Handicapper Tips & Picks

The Sun Contention and higher 63 SpeedRate presents a hurdle/vulnerabilities on #6 NITROGEN as the projected (heavy) favorite in this spot. By contrast, that pace dynamic upgrades #1 AL JAFARA Q4 Square while showing confidence following B+ OptixGRADE in the 4/12 KEE allowance to step up to graded stakes company. 

Keying off the common races, the BC Juvenile Turf (G1) #9 NOBLE CONFESSOR (value) a maiden at the time recorded a B- OptixGRADE despite the 6th place outcome while racing inside/SAVED TRAFFIC; a higher OptixGRADE than ML favorite #1 ZULU KINGDOM (C+) as part of the DUEL (between horses) on the day. The two also from the Pilgrim (G2) a race won by ZULU KINGDOM though earning the same B OptixGRADE as NOBLE CONFESSOR one that had trip adversity that according to the OptixNOTES might have cost them the win on the day. 

While #9 FAR BRIDGE has valid credentials on class and speed figures, the distance change in noted here as it has been in the past and for a horse that following the Manhattan (G1) last year found their top form at the longer marathon turf distance races. That opens the door to others including stablemate #4 CARSON'S RUN one that holds the win at this course/distance with Saratoga Derby Invitational (G1) win last summer. The can be upgraded in their form cycle second off and making a MOVE GALLOP+ with the STRETCH projection out of the Fort Marcy (G2) last month. 

#2 INTERGRATION also fits with G1 form and competitive races in this form cycle. They projected to move up with the STRETCH from the Makers' Mile (G10 in April and did so despite a tough trip (B- /TACTIC- TRAFFIC ROOM) in the Turf Classic (G1) and back with F. Prat, the win rider the from Red Smith (G2) closing out 2024. 

#1 HILL ROAD recorded a speed figure in their B-/BTL effort in the BC Juvenile (G1) in line with the big three main rivals out of the KY Derby (G1) to respect in this race. Their return in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) was first off the layoff showing run against the dynamic and primarily out past the wire with a solid GALLOP+ - a sign of stamina to carry here with the STRETCH out in distance. That comes second off and from a solid effort in the Peter Pan (G3) showing gears as they had to briefly start-and-stop before moving into the clear and on their left/NO_LEAD taking over from the pacesetting place and show runners. Not only did they make up ground to CLOSE for the win and show class, they were the only horse to make up ground. They draw the rail (has raced behind horses each time stateside with no problem), find another rider change (in more than capable hands with I. Ortiz) and not one of those being knocks and will only further hold value given the attention on the other names in this race.

Such a nice race. Obviously there appear to be three main contenders but, in reality, only two of the eight look like toss outs.

Rain at Saratoga? Who knows. Track condition?

I don’t really think the pace of this race will be quite as fast as in the first two legs of the Triple Crown and that might favor Journalism, who tends to race closer to the pace. But he did lose to Sovereignty the only time they met. That race, the Kentucky Derby, was contested at this distance on a sloppy track.

Not sure if either of those factors were determining factors but they certainly have to be considered.

However, I am going to select 6-BAEZA for post a mild upset. For a runner that generally races close to the early pace, his trip in the Derby was a nightmare. There was no way he was going to get good position when starting from the 19 hole. He was forced to come from far back and the fact that he finished only a bit behind the winner was remarkable. With this far smaller field and a quick pace ahead of him, he could get the trip needed.

I hated to pick against 2-SOVEREIGNTY after choosing him in the Kentucky Derby. He’s fully rested with five weeks between races and three useful drills during that period. He’s going to be on his toes for this race.

7-JOURNALISM could easily win this. He has been so good in his career and his late surge to win the Preakness was certainly impressive. But he did lose to Sovereignty in their lone meeting, under similar conditions. The small decline in speed figures is also worth noting. Is he a little tired from his tough campaign?

5-CRUDO might make things interesting. He never raced against this type and his speed figures pale in comparison to my top three but his last two wins were impressive. He’s the best speed and he’s bred to run all day. Might lull them to sleep on the front end.

Such a nice race. Obviously there appear to be three main contenders but, in reality, only two of the eight look like toss outs.

Rain at Saratoga? Who knows. Track condition?

I don’t really think the pace of this race will be quite as fast as in the first two legs of the Triple Crown and that might favor Journalism, who tends to race closer to the pace. But he did lose to Sovereignty the only time they met. That race, the Kentucky Derby, was contested at this distance on a sloppy track.

Not sure if either of those factors were determining factors but they certainly have to be considered.

However, I am going to select 6-BAEZA for post a mild upset. For a runner that generally races close to the early pace, his trip in the Derby was a nightmare. There was no way he was going to get good position when starting from the 19 hole. He was forced to come from far back and the fact that he finished only a bit behind the winner was remarkable. With this far smaller field and a quick pace ahead of him, he could get the trip needed.

I hated to pick against 2-SOVEREIGNTY after choosing him in the Kentucky Derby. He’s fully rested with five weeks between races and three useful drills during that period. He’s going to be on his toes for this race.

7-JOURNALISM could easily win this. He has been so good in his career and his late surge to win the Preakness was certainly impressive. But he did lose to Sovereignty in their lone meeting, under similar conditions. The small decline in speed figures is also worth noting. Is he a little tired from his tough campaign?

5-CRUDO might make things interesting. He never raced against this type and his speed figures pale in comparison to my top three but his last two wins were impressive. He’s the best speed and he’s bred to run all day. Might lull them to sleep on the front end.