Handicapper Tips & Picks

Looking at the Plot, it is clear the pace should be set and honest with both #4 MAMBA OUT and #8 BIG SALLY both in Q1 and above the par line. Both showing up off wins, at the shorter distances and landing on this circuit could open up the race to stalk-and-pounce types - while at the same time will give #6 LADY ATLANTIC a longshot look and perhaps part of the early pace with a clear break return to 6f with the rider change.

In terms of the tracking runners - #1 JOLIE RULER (stablemate to MAMBA OUT) should look to save ground with their tracking runstyle and similar for #2 GO STORMIN GIRL first off the claim and one of two for H. Rodriguez/Valla also represented by #3 PRANCIPANTS also exiting a FP win 19-days ago.

Those two will look for first run on #7 AWESOME SUNDAY a solid closer represented by the Plot position/Square with the slight addition of ground while also coming off a win and number wise a touch lighter than others when looking at the Past 3 Runlines along with today’s 78-70 par. #9 TALL GIRL holds the figures in ran and significant class relief with the main unknown today’s shorter distance, that a bigger question mark than the dirt especially as they land here with the positive change in post from the rail last out to the outside here. 

In terms of the established types: #5 ABUNDANCE makes a lateral change when looking at par from the $30k MCL event back in April at KEE while also a slight FLOW upgrade and opposite X_FLOW upgrade from the 2/22 grass race at GP. #3 FAYETTE SPIRIT is who they are, an established type with the connections looking to keep them protected while showing up on this circuit for the first time and perhaps just looking for the circuit switch to find natural class relief, however this field is now “weak” and they will require their peak effort and racing luck. Today’s par is relief for #7 TRAITOUR one that also requires a top effort (while presenting surface versatility) and at the same time could get attention following a place finish, a very distant place finish behind the open length chalk winner back on 4/4 at EVD that rival, Interlude, raced with a similar trip to TRAITOUR on the day.

FTS #8 GOBEKLI has been looking for the right spot to run on grass and landing here where they will race on this circuit protected and scratching from a $32k MCL 8.5f race a few days ago (6/4) at HS Indy with this spot taken. #6 RODAVLAS could be overlooked wheeling back for this second start in what appeared a PREP for the debut on 4/20. The race should assist on fitness and conditioning while the race holding form with three next out winners.

That also includes a next out place finisher in #4 TAUNTING overall consistent type recording B- OptixGRADE and progressive figures in each of the four starts to date. They also have been consistent in the habit of breaking SLOG (RUSH, TROUBLE_S) and even going back to the grass race last year while making up ground into a Slow early (and Very Slow late) pace and perhaps looks to show more tactical speed here. Stablemate #2 NITSCHKE returns for a belated second start where some upside can be projected from the debut late last season. While the made a positive PRERACE+ appearance they raced GREEN breaking SLOG and racing WIDE. The higher par for that 10/10 race noted while coming back as a 4yo here.

J. Haran also with a pair and the two #1 SKIBIDI RIZZ and #9 TEXAS CYCLONE (MTO) in this spot both present individual upside from their races at OP though no real edge in here. 

The early pace should be honest with #2 RACARINO inside and #7 UNCAPTURED PULSE outside those two with tactical speed that should also be joined by #3 HURTS SO BAD with that trio taking up Q1. That should also tracking trip for both: #1 ONE PUTT RICHIE returning to this circuit and class level along with O. Mojica, the rider aboard and playing a role in their two recent wins; #4 STINGY looked to benefit from the “ultimate equipment change” as a gelding for the 5/29 race and following the 5/8 race when very studdish PRERACE- appearance. Those two with the positional jump and closing ability (Square) on #5 SON OF GRACE.

#6 TRY TRY AGAIN also sitting in Q4 as a Circle though in part to the two return races this year and showing improvement race-to-race with progressive OptixGRADES to not discount completely by the Plot. They appear to be racing into condition noting the WASTED energy prerace off the layoff while WIDE and PREP on 4/27 while racing NO_PUSH on 5/8 something clearly impacting the Plot position and shape. 

#3 MONDOGETSBUCKETS will be tested against winners though tested since their first two starts in contentious MSW company at CD showed some class, class that has carried this year with the adversity coming off the layoff on 3/30 and followed up with the score three weeks later. Those two races tougher battles in each has been given time and noted scratch when entered under similar conditions on 5/22 (worked 2 days later 5/24) to regroup (49 days) before landing here to hold their form where another top effort is required to win. 

C. Block also with the returning #1 GOOD APPLE one that started off the 2024 season strong and held their form and figures consistently through the summer. Interestingly, that O. Mojica their rider in the two wins and many of the minor finishers lands with MONDOGETSBUCKETS something that could point to intent with the pair.

While noting rider changes and in the case of MONDOGETSBUCKETS when entered last month they were assigned with J. Loveberry the rider picking up on #7 LAST MINUTE for L. Rivelli as they make their belated return to the races. They have been entered twice this year (and scratch from a route allowance at PRM last September) with the connections clearly patient with this one overall and given the layoff history, waiting for the ideal spot. They bring in early speed as noted with the B+ maiden score last July and noted runstyle that could be tough to catch while #8 DICK BEST is more on the route-speed and #6 GOOD SWEEP seems to prefer a target to chase and #2 GOOD TO BE PRINCE with some early speed while not a confirmed need-the-lead type. #4 STROPE and even #5 BALADINE could press, while class is their biggest hurdle back at this allowance level/circuit. 

Another unique Plot with the Snowflake Contention paired with the higher than average 56 SpeedRate taking into account runners coming out of sprints and/or main track events. That includes #7 DAPPER DUDE one that is arguably better (at least so imo) on the turf wheeling right back with that surface switch here and some subtle class relief as well. Number wise their efforts on the turf stack up right in line with #4 TEMPER TANTRUM one capable though likely a big favorite here coming off the two recent wins and with the connections involved.

The other E. Rodriguez runner #8 ROTARY DIAL has plenty of foundation though less-proven on the turf and even for the route distance as the stretch back out for the first time in a long time here. From the recent sprints and with the post position they should be out showing early speed, a change from the 5/25 race noting the SLOG SAVED (rail draw) and put in a sneaky CLOSE X_FLOW to upgrade all around.

Back numbers and class along with Surface/Distance (with the higher SpeedRate) give #3 MR. UNIVERSE a look, though must return to those efforts as the two starts this season would not make the cut – though to be fair and with the long layoff should benefit from the racing and if they are to return to a peak effort this reasonable could be the time and place.

#9 MILLARD’S SMILE (MTO) was sneaky BTL in their 3/22 show finish all things considered and racing three times that month has been given the 78-days to reset returning to Hawthorne for this meet. 

The Plot is similar to Race 5 with the Snowflake Contention and honest 45 SpeedRate with the subtle change in individuals as six of the nine sharing the E or EP runstyle. That does not include #3 VANISKY one that has the Plot position change and perhaps even upgrade on Standard moving to a Q1 Square with the stretch out in distance.

#5 FAMILY TRADITION does not change position in Q2 just subtle with the shape moving to a Square. Their bring in form from the starts at Oaklawn and progressive OptixGRADES as shown in the Past 3 Runlines.

As far as the Q4 runners, #4 LAND MARK DEAL drops down in that Plot position a subtle change from their recent races with Q2 position and something that should be accounted for with price compensation especially on the win end. #6 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR has a mismatch with runstyle and Plot position though has been effective from Q4 while one that can show tactical speed and returning with a rider change following a TACTIC- (and CLOSE) on 5/11 impacting their finishing position. 

#6 LICENSE TO STEAL project to move up on the TURF and did just that closing out 2024. They return from the layoff here with the form and figures in line with today’s par and noted key class change making the move from MSW to MCL company – just one of a few in this field first time in for a tag.

#7 WOLF HUNTER also returning from the layoff and plenty of races to date though many at the MSW level and with the most competitive races in MCL company including the two starts closing out 2024 both compromised with trip and race shape – subtle flow upgrades.

The TURF Projected was noted for #9 RAGNOW (and #3 RAYFIELD) as they held their form and another place outcome in the 5/18 start with a WIDE trip and should continue to hold their form under similar conditions here and similar for #4 DYNO WAR also with the TURF Projections back on 4/13 and moved up number wise on the grass in the 5/11 race.

The change in par and purse is noted for #5 BOURBON STREET BOY and a slightly new face on that front landing here and making some changes while also presenting as a slight flow upgrade as part of the early pace in the CD starts. Number wise #8 CASH APP MIKE is on the lighter side, though took a step forward on this circuit and with the surface switch to the grass last month. The STRETCH out in distance fits as a positive for this individual as well to help with another move forward. Number wise #10 ROYAL AND READY also on the lighter side though one that should be monitored prerace as this season they have lost their race (MANIC, WASTED) before even leaving the paddock. 

#8 SHARP STICK fits as a contender in this spot. They returned protected off the layoff in the shorter sprint back on 4/10 followed up with a legitimate EX (equipment) on 5/1 and while looking for the turf upgraded X_FLOW in the 5/22 common race. Given the “trips” this year they have not had a chance to show their best and today presents that opportunity.

#4 SIXWILLBERICH bring in current form and class relief with the higher par back on 4/30 and upgrade from the TROUBLES+ (tangled break) and MOVE X_FLOW in a strong effort all things considered. They have shown surface and runstyle versatility while a fit on class and speed as well.

Also from the 5/22 common race, #2 NEW YEAR SURPRISE makes their second start of the season and back to the turf the intended surface. Class wise they find relief with a lower par and condition while also presenting a s a flow upgrade part of the Very Fast early and late pace on the day and holding show behind the winner, #10 LITTLE STEVEN one that paired up wins though HARD efforts in both to project at the least regression and look for alternatives if they land at shorter odds.

In addition to LITTLE STEVEN, trainer C. Winebaugh represented by #7 WICKED SURPRISE one that might have to revert back to a tracking runstyle with other E/EP types in this field as far as trip. Trip should be noted in the two starts this season with the TACTIC- returning from the layoff on 5/15 and TROUBLE_S SAVED with a NO_PUSH on 5/29 appearing no worse for the wear on the 10-day turnaround.

While the Snowflake and lower SpeedRate are noted there are still many EP Types and more than half of the field to the left of the y-axis something to upgrade not only SIXWILLBERICH but could even consider #1 LINE TO GAIN in that role and #3 EL MUCHO where a top effort is key though handled the turf with a sneaky good effort on 5/15 with ground loss/X_WIDE trip. 

Wonder if the addition of Lasix for 5-RAINY MOUNTAIN will be a factor as the 7yo gets it for the first time. She figures to rate and rally. 8-BIG SALLY has speed. She raced protected with the waiver last out and won easily. 4-MAMBA OUT is the other speed of the field. Not sure she's as fast as Big Sally early but that could benefit her actually if she shows she can rate.

Just taking a shot on the connections here with 2-NITSCHKE as Loveberry rides for Block. He didn't show a thing in his debut but has worked well toward his return. I expect improvement at a price. 3-FAYETTE SPIRIT ships in for Robert Medina as he has been right there numerous times. I expect he is a factor again as he approaches $100k in career earnings despite still being a maiden. 5-ABUNDANCE was claimed in his last as he ran a figure on grass two back that should make him a major threat. He will need pace to chase as he will be flying late.

Trainer Max Quinonez has had a great meet as he sends out 2-RACARINO in here. The horse has tactical speed as he shouldn't be too far back at any point today. 1-ONE PUTT RICHIE gets Mojica back in the saddle as he ran well with him aboard in both starts on the meet. Look for him to settle mid-pack early and run on late. 3-HURTS SO BAD is one of the speed threats as he has been at his best at Hawthorne. Centeno fits him well and is back aboard.

A good allowance field with all in with a shot. 6-GOLD SWEEP makes his second start for Haran and he comes off an effort where he made a belated bid in his last. There looks to be enough pace in the race as he should be charging late. 7-LAST MINUTE makes his first start of the year. He was an east winner in his maiden score last July and and worked well toward his return. Let's see how much action he takes in here. 8-DICK BEST ran a big race in his last and nearly got the job done. He will benefit from the pace ahead of him early as he should be a factor late.

4-TEMPER TANTRUM has been sharp in both starts this year on the grass. He rated closer behind a slow pace when Loveberry rode two back as that could be a similar trip again today. 8-ROTARY DIAL posted a good sprint effort in his last as he has some late run. That was his first grass start as he shows his versatility at the age of seven. 7-DAPPER DUDE was a big price on grass two back and ran a big race in that spot. He may have to sit a bit closer early in here but could grind things out in the lane.

A very evenly matched race with a field that could be bunched up. Looking for a price with 5-FAMILY TRADITION as he comes off an improved effort in his second start of the meet. He should get a similar trip early and run on late, 7-ALYANAABI has some speed as he may be best suited sending for the front. If he can clear early and back things down he has the potential to steal this race. 2-STRONGER TOGETHER drops off the claim as he is the other who potentially could show speed. He was good in his first start of the meet but that last race and the class drop leaves some questions.

The price will be short but 6-LICENSE TO STEAL appears to be very tough to beat in here. The only concern is that this is his first start of the meet but he has worked well and worked consistently toward his return. 7-WOLF HUNTER has had some turf success as he also makes his first start of the year. He has just the one work toward his return as I worry that he could come up a bit short in this spot. 9-RAGNOW has already gotten a race on the turf and is fit off three consecutive second place efforts. I wouldn't be surprised if he showed some speed in here and hung around late.

A couple with potential speed in here, both from the barn of Cheryl Winebaugh as I'm hoping Little Steven is sent and 7-WICKED SUPRISE is the one to rate and look to pounce. Wicked Suprise has been solid on the grass and is fit off a couple of starts on the meet. The move back to the grass should boost him up in here. 8-SHARP STICK runs for the Hernandez barn, which has had a very solid season. He also has had turf success and shouldn't be too far back at any point. 12-NEON DEION won a turf sprint in his last and stretches out in here. He may need to hustle a bit early for position as he merits a look off his victory in his last.

This appears to be a fairly evenly-matched field. But I think I’m going to go with 2-GO STORMIN GIRL. She hasn’t been her typically good self so far this year, but she was claimed from last by a far hotter barn and they win with a hefty 41% of their first time claims. This mare has been so good here in the past. Expect her to wake up. 5-RAINY MOUNTAIN drops and gets first Lasix. She won her first race of the meet but did little in the two races since. The first Lasix could make a world of difference. 8-BIG SALLY has reeled off three straight victories, displaying sharp speed in all of them and in most of her prior races. She is probably the quickest member of this field but not sure she’ll get the lead and be able to hold in while meeting somewhat tougher rivals. 

3-FAYETTE SPIRIT has had 18 maiden races including 12 on turf and remains a maiden. However, he has had some pretty good races on the lawn and all of them were against possibly better rivals. He had a good drill since finishing third in a turf race in Indiana last month. Puts blinkers back on for this race. It could finally be his graduation day.  You can never toss out Chris Block runners, especially on the lawn. He has two entered in this race. Neither showed much in limited turf races but both are certainly capable of improving. 4-TAUNTING might be the better of the two. He’s still only three. He split the field last year when making his lone turf start but think he could wind up being the quickest of these if the race stays on grass. He’s stretching out for the first time this year. Might be setting the fractions. The other Block runner, 2-NITSCHEKE beat only one runner in his lone race, a maiden start here last year. However, he’s regally bred and he has a strong workout pattern coming into this race. Deserves another chance. 

This race is full of contenders but think 1-ONE PUTT RICHIE could hold a slight edge. He’s been in good form and he’s dropping back to the right level. Could outfinish them all. My main concern with 2-RACARINO is the six-furlong distance. He has managed to win only one in 13 tries and he does have the tendency to kind of fade late. Like top choice, he’s in good form and he did beat that rival the last time they met but that race was at five and a half. It could be a different story at this distance. 3-HURTS SO BAD and 7-UNCAPTURED PULSE could be fighting it out on the front end and STINGY might add to the early pace. Uncaptured Pulse wired the field in last while Hurts So Bad wired fields in two of his last five

4-TEMPER TANTRUM should be the one to beat. He reeled off two straight victories, utilizing a good late move to do it. Seems to be meeting somewhat easier in this field. Can make it three in a row. 1-GENERAL ISSUE’s turf debut wasn’t terrible considering he was in against superior rivals. Drops into an easier spot. Looking for marked improvement. Have to give 3-MR UNIVERSE one more chance. He finished up the track in both local starts but he had been away nearly three years. He’s back on the lawn, his preferred surface, for this contest. Maybe 

9-JET FLIGHT stretches out. His last two sprints were good but he has always seemed better going long. He could finish with authority. 2-STRONGER TOGETHER drops off the claim which could be a good thing or a bad thing. Is he dropping just to get an easy win and maybe get claimed again or was his poor showing in his last start a sign that he’s off form. Guess we’ll see. 3-VANISKY, like top choice, stretches out. He finished second in his last two races, both sprints, but he had been a route runner for most of his career.  

6-LICENSE TO STEAL raced competitively in all his turf starts and he was facing better in all of them. Drops into maiden claimers for his first start since October. Has a log series of drills coming into this race. Looks ready. 9-RAGNOW has been in good form since stretching out with three straight second-place finishes including last, his turf debut. He should never be far off the lead. Could outlast the rest.  5-BOURBON STREET BOY could be an interesting runner. He’s making his first start for this barn and his first race outside of Kentucky. He appears to be the quickest of these and he sports a great turf pedigree. He’ll be on the early lead. The question is for how long? 

Interesting mix of runners jumping in claiming price while others are dropping in class. So many of them have various degrees of early speed. I’m not in love with 8-SHARP STICK but he is dropping in class, he ran well in most of his turf starts, and he has shown the ability to launch a late move when warranted. 9-MAN ON ATTACK could be meeting his easiest field ever. He’s among the best of the speed and he has a history on running well on this course, including a narrow loss in a state-bred stakes race here a year ago. 4-SIXWILLBERICH moves up in class. However, he looked sharp winning his last grass race. That race took place last August, but he does look like one of the few in this field capable of making a late run.