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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri July 4th, 2025

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Emily's Analysis

Ellis Park Race 1

Post Time 11:50 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 YUMA'S SHADOW will be tested back on the dirt though otherwise a fit at this level and in current form. Coming back this year they put in a competitive effort off the layoff in Jan at TP and from there stepped up in class on 3/8 and raced above condition in the N3 on 3/29. The 6/4 trip came with a slight excuse with the TROUBLES+ and TACTIC- on hold after the contact at the break showing late interest. 

Intent appears to follow #1 STARCOURT for the connections returning to ELP and off the 66-day two month break and looking to return to a faster main track. 

Los Alamitos Tb Race 2

Post Time 3:28 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 SHANGHAI SUNRISE wheels right back from the 6/22 start and subtle change in class. They also find a favorable and subtle change in timing with this second off pattern and upside from the recent TACTIC- trip; raced on hold early and let run very late putting in a sneaky late MOVE.

Saratoga Race 2

Post Time 12:42 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

G. Weaver with the pair: #6 SIMONE showed run on debut while GREEN getting SHUFFLE while on COVER making a MOVE and continued to run on side-by-side with the pacesetting winner Quick Sand in the 5/31 debut. Following that CD debut she shipped to SAR and easy breeze-y in company with stablemate and today's rival #5 MISS MAGICAL the two together with MISS MAGICAL in front (lost focus briefly) at the wire and SIMONE coming back along her inside after the clock stopped with MISS MAGICAL seemingly easier of the two in the blowout move, taking the official time with a grain of salt only asked about a 1/4. 

Woodbine Race 7

Post Time 3:10 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 LOBBY BAR should hold value off the recent running lines and finishing positions. They fit today's race shape for the Surface/Distance and in a second-off pattern that has been effective in the past. The 5/31 return made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and following a WARM_UP broke SLOG making a WIDE MOVE behind the pacesetting 6-5 chalk winner Fighter In The Win with the added ground to move them up from the others in that common race.