Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 JOEY MUSCLES fits in this race as a solid contender. They sit ABOVE+ on class and finds a dynamic where they can compete and have been competitive under similar scenario in the past. The two most recent starts should keep the odds close to the ML given a subtle trip on 5/25 along with the class DROP and timing with the 13-day turnaround and NO_HANDLE on 6/7 impacted their outcome on the day and noted productivity of that event with all showing run next out with two of the five as next out winners and two others finishing in the money.

Looking at the Plot, the Fire Contention and five of the eight runners sharing the EP RunStyle. The majority of that group positioned in Q1 (including all four of the ML favorites) can assist runners from off the pace: #8 CONNIVING looked well intended with the return to SAR and show finish under a similar par on 6/8. The finds a subtle change with a shift to eh route side as well as the Fire back in Play as it was assisting their trip back on 4/19. #7 LOST IN ROME also from the 6/8 common race breaking SLOG and holding place while NO_LINE drifting out in the lane coming back on 6/29 with their habit of SLOG leaving a lot to do making a CLOSE for 5th. #3 HONORARY DEGREE is a legitimate longshot though also from that 6/8 common race showing run after a TROUBLES+ making an X_WIDE MOVE and did not appear the ideal timing wheeling back in a week for the 6/15 race. 

Their E. Jones stablemate #1 HATCH needs a turnaround though the case could be made after the fact so we do that first. HATCH does not "Plot" well though in part to placement and trips. Of the two E. Jones runners HATCH has been placed at a higher level and for many of the races late 2024 early 2025 protected after running competitively in claiming company. That solid form includes races at SAR that fit here and at that time turned into a popular claim playing a role in the placement for the current connections since. 

#7 FAR BRIDGE is logical though looking at the Plot does not have as strong of an edge in this race shape as a whole (arguably #5 WEBSLINGER the edge) with that to consider as FAR BRIDGE projects a heavy favorite and high use on the multirace tickets. 

#1 STARTING OVER steps back up to graded stakes company and moving forward since coming off the layoff. They have been competitive at the marathon type distance and in graded stakes company in the past with a similar dynamic. Side note they could get attention off the number recorded last month at DEL a number that should be taken with a grain of salt and the move forward second off on the day being a stronger factor of form than the "speed figures" in this case. 

#4 TUCSON showed a ton of ability and worked their way through the conditions before taking on graded stakes company. The step up was that all the way running in the Manhattan (G1) and should benefit from that race returning here and with the added ground. Value should hold as I. Ortiz shifts to #6 HARROW another like STARTING OVER earned the outlier speed figure in the DEL stakes last month & did so with a TACTIC+ ride.

FAR BRIDGE's stablemate #3 TAWNY PORT has run some competitive races while looking for a win for the first time in a long time. Their favorable Plot position is nothing new for them, as they have had favorable trips (often with Prat aboard) still coming up short on the win end. 

This race appears more competitive than the expected three favorites all capable though some hurdles: #1 ZARABELLA comes in with the stronger consistent figures though doing something new stretching out in distance. They share a runstyle with #2 HIBISCUS one that raced around two turns on debut though visually appeared ONE_TURN. Those two stretching out from the inside with early speed should keep #8 WORKOUT AFFAIR honest should they take up a front running role once again. 

#3 MIKELLE recorded a B OptixGRADE on debut last June as a 2yo and coming off the layoff had the lack of recency paired with a TROUBLE_S and in running TROUBLE impacting their race outcome and off the board at shorter odds. 

#10 BELLA CLASSICA projected to IMPROVE from the 5/25 debut and a legitimate TROUBLES+ coming back on 6/21 while showing run making a WIDE MOVE behind their first run stablemate winner, Innisfree Isle.

Second time starter #6 SUNLIT exits the 6/14 common race showing some run after the SLOG and racing in TRAFFIC appearing no worse for the wear wheeling right back in less than 30-days with a pair of solid works since. 

#9 NORTH YORK projected to move up with the shift back to the TURF and did just that making a WIDE CLOSE on 6/21 though could find a tougher group today.

#4 BORDER CZAR was heavily backed on debut and validated the "hype" showing B+ ability to win first out. They gave their rivals a head start with the SLOG/TROUBLE_S and from there made a MOVE and CLOSE to get up late. The start being notable as they might be a little more professional this time around and looks to have come out of the race well with three recorded works since the 6/7 start. 

No knocks on #5 ROSCAR in this spot as they project to be favored. They return under similar conditions to the two starts this season though a lower par than those two Tapeta races. The layoff return on 5/10 was BTL with a strong number and returned WARM on 6/22 paired with less than ideal TACTIC- playing a role in the outcome and perhaps even some decision with the rider change made here.

#4 MALIBU MAMBO finds class relief in this third start this season with the lower par and exiting the N3 events. The running lines and finishing positions can be assessed with trips (TROUBLE in the 6/1 layoff return) and extreme dynamic with the SPACED race shape on 6/21 making a WIDE MOVE with the top five together at the wire. 

#7 TWO WAY CROSSING needs some value to play though not without a chance to hold form and pair up wins coming back in here. They are not the most "win" type though to be fair they have rarely run a "bad" race.  

#3 FAULTFINDER has been looking for the TURF and "finds" it here. The timing could be right with the foundation from the races coming back off the layoff in May with forward progressing speed figures. 

#10 NASHYAN takes the class drop and could be sitting on a peak effort here and reason to suggest they have yet to have the chance to run their race. The debut last season on 10/5 showed early speed (FTS) though slight flow upgrade with the top three from off the pace. With some upside heading into the 11/6 race that was cut right from the TROUBLES+ given a complete EX_EXCUSE and the layoff that follow. They follow a similar second off pattern and while the 5/31 MSW race has not been "key" in the definitional sense the horses that have run back from that race held their form many in the money outcomes.

#5 CALL ME KAYKAY following a similar second-off pattern though does not find the class change, a lateral move from the races to date and the change to stretch out for the first time. Going back to last season they improved second off with the BTL effort in the 4th place 12/14 start and layoff that followed. Coming back from the layoff this year, they wore front wraps and competitive B- effort noting the SLOG/TROUBLE_S and MOVE through TRAFFIC. 

The change in class is closer to a lateral move for #1 TEXAS HOLIDAY and while the STRETCH is a positive for this second start this season, they appear the type that has shown who they are and number/class wise does not hold a big edge over the others in this field with the shorter projected number.