Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 CLOEY ATTACK looks to hold intent second off and the move back to statebred company for the first time in a long time. Her overall form and figures on the turf and sprinting fit on par and finds that key change in class landing a lower par here. In terms of current form, as noted second off while also showing run making a WIDE MOVE, something tougher to see with the running line and finishing position back on 6/26.

#8 FREEDOM LASS is having a full circle moment returning to the connections and Hawthorne where she started out her career late 2019. Since then she has been a consistent type out in California and consistent number wise in those races that fit clearly on par. That could carry here (and positive with the outside post) though still must overcome the returning long layoff (273-days) and doing something new the first time at this shorter 5.5f distance.

#1 DISGUISED DEVIL has ability and will be put to the test not only with the surface switch but taking on older for the first time. #6 KELLY’S GIRL also takes on older and winners for the first time and that includes her more established stablemate; #7 MISS MIKOS – one that earned the same C+ OptixGRADE as CLOEY ATTACK on 6/26 despite the change in outcome putting in a WIDE MOVE though with today’s shorter distance needs everything right on trip as well as a top effort – price compensation required. 

Looking at the Plot tough to ignore the Large Square above the ParLine in #4 GO STORMIN GIRL, her edge in this race and in the right conditions to pair up wins for H. Rodriguez also represented by #3 PRANCIPANTS. Perhaps if there is an edge for others it is on the front end looking at the two Q1 Runners:

#1 LOST SUNSET wheels back from a legitimate EX – EXCUSE less than two weeks ago. She did not have her chance to compete with the TACTIC- (rider change today) following the TROUBLES+ and RUSH in running TROUBLE was in hand/NO_PUSH late finishing in a blanket for show as the top two finished together and clear in a photo for the win.

#2 MAMBA OUT had less of a legitimate “ex” though perhaps not her day coming out of a different race on 7/3, just 10-days ago. She was reluctant to load and restless in the GATE made a RUSH COVER before backing up (NO_KEEP) and was NO_PUSH after. She appears no works for the wear right back and class relief as well.

A longshot case can be made for #5 TEXAS HOTTIE while taking the class drop on 6/19 was on a very quick 7-day turnaround for that race and class drop and less than ideal TACTIC- with the WIDE trip and less fancied than her stablemate (2.2-1) winner, Wildwood Queen. 

#1 ILLY SIMZ find considerable class relief returning from the 126-day layoff and first start on this circuit. She was entered under similar conditions going back to the first part of the meet, a 3/30 race, though might have needed more time since the ship and the three starts in shorter order during the OP meet. Each of the three starts held a higher par than today’s race and while the outcome can leave something to be desired the efforts showed run in spots and even slight flow-upgrade from the 2/14 start despite the PERFECT trip otherwise.

#5 SHARP ATTACK should hold intent with the change in class and in this second start back off the layoff. The two starts at this level last season both had some hurdles with the quick turnaround for the 5/26 race and flow upgrade with the route distance on 6/23. #4 WILD DREAMS technically finds class relief with the return to the level of her place finish back on 5/22 though closer to a lateral par from the 6/29 common race. That race at the higher level and first off the claim and 38-day break might benefit from the start and two week turnaround as well as a positive with J. Loveberry jumping back aboard despite the change in connections.

The 500-day layoff finds the return for #3 LIL CARRIE D as well as the change in class. Number wise she fits on par returning to a top effort and perhaps there is that opportunity with J. Felix aboard. Her overall record still presents some reservations and within that series has not often shown the willingness to pass horses – something we could see from Q4 Square #2 WAVE OF MEMORIES moving up late. The change in class is a big DROP and likely the right change for #6 ULALUME as she also returns from the layoff to make their belated second start. With that said, she does give up recency and a ready or not moment as she has been training post published works since the spring. 

#9 EVEN THE WIND can be a bit pace dependent though looking at today’s race dynamic with five of the 10 in the main body (potentially adding AE #11 DYNAMIS) listed as E/EP runstyle horses should have the pace to chase. They also move up to a Q2 Square on the Plot in here, a shift from the other two starts this season in Q4 and has been more effective when in Q1/2/3 looking through prior seasons. That trip is key as their current form and figures validate them in this spot as a contender.  

#5 HOBBS will get their chance to STRETCH out for the first time and look to be intent with the progress, improving Grades coming back in this third start off the layoff. They will also add blinkers to further intent and while that could show early speed.

#2 CANYON STREAK wheels right back for this second start of the cycle showing run in the CBY Derby noting the open length 1-2 pacesetting chalk winner, Sushi Man. Notably, CANYON STREAK was heavily washed out raced WIDE and progress brushing (TROUBLE-) making their MOVE for minors, a three horse blanket for those underneath spots. 

#4 IZZY’S MONSTER shows up as advertised sitting ABOVE+ on Speed, Plot and Class. As far as current form she returns from a slight 45-day freshening and perhaps needed running a new to with the dominant B+ win and figure on 4/20 and showing up in a highly contentious allowance on 5/3 at CD before wheeling right back on 5/29 with a TROUBLE trip impacting her from start to finish and overall outcome.

#5 LEGALLY LUCKY brings in recency and form back to the main track. That also comes with a rider change to project intent. She has been without a win since a dominant allowance score over this course and distance late last season (9/29) though has held her own since in some tougher claiming races at Oaklawn and competitive with the 6/12 B- effort making a WIDE RUSH and tough beat as the BOS with the pocket trip winner and today’s rival #6 AUTISM COMPASSION, those two together at the wire.

#8 NO NANNETTE NO has shown more tactical speed this year though that being a change from last season. Last season she was compromised with the placement and primarily race dynamic. Those things could change here and with a longshot look as she brings in current form, a confident change in class and J. Felix jumping back aboard, a rider that has been up and with success in the past including two wins. 

#7 DEAL’EM AND WEEP is deserving of the public support she received last out in this spot. Today’s change in class is key and while dominant/B+ breaking her maiden to close out 2024 she caught a lower par (WEAK) and along with the layoff was a significant step up in class for the 6/1 return, a race won by her stablemate Roar of Silence. DEAL’EM AND WEEP should benefit from the start, the class drop, slight distance change and hold fitness second off and from a WIDE trip.

#5 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN brings in current form and form back to F&M for just the second time this season, she as game in defeat by a strong rival in Catholic Sue back on 6/12, PRESSED and staying on well through a VF early pace. Tactically she has shown  early speed throughout her career though not a “one-way” type; she has shown she can pass horses and close. That tactic could work out in this field as there are other front running types and some of those coming out of dirt sprints to ensure an honest early pace.

#8 CHEVAL B also brings in current form and form likely buried with the recent running lines and finishing positions. The connections were ambitious following the maiden win to step up in allowance company though back on the grass, in what appears her ideal surface recorded an improved number in that 6/1 race. The connections dropped in to claiming company, a favorable change on 6/12 though timing perhaps not matching ideal with the 11-day turnaround and that along with the SLOG and WIDE trip impacted the effort on the day and return with the 31-day freshening to suggest she is sitting on her peak effort. 

A competitive race to close out the Sunday card with a case to be made for many individuals. The race shape is also competitive and looking contentious (higher SpeedRate) with the Standard Plot based on current form. That early contention looks to include the three inside runners with #2 BEAU SOLEIL and #3 RIETTA likely betting choices here though trip comes into play sharing that EP runstyle while lined up side by side. Will also credit #1 SCRAPPY PATCH as a legitimate longshot with the change in class while a positive surface switch to the TURF.

#4 VISIONISTA could be overlooked given the recent running lines though upgraded in today’s race shape and with current form slight change in distance, rider, and par from the returning allowance on 6/1.

As far as returning from recent wins all three #5 SURPRISE ME AGAIN, #7 CATHOLIC SUE and #10 BUTTONS AND LACE recorded B+ OptixGRADES in their respective races to suggest they can take the step up in class they are given here.

The placement in this spot and trip could be a hurdle on the win end for both #6 MY BUDDY BROOKS and #9 GET N TIPSY however there are things to respect and include for coverage, underneath and with the finale High Five wagering. 

Open the day on the grass. 6-KELLY'S GIRL ran big in her last, a solid maiden score. Has been to contend again. 8-FREEDOM LASS is proven on turf. The main concern here is if she will need a race off the layoff. 5-CLOEY ATTACK has tactical speed and has had success at the distance. Let's see if she can rate and run on late.

The claim of 4-GO STORMIN GIRL two starts back could prove to be a solid move. She has always been a game racehorse and fits well for this barn. 6-RUNNERS HEAT gets a little class relief which should benefit her today. Expect her to sit mid-pack and run on late. 3-PRANCIPANTS has run some solid sprints. She comes off a short rest but could get enough pace to chase.

Off her last start, and getting the added 16th, 5-SHARP ATTACK should be sitting on a good race today. She has speed and gets the bug in the saddle. 4-WILD DREAMS is the other with speed. She drops back down a notch after being claimed two back but fits well with these. 3-LIL CARRIE D has to hope the top two battle on the front end early. She can pick off horses late but has been away for over a year.

2-CANYON STREAK is proven on the turf as he returns from a stakes try in Minnesota in his last. Look for him to settle in the second flight early and try to get the jump on the closers. 9-EVEN THE WIND will be a bit further back early. He rallied a bit too late in his last couple but should be right there once again late. 8-SAWYER FOX has speed and could try to steal this one. He won going away off a lengthy layoff in his last and should be looking to clear once again.

Not much pace in here as 7-LADY HELENA could potentially look to scamper away early and try to steal this race. She was a winner around two turns in April and picks up Loveberry in the saddle. 4-IZZY'S MONSTER has the tactical speed to rate close early. She has been very good at Hawthorne throughout her career and especially at this distance. 6-AUTISM COMPASSION is the other that shouldn't be too far back in here. She has won two straight and runs protected once again.

This looks to be a two horse race to me. The question is if 9-SPINNING GLORY is able to get the jump on 7-DEAL'EM AND WEEP. Spinning Glory has a bit more early speed and should be able to tuck in just off the pace. Deal'em And Weep will be flying in the lane. 5-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN is the other with a bit of early speed. She ran well two back but was a mess in the gate in her last.

The Boyce barn has been very good all meet. She sends out 3-RIETTA in here as she should get a good stalking trip and look to take over in the lane. 6-MY BUDDY BROOKS showed speed in her last. If she can shake loose early, she may never look back. 9-GET N TIPSY figures to stalk in here and rally in the lane. She likely needed her last and could improve in this spot.

Would think that 8-FREEDOM LASS will be awfully tough. She spent most of her career in Southern California and held her own. She was sent to Louisiana last August where she was promptly claimed by this barn and they brought her here. She had one race, against good open claimers, and finished second. She’s making her first start of the year but she has been training well for a barn that brings them ready. She’ll be meeting Illinois breds for the first time. Her main obstacle could be the short distance of this race. 4-LALY might be interesting in this spot. She never ran on turf but her pedigree is sufficient. What makes her interesting is that she seems to hold a considerable speed advantage over her rivals. If she can handle grass, she could be long gone. 6-KELLY'S GIRL is another making her turf debut. Her barn isn’t known for their turf runners but they are off to a blistering start at the meet and her rider is atop the standings. 

Not in love with 4-GO STORMIN GIRL but she improved enough in her first start after getting claimed by this barn to win her first start for them and she’s eligible to improve even more the second time around. 2-MAMBA OUT was crushed in her first start after getting claimed by this barn but she was in much too tough. She could be the best speed with the drop to the right level. Might not get caught. Not sure what has happened to 1-LOST SUNSET. She always displayed good speed and was able to maintain it through most of her races. But, in her last two, she seemed to put on the brakes after vying for the early lead. Hard to gauge.

5-SHARP ATTACK could graduate. She was claimed last June and laid off for almost exactly a year. She took on tougher in her 2025 debut, where she raced under the waiver claiming rule, but now she drops to the right level. Could be on or near the lead throughout. 4-WILD DREAMS fought top pick for the lead in that last race and held on almost as long. She faded a little more but was still a credible effort. They could be fighting for the lead from start to finish today or they could tire themselves out and set things up for a runner making a late move. 1-ILLY SIMZ could awaken. All her races were against better at Oaklawn. The drop in claiming price and the change in venues could do her a world of good.

8-SAWYER FOX appears to be the quickest of these by far. He not only dominated runners in his first start since 2023 but he’s been working bullets at Churchill ever since. It’s possible that some of his rivals in here will try to soften him up fighting for the lead but it’s also possible that he’ll just leave them all in his dust. Even though I think the distance of this race will be too short for 9-EVEN THE WIND, the pace should set up perfectly for a closer and he fits that description better than any of his rivals. 2-CANYON STREAK is another likely to be coming on late. He was overmatched in stakes company at Canterbury in his first start for this barn but he might be facing somewhat softer, though not a lot, in this spot.

6-AUTISM COMPASSION could make it three in a row. She finished second in her first race after getting claimed by this barn and then went on to win her next two starts. All three of those races were at this level. She’s unlikely to go for the lead but will never be too far back and might be able to edge by late once again. 4-IZZY'S MONSTER could easily be the best of these. She beat $25k claimers in her first start of the year and then they shipped her to Churchill to take on much better. That race took its toll. But they brought her back here for her last race and she started to come back around. It's been nearly six weeks since that last race and she had only one drill during that time but she still deserves the benefit of the doubt. 5-LEGALLY LUCKY doesn’t always show it but she is probably one of the quicker members of this field. Ignore her last, she hates the turf. But she was narrowly beaten at this level two races back after leading from the start.

While not exactly a “match” race, 7-DEAL’EM N WEEP and 9-SPINNING GLORY just seem to hold a considerable advantage over the rest of the field. Both drop from allowance company where they made no impact. I’m giving Deal’em N Weep the nod because she seems better suited to the distance. She’s making her second start off the layoff, a 35% winning angle for her trainer. Spinning Glory is the quicker of the two and it seems unlikely that she’ll face many early challengers but she doesn’t run like she’ll appreciate the longer distance of this race. 5-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN is back to facing the ladies. This mare generally displays good speed when racing in the right spots. She’s not as quick as Spinning Glory but she could be leading the second tier and stay in the hunt throughout.

10-BUTTONS AND LACE couldn’t have broken her maiden much easier. She raced well back early but was never really asked and then she zoomed to the front under a hand ride and won going away. She’s probably meeting a bit tougher crew here but none have been able to crack the open allowance company. Guessing she’ll make it two in a row. 5-SUPRISE ME AGAIN showed little in her lone turf race but she has gone on to win three of her next seven races. It would be a mistake to ignore any runner this barn starts but especially on the lawn. Battle-tested 9-GET N TIPSY never won here but she’s had some good local races. She shipped here one time last year to take on rivals at this level and she finished third, less than a length back. She displays speed at times but she is at her best when she can finish with a full head of steam. 2-BEAU SOLEIL could be the best speed. She was only mildly competitive in her two turf races but both of those starts took place in Southern California.