Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 UNWRITTEN CODE brings in intent back to the main track with the change in class for the connections. Their early speed paired with the rail and shorter 5.5f distance presents a front running threat. 

#9 DISCREPENCY appears well-intended claimed for this DMR meet. They hold competitive races on this main track as well as this claiming condition and shorter sprint distance. They have been given a freshening since that claim back on 5/25 and upgrade with the trip on the day, a SLOG MOVE X_FLOW that impacted their race/speed figure on the day - that number, running line and finishing position should assist in holding value here. 

Would not be surprised to see #3 SAMMY DAVIS favored here as they can run and come into this race with strong series of works 

The connections of #6 TRANSCENDING have been very patient as she was working over the turf at DMR last summer and starting off this year in company with older graded stakes barnmate, Gold Phoenix. Given the patience and taking the time to get race ready this could be as good a time and place as any to return as a sophomore. Stablemate #7 MADONNA OF LORETA debuted over this course and 5f sprint distance showing run while GREEN breaking SLOG putting in a WIDE MOVE, that effort supported the step up in class to race as a longshot in the Juv Fillies Turf Stakes holding her own with IMPROVE visuals. Visuals that came into play returning from the layoff with the MSW win back in May and freshened for this second start of the year given time to recover after that HARD win effort. 

#8 ORIGAMI cane given a flow upgrade exiting the 6/15 route allowance making a RUSH NO_COVER into a Very Fast early (and VF late pace) and returning to a shorter turf sprint. The connections had shown intent with the stretch out following the three 5f turf sprint series overseas though perhaps at GP showed they wanted the sprint all along. 

#1 COMEBACK GIRL was a flow upgrade as part of the WIDE DUEL through a Fast early pace on debut and with the upgrade and post change picked up the MSW win and speed figures improvement on 5/26. They will be tested stepping up against winners and more subtly, like many others in here making the transition to the shorter 5f distance.  

#1 WILL THEN was outclassed (DROP) in the Edgewood (G2) and that could be a knock returning in G2 company, however today's G2 brings in a lower par (and lower purse $600k v $200k) to suggest they can compete in this spot. This also marks the return to DMR where she picked up black-type as a juvenile in the Jimmy Durante (G3) with a strong B+ effort. 

#8 AMERICAN PRIVILEGE earned a follow from their debut last November making a WIDE CLOSE X_FLOW. #3 UNBINDING capable to IMPROVE off effort in their stateside debut on 6/8. With TACTIC- following the SLOG they made a WIDE MOVE with the top two finishers together at the wire. #5 FOR ARROGATE has shown improving figures and following the "second off" pattern that allowed for  B OptixGRADE in the MTH race closing out 2024. The connections had considered running a week after the 6/7 return entered and scratched from the San Juan Capistrano (G3) - an interesting spot and timing and reasonable to waiting and pick this spot early in the meet. 

#2 FONDEST DREAMS makes a belated return to the races and earned a follow from their local debut, the Juv Fillies Turf last summer. While they appeared well-intended on the day they gave their rivals a head start, dwelt/VSLOG and from there held up (TACTIC-) off the pace showing run despite the running line and finishing position with IMPROVE visuals. 

There could be a scenario with #1 CHAIRMAN RAINBOW as the controlling, potentially lone speed. They will be tested to run back to a top effort though could bet he time with the change in class third off and flow upgrade with the Fast early/late pace and winner from off the pace on 6/22. 

#4 GOLDEN TEST was well-spotted and showed early speed with the change in class on 6/27. To their credit they stayed on as the BOS though looking through their prior starts they tend to track and finish, and could present that tactical change in here. 

The change in tactics could have been in part to common rival #3 BACK RIVER, a projected front runner with the TROUBLE_S and TACTIC- on hold rating with in running TROUBLE making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW. That trip overall will see a rider change today with S. Vives aboard and present more early speed as they have in the past. 

#7 ALZADO could be the right new face in this group with the change in class and surface. The outside post has been drawn in the two starts this season on the turf and unable to avoid WIDE trips in each. The races they exit have held form and even moved up horses with WIDE trips in those events. In addition, jockey E. Flores after riding only at 8% during June has started to pick things up in July aboard 23% winner (42% ITM) with a positive .27 ROI.  

As noted in R2 with E. Flores remaining aboard #3 FLORIDA VACATION following a TACTIC- in the 6/28 turf sprint. They showed some tactical speed then took back making a late CLOSE behind the open length winner Suigu Belle and alongside them on the GALLOP+. Going back to the 5/18 debut that race with a much higher race par than today and started with a long DELAY horses off behind the gate and a TROUBLE_S with C+ OptixGRADE. #6 JINX ME after the SLOG made a WIDE MOVE finishing in a blanket for show/minors and should appreciate the start and slight STRETCH in distance based on their physicality. 

A value case can be made for #6 OL' BLONDIE in this spot. The four inside runners all appear E types keeping the early pace honest should they all be allowed their runstyle to assist OL' BLONDIE with a tracking first run trip, even with the shorter 5.5f distance in play. Speed figures fit on par with a top effort and in terms of class, she picked up a win under similar conditions/distance last November and coming back this year in this second start back off the layoff for the new connections that dipped in for the claim in December, the closing weekend of the 2024 WO meet. 

#6 REALLY GOOD returns to the turf for the first time since 2023 - the place finish making a CLOSE through traffic to finish second in the Derby, the Hawthorne Derby. Class, distance, trip and timing has created some hurdles for them since and this spot looks favorable to get back on track finding a new barn and circuit. 

Their "stablemate" (same owner/different trainer) #12 EL KABONG also merits a look for similar angles finding a change in class and circuit finding most of their career tougher spots in KY. That has been the case and especially since coming back form the 409-day layoff to start 2024 running competitive races just short on the win end mostly at a higher par, mostly.