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Sun July 20th, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:43 PM CST
With one barn represented with a pair in this five horse field and that pair from strong debut barn L. Rivelli, the analysis starts there. Many of the published dates match up for the duo with #4 CHIEF MORTER given the faster published time from the gate on 7/13 over #5 CHI TOWN PRINCE. While that starts the handicapping on paper. This race starting off the card allows for more information as the board and paddock are necessary pieces of the handicapping puzzle and made available.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:19 PM CST
#2 GAVEL could be poised to be the second half off a L. Rivelli double returning from the layoff and patient waiting for this spot noting three scratches (twice at Hawthorne at the open $25k claiming level) since the 4/27 start. They could find the right scenario for their runstyle that is key for a horse that projects a shorter number lacking any strong edge on class/speed, though on par all the same.
Value sits with #3 CORTESE, a horse that has had some physical issues not just noting recent visuals but the pattern of layoff lines. That does require value, and at the same time could suggest a horse that comes out race ready off this type of break. The connections return to $25k claiming company and not a questionable drop, nothing they were claimed for $10k last October, was competitive in at the $25k claiming level last September and already scored the win at the higher OC/40 level back on 4/6 – an identical par to today.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:52 PM CST
The class DROP is key for #1 NEON DEION returning to the
turf and back to the level where they picked up the win back on 5/25. They have
held their form since with the late surface switch (WEATHER) on 6/8 and higher
par impacting the outcome on 6/26.
Keying back to the 5/25 common race #4 MAN ON ATTACK was in
the right spot to compete though perhaps not their ideal trip. They were asked
to show early speed for a horse that has route speed though not the same as
sprinting. A rider change coming back in here and sitting ABOVE+ on class could
be the key changes to compete today. Looking at the Standard Plot (current form)
MAN ON ATTACK should find a tracking trip and first run on that Q1/3 flight
that also includes common rival #7 NAGY AND DA BEARS.
#6 SHARP STICK is a bit of a “wild card” today as they makes
the distance change, the first time in a turf sprint and one that has had their
success around two turns. With that unknown on distance, they exchange class,
dropping to this lower par. For the first time as an older horse. In terms of
current form, it might not appear much “on paper” however recorded a solid figure
in the dirt sprint return on 4/10 followed that up with an EX – EXCUSE on 5/1, raced
X_FLOW on 5/22 and was first of the cycle on 6/29.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:28 PM CST
Looking at the Plot, #4 NEW YEAR SURPRISE presents the
controlling speed and even as a Large Circle (lack of finish though will discuss
why the shape is what it is in the next sentence) could present a front running
threat. The Large Circle in in part of the 5/22 and 6/8 dirt starts both of
those races with a Very Fast Early and Late race shape, playing a role in the “lack
of finish” and shown as a Circle here. They are also above the ParLine and
could find enough separation to clear early and the lower race par to hold
late.
Show finisher form the 6/8 common race, #6 SIXWILLBERICH
will look to get back to that effort and on a quick turnaround coming out of
the 7/12 FP start where they were in hand/NO_PUSH after losing ground in the
early stages.
#2 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE picked up a win under similar
conditions last season. They fell into a PERFECT trip on 6/15 and did pair up
the win by open lengths with the step up in class on 7/11, however caught a
lower par/WEAKER with that race moved to the main track and falling into a FREE
trip at the same time. There was also a different scenario at that time with the
benefit of racing as they return from the 214-day layoff today and has not had
this time of long layoff since a 384-day break back in November 20121 and finished
well off the board in that race, coming back in a second start with a strong
figure and place finish.
#3 DIAMOND DAVE has some reservations while coming off the
313-day layoff on 6/29 though now has the benefit of recency second off and
subtle change in class with a slightly lower par for this 10yo gelding, this
time around. The change in race par is significant for #1 SHADY MCGEE and also
in a second off portion of their form cycle. The connections could just be
looking for the right spot for a win (recent win 8/2024) and making a rider
change following the SLOG/TACTIC- just 10-days ago.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 5:00 PM CST
#2 ROARING VIXEN projected to move up with the surface switch
to TURF and will get another try on the grass with some changes. The number did
improve slightly and could once again given a slight flow upgrade chasing the
Very Fast early pace while making the key change from MSW to MCL for the first
time here. A similar flow upgrade follows #9 CATNIP HILL one that must also
find a way to run “faster” though the class DROP makes the right level of sense
to give them their best chance to do so.
#3 REIMAGINE has been looking for a positive surface switch return
to the TURF and in this spot also finding the right level and two turn distance
for their abilities. They started out last summer as a juvenile in the shorter
sprints waiting to STRETCH out while also needing the racing and DROP to find
the right level.
The change in class is noted for #1 TRINITYTHREEINONE after
an interesting TACTIC- and strong CLOSE where she had shown run in spots and
appears to be putting it all together. Looking at the Plot, she sits right in
line both on position and shape with rival REIMAGINE and projects much higher
of the two on the board.
Common rival #8 CHINATOWN GIRL showed some run in debut and
might have lost their race at the GATE (fractious) with a slight upgrade chasing
NO_COVER on a Fast (early/late) pace before NO_KEEP and NO_PUSH after. The
change in class is technically there for #6 UNKEPT PROMISES returning to this
circuit though finding closer to a lateral par from the pair of B- efforts on
4/24 and 5/15.
#7 D’ARGONAUT had a look coming back for a belated second
start and from a STRONG MSW debut last October at BAQ. That translated to a B
OptixGRADE under similar conditions in the 7/10 sprint they stretch out from
here.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:30 PM CST
#8 WINGING WAYS could
be tough to rundown on the front end as a solid Square near the ParLine in Q1.
If they find strong pace pressure from #7 LATE BLACKSMITH – one that is in the
same Plot position overlapping however not the same finishing ability as a
Circle – the trip could present favorable and first run for #1 TALLAPOOSA and
even longshot #6 CHAMPAGNE MIKE, one that took sneaky money on 7/3 (opening as
the favorite) and showing improvement as of late.
Trip could be tougher for Q4 Square, #1 ANCIENT MAN though
one that is not out of it. They have the pattern of SLOG while sprinting and
played a role back on 6/12 making a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ at the 5.f
distance and made a MOVE slightly flow aided with the place finish in the 7/3
common race.
The change in distance presents some unknowns for #4 STORM’S
REFLECTION and #5 LINE TO GAIN, two runners that find a key change in class
from their most recent starts and overall at the right level for their
abilities.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:59 PM CST
#3 DANVILLE has waited out of their time first off the claim
for this return and change in class. They present upside following the TACTIC-
and WIDE trip off a Very Slow early and late pace last month. They paired up
wins and B efforts at this level earlier this season. Trip should still be
considered with their runstyle though the pace projects to be honest with the
inside pair of #1 FLYING SAMURAI and #2 EUCLID AVENUE the latter holding the class
edge, though the change in class after competitive races, creates questions on
intent.
The change in class also noted for #9 REGIMENTAL though more
reasonable in this case taking the step up in the two starts following the 5/29
win and compromised with the timing and TACTIC- on 6/12 and the SLOG into that
Very Slow early/late pace on 7/6.
A value case can be made for #4 FIRST MASAMUNE looking at
the Plot and with now the main track and two-turn foundation.
#6 ROCKET HOTSHOT also returns fresh off the two month break
and might have required the time working to make a CLOSE X_FLOW (Slow early
pace) to score back on 5/18. Rested through June, they return with a pair of
works to get race ready and familiar hands with Giles back aboard. ON the topic
of working HARD both horse and rider with the B+ win from #7 JET FLIGHT/L.
Colon just 10-days ago and that timing paired with a shorter number is less
than ideal.
#8 CONTRABANDISTA could be live with their return to
Hawthorne for trainer K. Jansen - a barn that did not send any runners out
during the 2024 season, though had a solid 2023 campaign with two wins in nine
starters (22%) and another three finishing (56%) in the money.
Sun July 20th, 2025 |
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Jim's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:43 PM CST
Babies start the day as Rivelli has a pair in the opener. Based off works, 4-CHIEF MORTER looks to be tough. His most recent bullet from the gate was very quick as I expect to see speed early as he looks to wire the field. 1-BIG D just needs to get away from the rail. He may eventually want to go a bit longer but has worked consistently leading toward his debut. 2-BRIDGE CLASSIC could also show some speed as he debuts today. He hasn't worked longer than a quarter so we will see where the stamina is.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:19 PM CST
Let's see if Rivelli can take both ends of the double. He sends out 2-GAVEL in here as he comes off a near miss in his start at the end of April. He has three works since that start and should be ready off the bench. 1-WILDWOOD SICILIAN was a good winner at this level in his last. He comes back three weeks off that race as he figures to rate close early. If he can sneak away, there's potential he could steal this race. 6-MISTER KELLY has tactical speed as he was a good third behind Wildwood Sicilian last out. The track and distance suit and the price should be right..
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:52 PM CST
Not much pace in this turf sprint. The pace in here seems to be coming from 7-NAGY AND DA BEARS as he takes a class drop off a good second in his last. If he can shake loose early he could potentially wire this field. 4-MAN ON ATTACK comes off a layoff as he chased in his last before giving way. He has the ability to settle close early in here and hang around late. 6-SHARP ATTACK hasn't sprinted much but merits a look as he shortens up off his turf start last out. I'll be curious to see how much action he takes in here.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:28 PM CST
There's no pace in this race. Curious to see if 4-NEW YEAR SURPRISE looks to go early and try to back things down on the front end. He ran a decent race in the slop two back and finds things easier in here. 1-SHADY MCGEE (IRE) has spent the majority of his time recently on the grass. He has had some past main track success and takes a drop in class in here. 6-SIXWILLBERICH could be another that possibly shows some speed. He chased at Fairmount in his last before giving way into the lane. Give him another shot with the shift back to Hawthorne.
Hawthorne Race 5 - PLAY OF THE DAY
Post Time 5:00 PM CST
Tough race here with a large field on the grass. Off her recent sprint, 7-D'ARGONAUT could be a threat to show some early speed and hang around into the lane. The barn has had a fine meet and the quick return off her first start of the meet may be a positive. 10-I'M HUNGOVER makes her second career start after facing tougher in her debut. She got away slowly in the sprint but actually ran well and galloped out nicely after the wire in that spot. Expect more in her second career start. 3-REIMAGINE has had some near misses as she looks to contend. She ships in from Indiana for today's race and picks up Loveberry in the saddle. Expect her to be a factor throughout.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:30 PM CST
It sure looks like 8-WINGING WAYS is a standout in here. He has speed, just missed in his last, and looks to be clear on the lead. I don't think any others in here can keep up with him early. 2-ANCIENT MAN is at his best sprinting and looks to be the price play today. He was flying late in his last and I like that Ulloa is back in the saddle. 1-TALLAPOOSA has enough tactical speed to chase early and hang around late. He was a mess at the gate in his last as that has been an issue for him at times.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:59 PM CST
He's been really good in his last four and there's no reason to think he won't be a threat once again as 1-FLYING SAMURAI draws the rail. The only real question will be how he handles the rider change as Troxtell had ridden him very well in recent starts and he shifts to Tavares in here. Let's see what he shows us in here. 6-ROCKET HOTSHOT rallied for a solid win in his last. He's going to need some pace to chase but has had a lot of success over the track and is another that could offer some value. 3-DANVILLE figures to take action in here as he comes off the rest. He was claimed out of his last and drops in class so we will see if this is a look to grab a win and get claimed once again.
Sun July 20th, 2025 |
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Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:43 PM CST
One interesting note...four of the five runners in this race are homebreds. Of course, we’ll start with the two Rivelli-trained runners. 4-CHIEF MORTER will likely get most of the action since he’ll be utilizing the barns primary rider and the fact that he popped a bullet gate drill, outworking older and runners not breaking from the gate. However, until that work, the other Rivelli runner, 5-CHI TOWN PRINCE had better, and more, drills. Don’t ignore. Trainer Chris Block is having an outstanding meet and the works on his first timer, 1-BIG D, suggest he has another ready to win. 2-BRIDGE CLASSIC, the only purchased runner, has also been training well. Perez-trained runners often need a race but this one works like he’s ready. 3-MY LITTLE SOLIN is another with decent drills but like Bridge Classic, he’s only had four works and none longer than three furlongs. Would be too surprised if he needed a race or two.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:19 PM CST
1-WILDWOOD SICILIAN could win right back. He gamely fought for the lead in last, never more than a length back, and still managed to draw clear late. That was his second race off the layoff. He could be even tighter for this race. 2-GAVEL hasn’t raced since the end of April but he has always been successful off similar layoffs. He just missed in last after winning his previous start. Beaten favorite could make amends. Not sure there will be enough pace to set up for 3-CORTESE but he’s capable of closing with a rush. He had some traffic woes in his last at Fairmount but he dominated a group similar to this in his previous start.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:52 PM CST
No standouts in this race but will go with 7-NAGY AND DA BEARS. He was beaten as the favorite two races back, the last time he raced at this level, but he was making his first start of the year. Came back with a strong second-place finish versus allowance company in last. Drops back in for a tag. Could be the first to cross the wire. 1-NEON DEION finished well behind top choice the last time they met but he also beat him, finishing first, three races back. He’s capable of running well on or off the lead and he’s equally adept on turf or dirt. 5-MANCHESTER is the sleeper. He’s had two turf races and ran well in both. Not sure I trust the speed figures from where he’s been racing but he just might turn out to be the best of the speed.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:28 PM CST
4-NEW YEAR SURPRISE always faced better. He has been racing primarily on turf lately and the majority of his success came on the weeds but his recent dirt races have been far better than his recent efforts on grass. 6-SIXWILLBERICH is still eligible for a non-winners of three but he possesses some of the highest recent dirt speed figures of any in here, with the exception of a terrible effort at Fairmount last time out. He finished 3rd at the $12,500 claiming level here two races back. A return to that form would make him a top contender in this spot. Only two of 1-SHADY MCGEE’s 50 races were contested on dirt and both were run on “off” tracks. He failed to make much of an impact in those races. However, he’s dropping to the lowest level of his career for this event. Would be a mistake to count him out.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 5:00 PM CST
3-REIMAGINE is a threat on turf or on dirt, if this race does come off the lawn. She finished up the track in last but finished second in her prior two races. Drops in claiming price. Could finally earn her diploma. 12-BALLYBAY BEAUTY is entered for main track only but there is a chance that this race will come off the turf. This would be her first two-turn dirt race but she narrowly missed the last time she ran on dirt and she should be able to improve from the experience. 7-D'ARGONAUT just missed in a turf sprint. That was her first race of the year. She finished up the track in her only other race but that was a maiden special on dirt in New York. She might thrive on this circuit.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:30 PM CST
8-WINGING WAYS moves up a notch but he should still be difficult to beat. He's easily the quickest of this group. Makes his second start after a layoff and only his third start of the year. Catch me! 1-TALLAPOOSA will be tracking the pace. He had been in competitive form but this beaten favorite of last was acting up prior to the race and was reluctant to load. Using up that kind of energy before a race often results in a poor effort. Can bounce back and be a top contender if he relaxes. 2-ANCIENT MAN closed well to finish second when they turned him back in distance for last. He went off at over 30-1 in that race. He’s likely to be a big price again today. Wouldn’t leave him out of the vertical gimmicks.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:59 PM CST
2-EUCLID AVENUE drops back to an easier level. He was simply overmatched in last and finished like it but he won a $12,500 claimer two races back and he’ll be meeting an easier field than that today. Not exactly sure why these connections claimed 3-DANVILLE from last, they generally run more high-profile horses, but this old timer might still have some life left in him and it could come out for his newest barn. He can close a ton when he fires. 1-FLYING SAMURAI has been the model of consistency lately. You know he’s going to be heading right to the lead. He led from the start in his last four races, winning one and finishing second in the other three. Should be right there once again.