Handicapper Tips & Picks

Tough to split the two L. Rivelli FTS fillies on paper as #4 TIZ CHINA and #5 GREAT OWL both bring in live riders, an identical series of drills with timing and distance while times can be slightly different. This is not something unknown and a pattern used with similar runners this season. The edge with some of the faster times sides with TIZ CHINA with that often leading to the shorter odds, though not an overall “lock” as the longer of the two angle has been successful this season on more than one occasion.

The series of works is solid for #2 CLOUDY LASS with even spacing and a positive mix of both speed and stamina in the published drills – an edge on that front over #1 LAST CANDY, the lone IL-Bred in the field.

In terms of experience #3 BOOM BOOM BELL has moved forward with each start though still could be required to show more and the door open to one of the new faces to jump up on the win end. #6 SHE’S TOPS was entered to debut on 7/10 however was a late scratch needing a shoe repair and that unable to be fulfilled in the time required to race. A work followed recorded on 7/19, and L. Colon named on the day holds the assignment once again. 

From looking at the Plot from a race shape standpoint, the early pace should be honest (Fire/50 SpeedRate) even as #2 RACARINO has the edge as a Q1 Square – their presence above the ParLine along with #3 BREAKING NEWS and #4 OFF TO THE RACES could assist runners from off the pace.

The Large Square of #6 MON AMI FUZZIE is tough to dismiss in this case and should have the pace to Close into. They fit with the ABOVE designation on Class and changing things up back to a sprint for the first time this season and since when live picking up the two-turn win with a WIDE trip over this course back on 3/30, the first part of the season. Needing some time following that win, this marks the third start of the current form cycle and should be fit off those races and the WIDE trips in both with progressive OptixGRADES into this event.

Perhaps this could be the time and place for #1 CHRISTMAS PRESENT to return to form. They have shown an “every other” forward pattern in their races this seasons and would be key to get a look at them in the paddock and for an equipment change as they have returned with the front wraps this year, a change for the first time in their career.

#5 ALVIN is a legitimate longshot with softer numbers compared to their rivals and race par, though will respect they bring in current form and a class change from the higher claiming events since their claim for these current connections suggesting some intent. 

Sticking with the Plot theme, #6 MY LADY SLEW looks to hold a solid front end pace advantage as a clear Q1 runner and while a Circle they have separation on the others while positioned near the ParLine. In terms of class, that was a question par back on 5/18 picking up the win that day though had the inside and pace advantage to carry, looking for a similar scenario and outcome coming back from the 70-day break.

#4 CURLS NITE OUT has shown some tactical speed, granted it has been in races with Very Slow race shapes including the two most recent starts and even going back to the upset win on 3/27. Those recent races are notable with higher par events including racing as the lone 3yo in the field on 6/12 – a race won by their stablemate Suprise Me Again and likely played a role in the age restricted placement earlier this month at HS Indy. The class edge is notable here and going back to last season visually projected the improvement on TURF and has yet to have a clear chance on the grass – EX on 1/3 and even more subtle excuse with the placement running in a 4yo and up (not sure why they were in that 2/16 FG race) as well as trip Fast early/late pace and NO_PUSH.

CURLS NITE OUT being “less proven” on the turf will likely be “less fancied” over their stablemate #2 DEAL’EM AN WEEP in this spot. CURLS NITE OUT has the edge on class of the pair though that is not to say DEAL’EM AND WEEP can not rise to the occasion here coming off a B+ OptixGRADE in their most recent start, though this is a slight rise from that event and from prior starts going back to last season.

#1 BEADS has some buried early speed and could be intent to race forward here as they return to the route distance while paired with the rail and an assertive rider with W. Rodriguez taking over today.  The early speed can be tougher to see when looking “on paper” (and even Plot) given the pattern of gate issues (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and even recent sprint distances mixed. Keying off the 6/1 allowance over this turf course they had a TROUBLE_S and RUSH in addition to PRERACE- visuals suggesting they might have needed the race coming back from the 45-day rest. 

This is an extremely competitive race given every horse fits the condition, holds speed figures on par to win and in terms of pace each runner can work a trip with their runstyle. That creates a scenario for value to play, no reason to accept a shorter number and in terms of overall coverage with this race starting out the Pick 6 with the stakes races, a spread scenario can be utilized.

All three of the IL-bred runners race for the higher $20k tag suggesting some intent on that front, working inside out: #1 DASH TO THE CASH gives up recency off the layoff and overall race record has reservations though to be fair most of those races run at a higher level, and compensated with higher odds. In terms of race shape they should have pace to run at with a similar runstyle and finishing ability to rival #7 EASY FAST with DASH likely much higher of the two.

I. Hernandez jumps to DASH TO THE CASH from #4 GABE’S CHOICE, one that earned a follow with the projected IMPROVE on debut and did just that coming back the following month with the MSW score. Working just a few day before the 6/5 event paired with the effort (RUSH BOS) might have required the added recovery time, the 52-days into this race though steady works since.

#5 TAKEITAWAY also from a 45-day freshening and back to the Hawthorne main track looking for the right spot to compete. They have held their form this season (lack of Red in OptixNOTES) though have struggled to find the right trip and spot, something that has impacted the outcome in the 2025 races. 

#6 DESSERT FIRST can be upgraded back at this level and from a compromised TACTIC- trip along with the SLOG TROUBLE_S impacting their ability to compete on the day. This also marks second off and conditions back around two turns a distance that might not be their ideal, though capable with the right trip, as shown necessary from the 7/6 example.

#7 SILKY WARRIOR is necessary to get a look at in the paddock to potentially upgrade from the recent races from a PRERACE- standpoint. There were reservations from the visuals going back to 6/15 and similar when also WARM (not common for her) on 7/6.

A longshot case can be made for both #2 LUNARCHY and #3 SIGNATURE STREET off their Plot positions as well as current form from the races this season. LUNARCHY perhaps given a pass with the VSLOG hesitating out of the gate in the 7/6 common race and their June figures fit on par; SIGNATURE STREE races at a higher par in the first set of races coming back in 2025 and with a softer par as of late paired with the conditioning has shown progression on speed figures as well as OptixGRADES. 

#1 NOBALS when it comes to today’s race shape and 5.5f turf sprint conditions holds a pace advantage (Q1 Square) and the scenario where they are both the horse to catch and beat in this race. From the Standard Plot, the current form from the dirt/synth “longer” sprint races are included though that changes on Surface/Distance with both stablemate #7 UNCASHED and #3 MONDOGETSBUCKETS unproven with the shorter turf sprint.

#6 DARK VINTAGE takes a rise in class though proven on the turf sprinting as well as over this course. That could suggest intent for this race given the recent starts and in the third start back returning from the long 578-day layoff. Their 2025 season began at CD on 6/11, where they suffered a WIDE trip that upgraded them wheeling back two weeks later into the 6/26 Hawthorne win and appear to have come out of the race well working twice since and now pointed to this stakes race. Their current Plot position/shape along with softer figures (well BELOW- numbers for #4 NAGY AND DA BEARS) requires some price compensation, though to the credit of DARK VINTAGE they have back faster numbers from the turf sprints starting out their career as a juvenile that would fit on par and at the least suggest they can run faster than what they have shown this season.

#5 BAL A KAZOO has a solid late kick (Q2/4 Square) though appears to require some pace pressure up front to get up for the win, though reasonable to assess for vertical use. The benefit of Surface/Distance experience could upgrade #2 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL in this case while recognizing a significant rise in class. 

Overall there is not much between the two L. Rivelli fillies both runners moving up with the transition to MCL company and this spot a lower condition from their recent races. Both #2 MARY MOONGLOW (WIDE on the turf on 7/10) and #7 ESCOVEDO (RUSH DUEL and TROUBLE-) can be given a flow upgrade with their respective races slowing late impacting the outcome. Those two fit in this race off the change in class and consistent figures though  in that number department lack an edge over some others and should be noted in terms of projected value.

#4 RUMBLING can be given an upgrade moving off the rail for the first time this season. That draw along with the layoff and TROUBLE playing a role in the layoff return and lass when stepped up on 5/4. They returned from the two month break on 7/6 again with the rail taking KICKBACK in that show result moving outside today and rider change as well for M. Quinonez.

#8 BEST DRESSED MAN has a long show look second off and perhaps the PREP on 7/10 making a positive prerace physicality though mentally might not have been quite on their A game. That impression carried in running, with the TROUBLE_S RUSH and passively ridden late in a blanket for minors behind the open length class dropping winner, Rodavlas. 

#5 SATURDAY FLIRT ships in for connections (F. Dettori/W. Ward) that suggest intent and followed with a stateside perfect 3-for-3 record. While she has that record including the Soaring Softly (G3) win last month, today’s par and purse in similar to races this season to fit on that front though unlike last out and even going back to April at KEE the projected odds could be shorter here and will still need her A game to win.

#3 SHEZAFUNKYDRUMMER could be looking for that upset while returning in this spot off the layoff and without hesitation right back to stakes company. She brings in surface versatility as well as class going back to the stakes win at PRM (with O. Mojica aboard) making TWO_MOVES. Following that win, the connections picked the $1Million Untapable Stakes at KYD recording B OptixGRADE. The two next starts at a different surface distance with route in the Jessamine (G2) a slight flow upgrade with some excuse trying two turns and closing out 2024 on the dirt in the extended sprint Fern Creek Stakes, a strong $225k event that has since produced graded stakes winners – Echo Sound and Shisospicy.

Stablemate #2 RICH CITY GIRL also with a look in her own right. She started out with a solid juvenile sprint campaign in KY closing out the 2024 season in the Alcibiades (G1) also marking her two turn debut.  She return not only to winning ways bit showing speed figure improvement winning the Goldfinch Stakes overcoming a TROUBLE_S with a WIDE RUSH in the front running win under the lights at PRM. The connections scratched from the Pea Patch Stakes (5.5f turf) on 7/6 at ELP and staying “home” for this race instead.

Their other other L. Rivelli stablemate #1 FOXXY CLEOPATRA sits in line on speed figures, though still must prove themselves on class returning to stakes company and a lateral par noted for the B- allowance last month at CD. The lack of a class edge also follow #4 OUT TOO LATE one that projects to get attention coming off the win and for the connections and while capable, could fall into underlay territory especially with value required given the off the pace (Q4) runstyle. 

This is a tough race given the timing of runners and many making the change in class for this first-time $7.5k claiming condition, the first event of this type on the year, on the grass. Looking at the Plot, a pace advantage could hold for #4 VITALE and #7 MAASAI WARRIOR on the front end. If there is a scenario those two battle early (Surface/Distance above/near ParLine) #1 DANVILLE and stablemate #3 TEMPER TANTRUM along with #5 MALIGATOR could look for first run.

The Plot is not “ideal” for #2 DAPPER DUDE however trips, timing and placement has played a role in that position/shape and looking through their body of work there are races on the turf that fit on par and can make a value case on that front. Similar for #8 MR. UNIVERSE.. though takes a bigger leap of faith required to return to the top form/figures from 2022-21. That said, they have shown improvement with racing put in a WIDE MOVE over the turf last month after the SLOG and for today’s event picks up a rider change to a journeyman for the first time this year with S. Gonzalez taking over.

The time machine also required for #9 HONEST TO GOODNESS with races from 2021-2019 that fit, though also gives up some recency again on the year with the two month (63-day break) into this race. #8 PLAIN OR PEANUT has select races that could get the job done here though not always the most consistent running those top efforts. They have limited turf starts and less concerned about the surface switch compared to the other more crucial handicapping factors. Another layoff comes into play as they return in this spot with a rise in class; as far as timing perhaps something they needed to get sorted out noting very fractious in the GATE for the races going back to March and April during the first part of the meet. 

Interesting baby race. Decided to go with 3-BOOM BOOM BELL. She’s making her third start already and she ran into a couple monsters her first two times out. She ran well to finish second in last and was still making up ground late. Maybe her experience will help her to rule the day. Trainer Rivelli starts a pair of Carolyn Wilson homebreds. 4-TIZ CHINA seems to be working the better of the two and gets the barn’s most regular rider in the irons while the works of 5-GREAT OWL haven’t impressed but she’ll get Walter Rodriguez as the pilot and he has won with four of the five Rivelli-trained runners he has ridden this meet and 46% overall of the barn’s horses that he has ridden over the last two years. 2-CLOUDY LASS, racing for Chris Block, has been working well and steadily. You know she’ll be ready for a top-notch effort. 

2-RACARINO moves up a notch but he’s been in good form for quite a while. He finished worse than second only one time in his last seven starts, dating back to last year, and he’s already had a couple good races at this level this year. 3-BREAKING NEWS was simply overmatched in last. He lost ground throughout and didn’t beat a rival. But he had been in good form against runners like these prior to that last race. Should wake back up not that he’s back at the right level. 6-MON AMIE FUZZIE drops and turns back in distance. He hadn’t been in the best of form but he never had a lot of success in two-turn races but the overwhelming majority of his success came at this distance. 

Unfortunately, we’re off the turf today because of enormous (3+inches) amount of rain over the last couple days so we’ll have to regroup and try to figure which runners in the turf-scheduled races, won’t scratch. 4-CURL'S NITE OUT was less than impressive in her two turf races so you have to figure her savvy connections saw the long-range weather forecast and thought there was a strong possibility that this race would be moved to the main track. There are no “unbeatable” horses in racing but she seems pretty close in this spot. 7-ROYAL LAUGHTER looks like the main competition. She showed little in her three turf races and had only meager success on fast dirt tracks but she did win two of her three off-track races, which could be a factor if it keeps raining. 8-LITTLE DIXIE comes off her best race of the year. She’s entered for main-track only which would seem to suggest that she will be running. She was at her best in 2023 but last race could indicate that she’s rounding back into form. 

4-GABE'S CHOICE just graduated and he did it against Illinois breds. However, he could be the best of the speed, depending on what the runners coming off long layoffs are capable of showing, as well as the likely favorite, Takeitaway. 5-TAKEITAWAY doesn’t seem quite as quick as top choice but he’s had far more races and he is generally right in the thick of things from start to finish. 3-CINCO HARLEY was favored and ran well in his debut at Gulfstream. However, that race took place over two years ago and he had only one race since, also two years ago. Races for different connections in his local debut but he is coming back and returning at the right level while getting Lasix for the first time. 

Not in love with 7-SILKY WARRIOR but she did finish second in two of last three while meeting rivals similar to these. 6-DESSERT FIRST was favored in last but she hopped at the start of the race and never really recovered. Don’t like that she’s still eligible for a non-winners of three but her speed figures suggest that she’s faster than the rest of the field. 5-RUNNER'S HEAT drops and stretches out. She’s likely to be on or near the lead from the start. However, she doesn’t seem to possess a lot of staying power when trying to navigate two turns. Wouldn’t totally count her out but thinking she might not last on the lead.

This race lost some of its allure when it came off the turf but it should still be an exciting event. 1-NOBALS is the unknown. It’s not often that we get a Breeders’ Cup winner racing here and not even sure we will today. Nobals has never raced on dirt. But he is the class. We’ll see if he stays in. The other Rivelli-trained runner, 7-UNCASHED, will be tough in any case. He’s blessed with great early speed. He scored in nine of his 17 dirt races, including two of three on off tracks. 3-MONDOGETSBUCKETS takes on his best field yet but he is riding a three-race in streak after narrowly losing his first race for this barn.  

Trainer Larry Rivelli has a pair of fillies entered to take on the boys. At this level that might not matter.  2-MARY MOONGLOW raced competitively in all her starts and all were against far better rivals. You always have to wonder about the big drops in class but that often happens with this barn. The other Rivelli-trained runner, 7-ESCOVEDO, takes a similar drop. This filly, a $250k buy at auction while her stablemate brought $190k, is another that has raced well against better rivals and will likely be popular at the claiming box. She’s scheduled to be ridden by the legendary Lanfranco (Frankie) Dettori but he might not come if his mount is scratched from the stakes. 4-RUMBLING finished third the two times he met runners at similar levels. Can’t be ignored. The speedy 3-BOURBON STREET BOY generally tires late but the cutback to five and a half furlongs could enhance his chances.  

This race became far more competitive after the scratches.  this race is filled with speed but 9-GRAY LIGHTNING of them all. She was totally overmatched in a Grade 2 at Churchill in last but she looks like the quickest of these and the cut back to five and a half furlongs should definitely enhance her chances. 2-RICH CITY GIRL is only three and will be meeting older but she has been impressive in her brief career. Fresh off a stakes win at Prairie Meadows, this fleet filly can make it two in a row. 10-BEEHIVE should love the pace set up. She could turn out to be the best closer in this speed-filled race. Plus, she gets the home-field advantage. 8-SHARP HERO and 11-YAMILE’S are both capable of coming n late, 

This race was also scheduled for the lawn. 1-DANVILLE is the most obvious on dirt but he hasn’t been in great form for a while. He looks like he should win this but there’s no guarantee. 2-DAPPER DUDE was winless for over two years but he finally broke that streak in last. Would be too surprised if he was a repeat winner today. Like Danville, 5-MALIGATOR has been at his best on dirt and like the aforementioned rival, he hasn’t been in the best of form. But that just might change against a small and weak field.  

T 5 Shs Miss My Mama 7 My Man Mahomes 8 Sv Captain Ridge

P 7 Somepeopleneedtold 6 Incredible Badger 4 Rocklikeahurricane

T 5 Impressive Landing 1 Chicorra 6 Wind Witch

P 5 Shelly Speaking 7 Jk Whiskey 4 Gumption Hanover

T 9 Baby Flash 7 Jack Rabbit Slims 1 Sb Eye Candy

P 7 Jeremys Alibi 5 Better Style 1 Atlantis

P 9 Daniel’s Son 8 Hankscoltfortyfive 2 Sullenberger

T 3 Iron Sharpens Iron 1 Talismano 5 Dylan The Great

P 6 He’zzz A Wise Sky 5 Speaking Volumes 4 Dale Yeah

T 2 International Ice 8 Peanutbutterfalcon 5 Braggen Bliss

T 7 Bp’s Lucky Star 8 Escaper 9 All Champy

P 8 Marc In The Box 5 Whereicomefrom 7 A Major Omen