Handicapper Tips & Picks

The race shape should be honest early with the higher 72 SpeedRate despite the Snowflake Contention. That is in part to the two A. Hernandez runners with #7 BETWITHBOTHHANDS stretching back out returning with the change in class and the outside draw should be forwardly placed given all those factors in play; #4 POLTERER is not a “need the lead” though one that does their better running close to the pace – they are giving up recency though capable given class and Plot position/shape.

The other Square #6 ROTARY DIAL fits today’s race shape and has run well under similar dynamic in the past. That should be key to rebound and capable of doing so given the recent trip from 7/10, where intent lacking in preference of stablemate and not asked for their best on the day.

#5 RICKY BOBBY also should take to today’s conditions and dynamic. They bring in current form third start back from the layoff, a competitive race on return in for the $12.5 tag on 6/22 and intent to run at Hawthorne noting they were entered and scratched twice last season both races at the OC$50k level and with today’s rider, I. Hernandez named. 

Looking at the Past 3 Runlines there are only two runners in the field that lack the Bold Red Keywords in OptixNOTES and that will be used as the separator in this competitive group.

#3 HEAVENLY HASH should hold value while bringing in buried form and some subtle changes for this race such as distance back to 6f. They pick up a rider change following a TACTIC- two weeks ago and upgraded chasing a Slow early and late pace (Sun/17 SpeedRate, lower than today) and made a late MOVE and GALLOP+.

#5 RUNNERS HEAT returns with some class relief from the two most recent starts paired with TROUBLE_S in both and WIDE in the recent 6/26 start. She was competitive with the two show finishes under similar conditions earlier this seasons and showing early speed in both, a runstyle she has in her though not a need the lead and arguably could prefer a tracking trip – one when looking at the Plot they could fall into. 

Another approaching round of rain could move this event to the main track and assist those MTO runners. #8 PAT’S PROPERTY holds tactical speed and appears to have intent not only as MTO but also form over this course including two wins (1 each in 2023 and 2024) under similar OC conditions and par. Their other Hawthorne start was also credible given the timing and placement in the 2022 Work All Week stakes.

#9 EMPIRE BUILDER takes the rise in class after a dominant B+ front end effort and recorded a big number in the $25k claiming race last month. It is reasonable off that to take the rise in class and given the 56-days recovery as well. Stablemate #6 PROTONIC POWER is not entered MTO though extremely versatile and another with form over this course and allowance condition. They should benefit from the return race earlier this month, a race they were giving up 389-days of recency and find a change in draw as well moving off the inside. 

#1 CAMP DADDY takes the rise back up in class for this second start off the layoff and could be some positive signs with that change as well as a return to the extended sprint distance. They have natural early speed though perhaps not quite “sprint speed” and tactically could see that change here especially with today’s race shape and when looking at Surface/Distance. CAMP DADDY shifts from their Standard (current form) Q1 Square (also favorable) to the Q2 Square. That tracking trip could be favorable in this case with the presence of the other Q1/3 rivals including Circles #3 ELI’S PROMISE and #4 INDYVILLE and should be joined with the outside two #5 BILL’S HONOR and #6 CLYDE’S GREEN GO shipping in from FP.

That noted Contentious (Fire) and honest (50 SpeedRate) early pace is noted for #2 CORTESE with the Large Q4 Square (Strong late kick from well off the pace) as they wheel back from the win just 11-days ago and also taking the rise up the class ladder. 

As eluded to earlier on the card this race could change significantly with a move to the main track. With that said, many in this field have run on the main track and hold surface versatility to compete, especially when placed at the right level for their abilities.

#5 BABE IN THE WOODS being one of those finding the belated STRETCH out in distance from the recent series of sprints and holds solid form over the Hawthorne turf. The main track route form is perhaps “less obvious” given the finishing positions. That includes the two route races starting off the year at OP both at a higher par and WIDE trip off the bench with the outside post in January and slight flow upgrade coming back on 2/3 when the rider dropped the whip in the stretch.

#10 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN also brings in buried competitive dirt form and recent form with some changes here from the two July starts. She took hold males on 7/6 while fractious in the GATE and given no favors with the outside draw, pushing an honest pace (FTQ) a tougher trip all around on this course. They wheeled right back and a different GATE issue as she was unprepared at the break forced to make a WIDE RUSH before losing ground and overall seemed to require more time between starts. She could also require a rider change and A. Santos landed the pick up mount and place finish aboard in that 6/12 start.

The lone MTO #13 BALLYBAY BEAUTY could be looking for that change and similar racing luck picking up the MCL win last out entered and winning as the lone MTO in the field that day.

Unlike a lot of the dirt races earlier on the card with the higher SpeedRate, that changes here with the Lower rating. The contention is still a Sun with three of the seven sharing the EP RunStyle and four to the left of the y-axis. That lower SpeedRate is represented visually on the Plot as well with the entire field below the ParLine. That scenario can move up the Squares of #4 WE MISS ARLINGTON and #6 SUPREMELY and outside with #7 LUCKY SHOT looking to rate off that pair with first run.

There is a scenario where the SpeedRate is a touch higher noting #1 RUSSIAN TO WIN can show early speed keying off their 2025 OP races going back to 1/19 when they won on the lead as the BOS while WIDE and also took part in a WIDE DUEL on 4/6. They were unable to make the lead on 6/29 with the SLOG and SAVED TROUBLE from the rail chasing a Slow early and Very Slow late pace. They pick up a rider change to O. Mojica, a rider that has been aboard in the past including a win in 2024 to suggest intent all around.

Some price compensation is required with #5 DOUBLE THUNDER given the projected dynamic and trip (Q4 Square) from off the pace though is not out of it. They bring in current form, second of the cycle, with competitive races this season and in the past under a similar par/level. 

#3 CHAOS REIGNS can be upgraded in today’s race shape (Q1) and from the 7/3 start race X_FLOW part of the Very Fast early (and Fast late) pace, playing a role in the Plot shape today. They were also giving up recency into the 7/3 start coming off a 46-day freshening and should hold fitness second-off here. Depending on the tactical decision from J. Loveberry aboard #6 STRONGER TOGETHER, there could be a scenario with CHAOS REIGNS lone on the lead.

From the opposite end, #4 WHAT A COUNTRY (Q4 Circle) brings some upside second off and returning from the 282-day layoff for the 6/21 FP race. The timing paired with the in-running visuals could suggest “prep” as they were WARM and rider TACTIC- took hold dropping back and WIDE from off the pace making a late MOVE all around did not appear asked for their best on the day. They require their best to win and while not also consistent with the effort needed to get the job done here, they have those races in them.

While #1 EYE DEE KAY earned a lot of respect for their B OptixGRADE and figure in the place effort earlier this month, they were on an “every other” pattern cycling to a top that day. That could see some regression, something to consider on value – value that could shift to stablemate #5 SOUL COAXING one that also following an “every other” pattern with this timing their upswing here.

The Plot position and shape for SOUL COAXING especially on Standard is favorable and all around in line with their stablemate EYE DEE KAY as well as #7 CALIBRATE and #2 C F V BULLET, runners that could land public support returning here off wins. 

If projected favorite #4 SHADY MCGEE is to be beat it could be on the front end while on value there is reason to move up #5 GLOBAL EMPIRE given the projected longer odds of the two and similar Plot position and shape.

In terms of the early lead. #7 CONI’S COUP did not try for the lead on 7/17 not only took them out of their race (TACTIC- NO_PUSH) but also perhaps assisted the top two (Little Steven and General Issue) both racing forwardly placed taking out some of their main pace contention. Some intent could be in play with CONI’S COUP more assertively handled today while also coming back on a quicker 17-day turnaround and with the class drop.

Intent could also follow #6 TRY TRY AGAIN a horse that appeared to be racing into form coming off the layoff and with the front wrap removal. They stepped forward under these conditions last month and could hold intent and another step forward today. A rider change is made with A. Gonzalez picking up a pair of mounts for trainer F. Alonso (RACE 5: Misty Sunday) and an overall accomplished rider shifting to IL for 2025 and while looking for their first win of the year they have been ITM with limited FP starts and knocking on the door. 

#3 STASHU has surface versatility while showing up for their first start on this circuit and looking to find the right placement for their abilities while still remaining protected for their connections. That has been the biggest hurdle for them throughout these first two seasons and especially coming back this year as a sophomore. Each of the three starts in KY landed a higher race par than today’s even and should move up naturally with that key change.

#5 BALADINE returns with the slight freshening (35-days) and a rider change while brining in consistent and competitive form this season. They took a tough beat off the layoff on 4/10 recorded a B OptixGRADE though that big effort and seasonal top figures could have played a role in the slight number regression that followed running back on the shorter rest (and often higher par) playing a role in outcome as well.

J. Felix had been aboard BALADINE in the recent starts and shifts to the stablemate of STASHU in #7 HOBBS for trainer J. Wainwright. HOBBS had a big look showing up in the 7/13 race with the STRETCH out in distance and given an EX with the trip on the day. While they present upside coming back from the EX they have the distance change and back to the shorter 5.5f in play. 

Good combination of speed and closers to kick off the card. 6-ROTARY DIAL finds things a bit easier here as he comes out of starter races into this spot. Centeno picks up the mount as this one moves up more if the track comes up wet. 3-HANDSOFFTHEGOODS has finished third in his last couple. He will benefit from pace ahead of him as he should rally late. 5-RICKY BOBBY was a good second two back and closed some late in his last. The barn has been solid this year as the price could be right.

With the possible pace battle upfront, look to 1-GO STORMIN GIRL to rate early and rally in the lane. She was a solid claim two back and has been excellent on this surface. 4-LOST SUNSET is one of two with speed but she could potentially be the fastest to the front. She just missed in her last as she looks to have rounded back into form. 6-HONOR HIS HALF is the other with speed but she may be best suited sitting back just off the pace and stalking in here. She was also claimed from her last as we will see how she runs for the new barn today.

Don't know if this will be on turf or dirt at time of writing. If on dirt, it's tough to look past 9-EMPIRE BUILDER off his last race. He has speed, could go unchallenged early, and kick away late. On turf, 3-ANOTHER MYSTERY is the one to beat. He is approaching $1 million in career earning and is as honest as they come. 5-EYE WITNESS looks to be competitive on turf or dirt. He stretches out for today's race as he ships in to run.

A solid field of sprinters here. Off his last two, 3-ELI'S PROMISE should be right there once again. He has tactical speed and should find a couple to chase. 4-INDYVILLE ran a huge race in his last as he stalked the early pace and rallied in the lane. He has found the board in all five career starts and should take some action in here. 6-CLYDE'S GREEN GO has been in fine form this year. The Illinois-bred runs open once again with the potential to earn bonus money if he finishes in the top three.

Another spot where everything depends on turf or dirt. If on dirt you have to look to 13-BALLYBAY BEAUTY as she would draw in off a nice main track score in her last. She has tactical speed and will just need to clear from the outside. 2-TWO TIMER will be tough on turf or dirt as she has been in better form this year. She has tactical speed and should provide some value. 1-NIGHT BLUE is another that could fare well on either surface. She does stretch back out off recent starts but should have no issue with the distance in here.

Hard to knock the recent form of 6-SUPREMELY as he has been solid in his last six starts. He finds a spot where he can race protected as he should rate close the entire way. 4-WE MISS ARLINGTON has speed as he gets back to his best surface. The distance suits as he may look to scamper away early and never look back. 7-LUCKY SHOT is another with tactical speed. He has also been sharp all meet but just runs into a tough one in We Miss Arlington.

It was a game victory last out for 7-CALIBRATE as he has been sharp in both starts this meet. He likes this distance, likes the track and will just need some pace to chase. 2-C F V BULLET has tactical speed as he steps up in his second start of the year. He raced protected in his last and responded well as he stalked a slow pace and took over late. Expect a similar trip today. 1-EYE DEE KAY just missed while finishing behind Calibrate last out. He makes his second start off the layoff and will be hoping for another quick pace to chase.

Every once in a while we see that big effort out of 6-TRY TRY AGAIN. I like that he stays at two turns today and also finds a spot where there isn't much pace. Let's see if he can pull off the upset in here. 4-SHADY MCGEE (IRE) was a good second in his last and races in the same spot once again. He stays on the dirt and will take a good amount of action. 7-CONI'S COUP should be the pace in this race. He has been facing much tougher and now gets the class relief. Off his last few races he could provide some value but he has more than enough talent to win in this spot.

Will be curious to see how 9-VINEGAR HILL handles the shift to turf as he has been sharp in his two dirt starts this year. He has speed and may be able to clear and never look back. 6-RODAVLAS looked like a different racehorse in his last. That start did come against easier but he was able to win with ease despite the awkward start. 1-SAWYER FOX has come off the layoff and been very sharp in his two starts this meet. He also has speed as he races for the Illinois-bred bonus in here.

Have qualms about selecting 4-POLTERER. He pulled up in his last start and he’s being dropped to a level less than the level from which he was claimed. He also had only a couple drills since that February race. But this savvy trainer is having a great meet, he’s utilizing his most often used rider, even though the other horse he entered in this race is the morning-line favorite, and he sports a 38%-win rate with his first-time claims. 7-BETWITHBOTHHANDS, the stablemate of top choice, would be a huge favorite if this race was on turf but he’s had limited experience on dirt and that experience hasn’t been too successful. Still, he has some class and this could be the easiest field he ever faced. 6-ROTARY DIAL improved greatly since getting claimed by this barn, if you toss out his two turf attempts. He displayed good speed and stamina in his two dirt starts for this barn and he was in against starter allowance company in both those races. There are obvious questions about my top two selections but pretty sure this gelding will be right there at the finish.  

4-LOST SUNSET seems most likely. She led most of the way in last and held on for second, while meeting many of these same rivals. Might take it all the way today. 1-GO STORMIN GIRL could wind up vying for the front end though she doesn’t necessarily need the early lead. She went off as the odds-on favorite in her last race but ran out of gas late and finished about four lengths behind top choice. But she’s certainly capable of turning the tables in this one. 3-HEAVENLY HASH might be the only one capable of coming on late in this speed-filled race.  

With the probable scratches, this race looks like a contest between main-track only speedsters 9-EMPIRE BUILDER, 8-PATS PROPERTY and closer 6-PROTONIC POWER, though not sure what other runners will stay in to race on the main track. Going to give a slight edge to Empire Builder since he just crushed a bit easier field. Pats Property hasn’t raced in three months and his drills during that time have been sparse. Protonic Power was entered for turf but he’s been far better on the main track. He raced in fifth throughout in his last start but that was his first race in over a year and it was contested on turf. There’s a good chance that Empire Builder (his uncoupled stablemate) and Pats Property will lock up in a speed duel and enhancing his chances, 

Very nice race with an equal assortment of speed runners and closers and a couple versatile enough to handle any pace. I’m leaning toward 3-ELI'S PROMISE. He’s one of the versatile runners. He’s quick enough to race right on a torrid pace but still able to finish with authority. 4-INDYVILLE ran well in all his starts but seemed to kick it into another gear in last when making his first local start of the year. Usual speed runner was taken off the pace for last but made a big late move to capture victory, beating top pick in the process. Might be able to do it again. 6-CLYDE'S GREEN GO is another with the versatility to handle any pace. He’s been racing at Fairmount lately, but he’s had plenty of local success, including a win in his first start of 2025.  

No idea who will scratch from this race but certainly expect 13-BALLYBAY BEAUTY to stay in since she was entered for the main track. She crushed $20k maiden claimers on dirt in her last start. Few of her rivals in this race have ever shown anything on dirt. 11-SHARP ATTACK was enter for turf but she had never raced on that surface so expect her to stay in the race. She’s stretching out today and could be the quickest from the gate. She tired badly in her only previous two-turn race but she’s older now and in a different barn. Might not get caught. 9-SAFECRACKER SUE was entered for turf but her lone win came here on dirt two races back. Many of her previous races have been around two turns so would expect her to be able to stay competitive throughout. 

Wide open race. 7-LUCKY SHOT might have the edge. He’s been in good competitive form all year while racing here, at Keeneland and in Tampa. He has competitive speed but still finishes well. Slim pick. 6-SUPREMELY has been in great form since getting claimed by this barn. He won three of his six races for them, including an allowance victory at Fairmount in his last start. 4-WE MISS ARLINGTON is hard to gauge. He is coming off a dull effort downstate but he won four of his prior five races. However, in his good races he was ridden by Mitch Murrill and that rider is no longer available here. 

3-CHAOS REIGNS could bounce back. He tired badly in his last start but he wound up fighting for the lead through blistering early fractions. Doubt if he’ll be pushed so hard early in this one. 7-CALIBRATE took advantage of the aforementioned blistering fractions and flew late to capture last. That was also the easiest field this graded-stakes-placed runner ever met. He isn’t likely to get that kind of pace again today but he could do it on class alone. 1-EYE DEE KAY, coming out of the same race as the top pair, just missed. He moved right behind Calibrate and fought hard with that rival down the stretch but just could get past. Maybe today. 

7-CONI'S COUP S is in terrible form but he’s dropping many levels for this race. He’s never going to be far off the pace and might be capable of leading throughout at this level. 4-SHADY MCGEE certainly figures. In his 51 races he had only three on dirt and his last, a second-place finish, was his first ever on a fast dirt track. Can improve from the experience. 2-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE, like top pick, was primarily a turf runner for most of his career but he has also had some success on dirt. Good tactical speed should keep him in the hunt throughout.  

1-SAWYER FOX’s last three races were on turf but he was a nine-length maiden winner the last time he ran on dirt. No guarantee he’ll stay in the race and he is likely to face plenty of early company if he does but do think he’s capable of putting the rest of them away. 9-VINEGAR HILL is the main speed threat. He displayed very good speed in his two races at Fairmount this year, winning last, after he wired the field to break his maiden at Churchill last year. It could be an interesting contest on the front end if both runners stay in. 5-BALADINE also has some speed but think he is more likely to be tracking the pace, hoping to pick off tiring front runners.