« 07/31/2025 08/02/2025 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri August 1st, 2025

Download as PDF

Emily's Analysis

Del Mar Race 1

Post Time 6:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 TIME TO SHINE has some hurdles stepping up to take on winners, a bigger test than the return to turf. Class in the MSW turf events played a greater role (along with "trips") in the outcome than the surface alone. Those MSW efforts fit on par here to stick along and even could win though does require price compensation. 

Del Mar Race 2

Post Time 6:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Would not be against any of the FTS in this spot based on the horses that have run to show up as a new face. Of the horses with experience: trainer P. Miller has been sending out live runners to start the DMR meet and that could carry with #10 REBEL NATION for their second start. The debut at LRC appeared a PREP and with this meet right around the corner along with a subtle change in class, intent could follow. 

Del Mar Race 4

Post Time 7:33 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 SHARED FUTURE fits this race as well as any and could hold value given their connections. They return from a 98-day freshening and from a BTL closing 4th while wheeling back in a week to the sprint distance on 4/25. Their numbers at the similar N1 allowance and route efforts from earlier this season fit on par and in terms of runstyle moves up to Q2 and should have pace to chase - pace that could also benefit long layoff returnee #8 CATALINA COCKTAIL (Q4) trip and value required. That pace likely includes #1 HOWIN one that has not handled KICKBACK in the past and from the rail could be forced to again use their early speed. While their class could hold as the "bos" they could have pace pressure #3 MADAME SECRETARY and #6 EPIONE and even #2 LOLO LE PLUME and #5 SUGAR HI also have tactical speed. 

Del Mar Race 5

Post Time 8:04 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 VRONSKY FEINT showed up just 6-days ago from a 78-day layoff and might have needed the race and if nothing else the class DROP. They have competitive races at this level going back to last summer including an EX _EXCUSE back on 7/26. 

Woodbine Race 1

Post Time 12:05 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
When it comes to Class, Speed and current Form #1 BREAK THE SPELL checks the boxes. As far as the route distance this will be just their second time racing at the two turns though the lone two-turn race to date was back in the Grey (G3) in their juvenile season when breaking SLOG chasing WIDE NO_PUSH and tough to hold the distance alone against them all things considered. With the current form, the 5/4 return projected to STRETCH and has that here with what should be price compensation given that unknown paired with recent outcomes.