Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 BIG D will get another look after making a positive PRERACE+ appearance in the paddock when initially entered on 7/20. They also had wagering support though restless in the GATE was late scratch, forced to wait for another day. That entry just a few weeks ago so appears no worse for the wear publishing a work on 7/30 and retaining L. Colon, the rider assigned last time around while moving to the turf today.

Their stablemate #3 THIS BEAU KNOWS brings in steady works and live rider assignment with O. Mojica aboard and will get a chance with this race early on the card to assess physical readiness.

In terms of the L. Rivelli pair: #6 BIAGODDESS has a start with that experience noted and will race as the lone filly in the field and outside of the other runner with experience #7 INSTASTAR the other runners in this field are all geldings. #1 ELMORE brings in a longer steady work tab and should be as race ready as they ever will be. In terms of 2yo FTS debuting on the turf at Hawthorne*, this is not a common spot for them to show up – since 2020 there has only been 6 starters with 1 finishing show as the best result in that sample. *there has been other runners out of town in this category with success, 2 wins in the fall FG 2024 season horses that could also run on Lasix.

#5 GOGH could be ready to go first out with some solid works though a slight gap in the published series from 6/22 to 7/13 and even two weeks from the two most recent half mile moves. #4 THIEVER despite being an IN-bred debuts here and brings in a steady series some “bullet” moves in the 3f drills. 

The class drop should allow for the two projected favorites #4 MARY MOONGLOW and #6 SAVVY SMILA the right spot to compete. Of the two there they are quite similar and tough to split though perhaps giving SAVVY SMILA the edge as not only should she be longer odds of the two but recorded a B OptixGRADE back on 6/5 and a B- with the trip on 6/29 intimidated/SCARED with rail run in the lane.

The change in class also followed #3 ILLY SIMZ into the 7/13 return and also given a look in here once again. Number wise she will be tested to improve though this (like last out) should be the time and place. Showing some run in spots during the three OP starts she was upgraded on 7/13 though in the paddock was quiet/PRERACE- and in running had a legitimate EX – EXCUSE on the trip. From the rail she had significant TROUBLES+ with a stumble and contact and tougher to see on the running line made a solid middle MOVE X_FLOW.

#2 LIL CARRIE D overall fits with this group as she makes her second start off the layoff and a credible effort in the 7/13 return. While capable and with some of her more competitive races in the past at the route/two-turn distance prefer some other runners on top. 

This is a good race to find value as #3 ZOOMBIE (against) projects to be favored and get a lot of attention for the connections, prior placement while also coming into this race off a win in their most recent start. While capable they should be an underlay with those noted factors in play (things the public will overvalue) especially the win on 7/14 given the right ride to win and also benefit from the 1-2 chalk Spoke getting stuck behind horses and might have been a different outcome with that runner finding a clear trip.

There are not only alternatives to the favorite but also contenders: #1 DINOS DIXIE should present a pace advantage in this group with the rail draw, slight change in distance back to 5f and given a BOS X_FLOW upgrade from the 7/6 race. Racing X_FLOW and NO_COVER played a role in their finish and outcome and similar going back to the 5/11 return making a RUSH into a Fast early (and late) pace; those efforts impacting their Plot shape today as a Circle while also holding as the lone runner in the field above the ParLine. #2 GRAND HIDEAWAY brings in current form second off, form over this course and distance. A lot of their success has been with today’s rider L. Colon aboard (4 starts together with 3 wins) and a key live rider change. 

Trainer J. Campbell has a solid 1-2 punch in this race with the pair: #1 RACING THE LIGHT brings in early speed and upgrade from the 7/4 ELP start when racing as the lone 3o against older and a higher race par than what they return to today at Hawthorne; #5 SHE STOPPED SHORT brings in a complementary runstyle to stalk and pounce. She also brings in upside as an individual with the freshening for this second start against wines and a change in class as well.

#4 JOYZELLA is a legitimate longshot to win though one to use underneath following the upswing of an “every other” pattern and returning to face F&M a change from the route on 7/24, a race that was also impacted with a WEATHER DELAY and her WIDE trip with NO_PUSH also factors to further strike a line through. 

In terms of speed figures, the recent numbers are the same for the bookends of this field while giving the edge to #1 GUNNY SACK with their higher figures on the turf compared to #7 FRONTIER MARSHALL on the dirt especially if the former does hold longer odds of the two.

GUNNY SACK finds a lateral change in class if not a softer spot after catching a higher par in against open $15k MCL company last month recording a B- OptixGRADE in the process. FRONTIER MARKET returns with a slight35-day freshening and overall has been consistent this season both on speed figures and B- OptixGRADES. They finds a subtle change outside of the surface switch in terms of post position and rider following the TACTIC- in the 6/29 recent start.

Over the past 5 years trainer S. Becker (#3 YORKTON WHEAT) has had a smaller sample of FTS at Hawthorne and in those 12 starters without a win. There were three to hit the board with all three taking wagering support (<3-1) and something to follow along with prerace visuals. 

Starting the analysis with pace/Plot and the majority runners returning from the 7/17 common race. Looking at the Plot there is a scenario with #5 SECESSION with a pace advantage and in position to take this field gate-to-wire. Today’s race shape is a slightly different dynamic with the Fire (7/17) compared to the Sun today both events with the same SpeedRate.

The other two runners in Q1 with #6 VIA DEL CORSO (no value/vulnerable on 7/17) could show early speed today as that is often the intent though unreliable to do so with the pattern of GATE issues that has been present since the debut. #3 LARRY THE POET had a live look and ran to it (B OptixGRADE) making a WIDE RUSH tracked by the eventual winner, Verrazanointhesky those two together in a photo.

#1 CANYON SHADOWS is the wild card not only with a chance to return to competitive ways but also in terms of tactics. They had to RUSH returning from the layoff from the rail on 7/6 and was WARM again with a RUSH on 7/17 though outside and behind horses taking KICKBACK- something that impacted their race on the day and should be something they try to avoid here. While not the most efficient out of the gate, they bring in tactical speed, their maiden win was from the rail winning on the lead and with that tactic today could apply pace pressure to SECESSION, something that is not displayed on the Plot. #7 RED MOSCATO was compromised at the break with their head turned (TROUBLES+) and some subtle excuse on that front though finished off well making a WIDE CLOSE though is  another that could return to a prior runstyle and show early speed.

#2 SHARP STICK is the new face taking a different path into this race and could be overlooked given the recent running lines and finishing positions. Those factors gave them a potential value look on 7/20 however things changed with the surface switch and scratches as well as the trip as they had a TROUBLE_S losing their footing out of the gate and from there in running TROUBLE while showing making a MOVE behind the pacesetting winner with the top three together  at the wire. 

#6 DAPPER DUDE can be given a look in here and should hold value despite coming off  a dominant B+ win last out (7/8) at FP. Looking at the Plot, the position and shape is not “ideal” however trips, timing and class placement has played a role in how they show up today and returning to a top effort they are right in the mix to compete.

#7 MAASAI WARRIOR has been patiently waiting for a return to the turf and moves up in this group with that change looking at Surface/Distance a strong Square with tracking/tactical speed to fit today’s race shape. That carries to Standard (current form) to rate close to the pacesetters in here as #1 VITALE wheels right back and should be on send mode once again from the rail and expect #3 BAKENAKO to return to front running ways where they have been more effective. Establishing position will be key as #9 HUMBLE WARRIOR from the outside will be looking to make the lead from out of the gate into the first turn.

Even with a contentious (Sun) early pace trip will be crucial for #5 TEMPER TANTRUM (Q4 Square) returning  with a subtle change in class for this second start of the cycle making a WIDE CLOSE in the 6/29 starter allowance. 

Tough to knock either of the M. Boyce runners coming back from the BLANKET finish with the top four together at the wire with both #6 BUTTONS AND LACE and #7 RIETTA recording B- OptixGRADE. The race shape Fast early/late could give RIETTA the upgrade making a RUSH into the POCKET while BUTTONS AND LACE shifted out wide to make her late MOVE. Tactically, trips will be key for both and with the subtle change in distance to 7.5f and a quick run into the first turn.

#4 SUPRISE ME AGAIN was also part of the BLANKET finish chasing behind the pacesetters and eventual winner, My Buddy Brooks. SUPRISE ME AGAIN was WARM on the day though not out of character for her though did have the additional hurdle with the rise in class back to allowance company stepping up off the B+ $25k conditional claiming win in June.

Looking at the Standard Plot, if the reasoned case can be made for SUPRISE ME AGAIN a value case can be made for #8 SECRET OPERATION with a similar position. SECRET OPERATION does not hold many efforts on the turf around two turns (or two turns all together) so it is positive in this case to show up as Surface/Distance Square. Her recent form and figures along with class also fits while returning from a less than ideal “trip” on 6/26 as shown with the OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines while also noting the STRETCH Projection.  

#5 KNIGHTOFCARAVAGGIO still lightly raced needed the class DROP they found last month at BTP and assisted with the win landing in the right spot for their abilities. This placement is a slight rise though with similar intent shipping in looking for the right level where she can compete while still racing protected. 

Kick off a big turf day with babies on the grass. 2-BIG D looked incredible on track in preparation for his dirt debut before scratching after some gate trouble. He comes in off a sharp work and should be very tough in here. 6-BIAGODDESS ran well first out as she overcame a stumble at the start to contend much of the way. She faces the boys but can't be overlooked in here. 4-THIEVER debuts for Hernandez as he has a nice pattern of drills leading into this race. He faces some tough company here but should provide some value.

It's a big class drop but 4-MARY MOONGLOW looks for a win as she should be very tough in here. She should show speed early and may never look back. 2-LIL CARRIE D is overdue for her maiden score but ran well in her first start back of the year. She will hope for some pace to chase as she figures to run on in the lane. 6-SAVVY SMILA potentially can press the pace as she also takes the class drop today. She comes in off a brief break but the presence of Mary Moonglow in here makes her a possible value.

Lots of pace in this race should help those who run on late. 3-ZOOMBIE has been good in a pair of turf sprints, rallying for a win in his last. This is an easier field compared to what he faced last out. 2-GRAND HIDEAWAY has had a lot of turf success. He closed well in his last and figures to once again. 7-GABAGOOL was a massive price last out and was able to split the field in a tough race. He'll still provide some value as he makes his second straight turf start.

A great spot for 3-SAFECRACKER SUE as she scratched from an off-turf race on Thursday for this spot. She has tactical speed and could get a perfect stalking trip. 6-SHARP ATTACK was an easy winner in her maiden score last out. She should be forwardly placed once again but doesn't need the lead to win. 2-RUMBRANDT has taken a ton of action in her last three. She had no excuse two back and a poor start hurt her in her last. Let's see if she can get a clean trip today.

Off his last on the dirt, 1-GUNNY SACK should be forwardly placed early and contend the entire way. He returns to face state-breds and should benefit from the turf. 6-JAKES CHANNEL ran a much improved race in his last. There wasn't much early pace in there but he showed speed and hung around into the lane. Let's see if he improves in his second start of the year. 7-FRONTIER MARSHAL has some tactical speed as he will take a good amount of action. He's been on the dirt in recent starts but should have no issue shifting to the turf.

An evenly matched bunch here. Off his last, 3-LARRY THE POET should be right there once again. There's not a ton of pace in this spot but if he can rate within a couple lengths of the early lead, he should be able to battle late. 5-SECESSION is the pace of the race. He cleared in his last and maybe went a bit too fast early. If he can clear and back things down in here, he could potentially hang around to the wire. 7-RED MOSCATO needs pace to chase as he figures to sit back early and run on in the lane. He had a poor start in his last as a better break should put him closer early.

3-BAKENEKO is just an honest racehorse. He has tactical speed and always seems to be in contention at the top of the lane. This is the lowest level he has raced at in some time as he could still provide some value. 9-HUMBLE WARRIOR comes in from Indiana as he also gets some class relief. He has tactical speed also and should be right with Bakeneko much of the way. 5-TEMPER TANTRUM should be running on late but will need some pace to close into. He has had his share of turf success and won the last time Rodriguez was aboard.

Boyce runners could go 1-2 in here. 6-BUTTONS AND LACE is lightly raced and could provide more value. She closed with a rush in her last and finds a spot where the pace should be honest ahead of her. 7-RIETTA has enough speed to contend early. She battled the entire way in her last and just missed. I expect she takes a good amount of action here as well. 5-KNIGHTOFCARAVAGGIO comes in from Kentucky for this spot. Her best races have been on the grass and she posted a big figure in her last. Look for her to sit mid-pack early and run on in the lane.

If memory serves me correctly, 2-BIG D was being pretty well played a couple weeks ago but was a late scratch. He popped a bullet drill since that almost-race. Liked him on that day. Like his again today. 6-BIAGODDESS is a filly meeting the boys but she ran well in her lone start and the filly that finished second to her third, came right back to wire her next field. Experience is almost always a plus. 3-THIS BEAU KNOWS has been training well for his debut and had been working in company with top pick prior to that runner’s almost start. 1-ELMORE is bred to love the lawn. His rider has won with six of his 12 local mounts this meet. 5-GOGH has had a couple breaks in training but should still be ready for savvy connections. 4-THIEVER has solid drills, including a couple bullets, but get the feeling that he’s going to need a race. 

Very solid race for a $10k claimer. The five-furlong distance makes it especially interesting. I’m thinking that 4-FAITHFUL RULER will be the first to the lead. At this short distance he just might hold it together. 3-ZOOMBIE invades. He’s coming off a narrow victory in Indiana. However, he wasn’t able to catch top choice two races ago at this same distance. 2-GRAND HIDEAWAY has been very consistent. His rider will have him tracking the pace, hoping the top pair lock in a speed duel and tire late. Just throw out the last race of 6-NAGY AND THE BEARS. He was going to be severely outclassed in a turf stakes anyway but any chance he might have had evaporated when the race was moved to the main track. But, at this level, he’s a very real threat. 

6-SHARP ATTACK looked sharp breaking her maiden in last. She was making her second start for this barn and her second start of the year. Obviously meets better when taking on winners but like the tenacity she showed in both of her 2025 races. She might have to fight for the lead but think she can put the rest of the speed away and finish with something left. 3-SAFECRACKER SUE drops in class, turns back in distance, and moves back to the main track. Forget last on the lawn, she was in far better form on the main track prior. Could bounce back in a big way. 5-SHE STOPPED SHORT was in much too tough in her first start against winners. It’s been three months since that race but she has been training well and she’s dropping to a reasonable level. Guessing she’ll be attacking late.  

1-GUNNY SACK has had two turf races and ran well in each, finishing second both times. Goes from maiden claimers into a maiden special but also moves from open company into Illinois breds. Slim pick in a wide-open race. 7-FRONTIER MARSHALL ran well in every start this year. He’ll be making his turf debut but runners from this barn usually excel on the lawn. Probable favorite could deserve it. 6-JAKES CHANNEL is likely to go right to the lead. He led most of the way in last but gave it up late. Might hold on longer this time.  

7-MAASAI WARRIOR could surprise. His recent main track form leaves a lot to be desired but he was racing well against far better than these on Louisiana turf earlier this year. With the move back to the lawn he just might wake up. 5-TEMPER TANTRUM just never fired as the favorite in last. However, this late runner won his prior two starts. He does look like the one to beat but still a bit concerned about last. 1-VITALE just dominated in last in a race originally scheduled for turf. However, he had been in good form on the weeds prior to that race. Think he likes the front end but he is going to have to deal with some other speed in this field. Still, he might last. 

The pair of runners trained by Michele Boyce looks awfully tough. Wouldn’t be surprised if they completed the exacta. Only a neck separated them at the wire in last, finishing second and fourth in a blanket finish. I’m going with 6-BUTTONS AND LACE. She might be light on experience but might have the most upside. 7-RIETTA owns better tactical speed but she might have to fight a bit to get clear. 4-SUPRISE ME AGAIN finished directly between the top pair in that race. She went off as a longshot in that spot but expect her to draw far more action today.