Handicapper Tips & Picks

#8 TUPELO brings upside from their debut with a legitimate TROUBLE+ trip resulting in an EX - EXCUSE on 6/7 at CD. That race has been productive with the horses that have run back improving, holding their own and including two next out winners. There has been intent to run at DMR and this course and distance entered under similar conditions back on 7/24. 

#6 JUDITH also noted EX - EXCUSE in their debut last October at KEE showing run after the TACTIC- with in running TROUBLE and despite the running line/finishing position put in a strong CLOSE behind the top four together at the wire. They returned from the long layoff 19-days ago given an upgrade making a WIDE RUSH into a Very Fast early (and Very Fast late) pace before losing ground and appears no worse for the wear wheeling back in this spot and should hold conditioning. 

#5 HEADS IN BED also scratched from the 7/24 turf sprint and showed run on debut following the SLOG/TROUBLE_S and TACTIC- late MOVE with the race flow behind the open length pacesetting winner, Comeback Girl. 

#4 SAMMY DAVIS showed a lot of ability and talent training in the mornings and ran to it on debut with the B+ OptixGRADE and solid speed figure in a higher par than any of the other runners in the field. SAMMY DAVIS was toey/WASTED pre-race something that can often see horses lose their race before it started though might have played a role in the RUSH. The connections see fit to step up less than three weeks later for this stakes event and appears to have come out of the race additionally publishing a half mile move less than a week ago. 

A weaker favorite as #7 DRUM ROLL PLEASE lacks the edge that would be expected for the even money ML projection in this race. They are making the distance change and their runstyle should be contested given the higher SpeedRate.

#6 CABERNAYDO finds the change in class while returning to the Tapeta following a couple of subtle trips on the turf. They landing the win back on 5/31 under an identical par to today's event and similar SpeedRate. 

The race shape could suit the runstyle of #1 COLONEL MUSTARD as they make a belated two turn return. Their form this this race is more competitive than the recent finishing positions suggest. That includes the race last week (8/1) recorded a B- OptixGRADE, the same GRADE recorded by DRUM ROLL PLEASE on 7/11 at this level. 

#1 PRIMA finds positive changes to move up in this spot. The class change in notable as is the surface switch returning to the TURF . They raced on the TURF last season in a higher $50kOC event at 6.5f needing class DROP. The TURF start this season on 7/5 can be upgraded making a RUSH DUEL X_FLOW. 

LONGSHOT: #4 DEVIL'S TONGUE perhaps is not as much of a "longshot" as an individual in this race for a horse that finds class relief (technically and par) to move up naturally and given a flow upgrade from their 5/24 debut (productive race) with subtle trips since. The price compensation is required with the lower percentage connections including pick up rider S. Jones looking for their first win since returning to the saddle this year and could be a live mount for them.