Handicapper Tips & Picks

The early pace projects to be honest looking at the Plot, the bunched Q1/3 noted Fire Contention. That still leaves a lower SpeedRate requiring some tactical speed and finish where #5 MON AMI FUZZIE should track with first run and a threat to pair up wins. Their connections have found the right level and again look to have found the right race shape.

#4 OFF TO THE RACES does not present a pace edge when looking at the Plot though does hold a subtle class edge. They find a softer race par compared to the two recent starts to move up naturally. As far as the Plot and their runstyle, they are positioned as a front runner and can compete on the front end though going through their races to date they have not always been a need the lead type. A rider change to S. Gonzalez (paired with the change in par/class similar to their win back on 6/3) could find the right trip, time and place. 

#1 HOODLUM finds a favorable spot to return in and slight freshening for this second start of the meet. The timing was a reservation wheeling back in 11-days for the 7/3 event, a race they held their own (B-) and clear show with the top two together at the wire. This spot is a clever one as they can race protected backed on one start when in for $5k back in Dec 2023. Looking at the Plot, they should lack excuse when it comes to pace (though the rail perhaps not their ideal) with tactical speed to track behind the pacesetters, #2 GENERAL ISSUE and #4 DEL RAYO.

That first run trip will be key especially with the strong late kick (Q4 Square) of runners #3 DANVILLE and #6 CODE RUNNER.

#5 EVERDOIT projects a similar runstyle and trip to HOODLUM in this spot and a value look on that in this race. Overall numbers fit on par with a top effort though overall can be on the lighter side, something that should translate to higher (necessary to play) odds. While they require that top effort to win, this does mark the third start of the current cycle and going back to their TAM win on 3/19 they caught a similar Sun Contention and SpeedRate. 

This is a tricky race with many horses trying something “new” whether a class change, a surface change or distance with the shorter 5f in play. Looking at the “established” form #4 PONCHO ATTACK holds competitive races at this level and distance, and just limited starts, going back to last season. They held their own in N1 allowance company as well and as recently as the B- OptixGRADE and place finish while on a one-week turnaround in the 6/12 start.

The belated return to a sprint makes #6 SHTARKER a bit of a wild-card though otherwise a fit on form, class and speed figures. They land in a lower race par not just from the races this season but the lowest in their career. This marks the third start of the cycle coming off the layoff making a RUSH in a Fast early pace back on 5/18 and with TROUBLE_S made a WIDE MOVE and B- OptixGRADE despite the 6^th place outcome in the 7/6 event. They find a rider change today and rider D. Sanchez picking up the mount, this being their lone mount on the card. 

This appears a solid maiden event with contenders from the two 4yo with experience in #3 MELLIFLUOUS and #7 MIDTERM. Sophomore #5 OY GEVALD recorded the highest figures in the field from their debuted and first two starts on the year. This marks the second start of the cycle and some adversity from the 7/3 event including acting up (fractious) in the GATE; while making a return to the main track and freshening for their second start this season.

That group could find competition from the set of FTS including the pair of #2 ANTHONY THE GREAT and #4 TONYS KINGDOM for A. Hernandez. The barn has a smaller sample of FTS overall just 7 since March 2020. In that sample four debuted on the dirt in IL (three at HAW all in MSW) with a strong showing with 2 wins and place and show.

C. Block also with a pair including FTS #6 O’ PATRICK with steady works including a strong move from the gate on 7/23 and appears overall to have some run. Stablemate #1 COOL LESTER SMOOTH wheels back from their debut and shifts to the dirt for this second start. They should be familiar with this main track working here prior to the grass debut last month at HS Indy, including a work just 5-days before 7/10 and appears to have come out of the race well working twice since keeping up their conditioning. The STRETCH should be to their benefit along with the experience though has an addition hurdle with the rail draw. 

#8 SADIE’S SWEET RIDE is logical right back. She showed improvement with the first two starts in June racing against open company moving up in statebred for the 7/17 event. She recorded a B- OptixGRADE in the place finish, a less than ideal trip/TACTIC- racing inside/SAVED on hold. T. Overall she presents upside being lightly raced of the group from the 7/17 common race and in comparison to the other established types in the field even with similar figures.

Both E. Essenpreis runners are deserving of a look showing up first time on this circuit. Number wise #7 HOT T’MATER has recorded the higher figures and finishing in front of their stablemate in the 7.8 common race projects to be the shorter of the two. With that said, 4yo #4 RAZ ON FIRE took KICKBACK in that 7/8 race impacted with heavy rain WEATHER conditions and should have clear conditions and surface switch to further avoid taking dirt.

#9 LAUREN’S WAR should move up with the return to TURF. They will also find a rider change with M. Pedroza taking over and looking for a new top in this third start on the year. 

Arguably #2 SLAVA UKRAINI has had their most recent success with S. Gonzalez in the saddle and that noted rider change today for this second start off the layoff and noted TACTIC- in the 7/31 start. While they have been effective hitting the board, that win has been dodging them since July 2023.

#4 NEW YEAR SURPRISE recorded a strong figure picking up the win on the class drop three weeks ago and reasonable to step back up the class ladder following the big effort. The race did not come out of no where and even going back to the 6.8 start under similar par and conditions they recorded a B- OptixGRADE in the 4^th place outcome over the WEATHER impacted poor track conditions.

#6 VERRAZANOINTHESKY recorded a B OptixGRADE at the level with the place finish on 7/6 validated that effort with another B and the win on 7/17. They showed they have the class and the figures on par with the distance change the altered variable here. Going back to the 2023 season when racing at this course/distance they recorded figures consistent with their current form including a pair of wins.

Price compensation is required for #1 PETE’S LEGACY as a runner that sits BELOW on Speed and Class though can be upgraded with today’s race shape as well as their 7/12 effort with a TROUBLE_S and CLOSE X_FLOW in that show outcome. 

#5 TALL GIRL should be sitting on a peak effort while bringing in buried form for this third start of the current form cycle. She had the freshening leading into the 6/12 start; a trip and race shape (Very Slow early/late) with the TACTIC- making a WIDE MOVE and presented upside. The turf race on 7/3 did not appear to have intent (PREP) and noted with the running line and finishing position along with a solid GALLOP+ suggesting they were not asked for their best on the day.

In terms of #3 LADY HELENA they project to get a lot of public attention with the change in class, early speed and overall speed figures that fit on par and as some of the higher recent numbers in the field. While all of those factors are tough to argue against, she has shown as of late an “every other” pattern and could be on the downswing as that pattern with the 5/18 and 6/28 numbers sit below. That “every other” pattern gave #4 GHAALEB’S RANGER a look on 7/6 and validated the cycle with the dominant/B+ they will be tested to repeat here.

#8 NO NANNETTE NO requires a top effort and racing luck to win, though brings in upside from the 7/13 start with the WIDE (and NO_PUSH) trip and key class DROP to keep in the mix. 

The complexion of this race (Plot) paired with the shorter 5f distance makes for a tricky handicapping puzzle. Shifting to OptixGRID and filtering races at 5f distance a few horses emerge, while many are unproven.

The recency edge with #4 ZOOMBIE wheeling back in a week from a less than ideal trip also from a SETUP in the 7/14 win making them a softer favorite last week. A lot of their trip adversity came from the break and not a one-off occurrence and overall a liability while certainly capable. Looking at the Standard Plot there is not much between ZOOMBIE and #2 DEVIL’S RED to include though the 5f a noted change along with the recent pattern of SLOG they must turnaround with the quickness here.

Trip is key for #8 STAR OF KODIAK though one that has been able to win over this course and 5f distance as well as 5f turf sprint suggest at AP earlier on in their career. They also have had success with A. Bendezu in the saddle and that rider change noted here. Similar trip concern for #10 COMISKY PARK with their runstyle and added hurdle with the outside draw for M. Pedroza to overcome.

Buried 5f form gives a look to #3 SEVERANCE also returning from a legitimate EX - EXCUSE from the TROUBLES+ and showing run/MOVE in the 7/26 start at FP. #9 WAUHATCHIE has had most of their 5f success on the dirt though still willing to include at the right price. 

#1 SAN ANTON ultimately might prefer a SHORTER distance though with the change in class when keying off their route numbers from 2023 a repeat of those efforts makes them the clear horse to beat. Those efforts were once upon a time and must show off their return starts this year they have those back races in them.

The other Square on both Standard and Surface/Distance belongs to #2 BLACK RUSSIAN one that is upgraded with today’s STRETCH out in distance and has shown their best (numbers/outcome) at the route distance. Stablemate #5 MONEY AGENT has been more effective in the recent sprints though that could also be due to the TURF and going back to the start of their career as a sophomore recorded numbers consistent with their current figures on the grass.

#9 RAGNOW paired up B OptixGRADE (winning effort for the level) earlier this season in the 4/13 and 5/1 start. They also showed TURF physicality for the prior connections giving them a look when landing on the grass on 5/18 though could have been “toppish” at the time and the WIDE trip certainly did not appear to help.

#8 CASH APP MIKE must run a career best to win today though another that has shown figure improvement with the shift to turf. They projected to move up from the 5/11 sprint with the STRETCH in distance and finding that opportunity on 6/26 took part in a Fast early pace and a flow upgrade from that start. 

Four, possibly five of these six runners want the early lead. I’m thinking that sets things up for a closer. The question is how Giles will ride 5-MON AMIE FUZZIE. They won their last race, taking the lead soon after the first quarter. But they would have to fight for the lead in this race. However, he might be even better when coming from off the pace. If they take back early and save their best run for late, they could win their second in a row. 3-LAND MARK DEAL is in poor recent form but he’s turning back in distance which could get him turned around. He might be the best late runner in the field and the pace will set up. Could surprise. We know 1-WINGING WAYS wants the lead. He wired the field in last when meeting similar after narrowly losing his previous start with a similar pace scenario. If he scares the other front runners off early, he just might be able to wire his second field in a row.  

I’m thinking 4-DEL Rayo might be the best of the speed. He hasn’t had many chances, or a lot of luck, on dirt but he’s making his first start for this barn and they win about 38% of the time when runners debut for them. He does tend to run out of gas late but maybe that will change for his new barn. 1-HOODLUM ran well to finish third in his local debut. That race was probably considerable tougher than this one. He’s a versatile runner with the ability to run well on or off the pace. Might be good enough. 5-EVERDOIT seems likely to come on late. He finished in the money versus similar in last two in Ohio. Might be able to run them all down.  

Certainly not in love with 4-PONCHO ATTACK with 23 races and only the one win but we at least know he handles turf sprints and we can be pretty sure that he’s going to come running late. 8-IDIOSYNCRASIES might not be the best of the speed but he’s quick enough to challenge for the lead and he has shown more staying power than many of the rest. He finished third in his lone turf race, a maiden claimer in Indiana late last year. Could better that today. 6-SHTARKER isn’t in the best of form but he might not have to be at his best to win against this field. Welcome back Diego Sanchez.   

5-OY GEVALD appears to be in the right spot. He didn’t seem all that comfortable on turf in last and he wasn’t a fan of the nine-furlong distance in his previous start at Oaklawn. Heard good things about him early in the meet. Guessing it will be his graduation day. There are three first timers in the race with outstanding drills and all race for high-percentage barns but think I’ll go with 6-O' PATRICK for second. The other two first timers might have faster drills but this barn doesn’t often work their horses this quickly. The two Donato owned Hernandez trained runners, 2-ANTHONY THE GREAT and 4-TONYS KINGDOM have been working mostly in company and popping bullets. Both look fully prepared to compete for top prize.  

Illinois-bred turf maidens are often pretty tough to handicap, though this race is likely to feature a pretty heavy favorite. However, I’m going in a different direction. 3-DAISY MAE ATTACK has never been close in any contest and there are no huge reasons to think she’ll improve enough to win this. However, she’s coming off her best race by far. She finished fifth in that race after making a big late move. But she was blocked late and was unable to sustain that bid. She’s bred to be a turf sprinter. She races Lasix for the second time. Might be poised to surprise. 8-SADIE'S SWEET RIDE will be favored and might deserve it. She just finished second versus similar. However, she only beat top pick by a couple lengths and she had a clean trip. 2-TIZMEONEMORETIME has had a few recent turf races against Illinois breds and she ran well in all, including a third-place finish against the boys in last.   

Wide open race but leaning to 7-AMERICAN CAUSE. He is stretching back out and could prove to be the best of the speed. 4-NEW YEAR SUPRISE Just dominated lower-level claimers. HE might be taking on tougher but his speed figures suggest he could be the fastest of these. 5-QUALITY STORM can’t be ignored. He won a sprint decisively in last but he also finished second against better non-winners of two in his lone route in Indiana last year. Definite speed threat. 

3-LADY HELENA is the best of the speed. She’s been in too deep since getting claimed by this barn but she’s dropping back to the right level for this. Guessing she’ll grab the immediate lead and never look back. 4-GHAALEB'S RANGER just crushed similar rivals. She tracked the pace early but hit the afterburners coming out of the turn and just ran away from the field. If top pick doesn’t make the lead easily, she could repeat. 8-NO NANNETTE NO is back to the right level. She was in much too tough in last and her previous race was on the lawn. She dominated the field, including many of these rivals, the last time she raced at a level similar to this.  

10-COMISKEY PARK never won on turf in seven starts but all of his turf races have been versus better. He’s coming off a sharp victory against similar rivals on dirt but think he’ll do fine in the transition back to turf. 4-ZOOMBIE was favored in last at this level but considerable traffic issues cost him dearly. The pace will set up for him. Can run them down. 1-SHAKE UP has had three turf races and he ran well in all of them. He’s versatile and can handle any pace. Figures prominently. 

Not crazy about 1-SAN ANTON but at least he has a history of running well on the law. Takes blinkers off for his second local try and his second race for this barn. Stretches out. Has a good chance to lead throughout. 9-RAGNOW finished second in his lone turf race. He was beaten by 15 lengths but the winner of that race went on to win his next start while this runner was clear of the rest of the field. 8-CASH APP MIKE is likely to display good speed. He tired late in his turf route debut but he had to fight for the early lead. Might get away unchallenged today.