Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is a competitive race where looking to get creative #2 ROYAL LAUGHTER fits on speed figures and class as well as current form; arguably even intent for this second start of the cycle. In terms of the surface switch she showed TURF visuals from the OP debut back in April 2023 and off that race went to CBY looking for the grass in the three following starts including the second career start MSW win. Last season she showed up in a turf race under similar conditions to today’s event, though changes coming off the 159-day layoff and broke SLOG while also WIDE in the 4^th place outcome.

#7 SPICY ITALIAN and #4 DEAL’EM AND WEEP project to battle for favoritism in this race and both logical. SPICY ITALIAN finds a subtle change in race dynamic and timing something that could be to her benefit and does hold surface versatility. DEAL’EM AND WEEP asserted their class edge with the dominant/B+ $20k N2 claiming win last month and will look for that to career here under similar conditions and just slightly higher race par.

#6 OH MACARENA fits this race shape and should hold some value for the connections especially with the running line and finishing position 11-days ago though a noted higher class level and in running TROUBLE. #3 WHAT’S TO DO comes in off a slight freshening and from the 6/19 HS Indy win. The connections had considered running her here last month in an allowance though waiting out this spot to remain in claiming company. 

Current form is the main question mark in this race even when assessing #4 RACETOTHEFINISH one that “on paper” appears the clear horse to beat and even catch with their early speed. While none of that is in question, the 7/19 start left something to be desired visually while also noting a Fast early pace (early/late) and the higher class level and addition of blinkers for the first time in her career. The class change in this case could cycle back to the first statement taking the drop off a poor effort and at the lowest level of her career.

Looking a the local group #5 LOST SUNSET could have their hands full with RACETOTHEFINISH contesting the lead and both in terms of winning the battle and the war. Number wise #3 RUNNERS HEAT sits on the lower end of par and from that standpoint has hurdles and requires value. At the same time, they have had some subtle trips required the class DROP from the higher level races starting out this season and also picking up a rider change to at the least signal some intent. 

This is a solid field of runners and each horse merits a look in their own right. Looking at the race as a while and how the pace should impact the outcome both #4 JOURNEYIST and #5 EMPIRICAL VIEW fit with the running style in addition to class, speed and form.

EMPIRICAL VIEW arguably has the slight class edge and even upside of the two lightly raced despite being close in age with the layoffs surrounding her 2024, the 4yo campaign. EMPIRICAL VIEW will STRETCH out for the first time this season though should handle today’s 7.5 distance and not concerned with that change. Keying off that abbreviated 2024 season, EMPIRICAL VIEW might have been a little outclassed (DROP) though to her credit turned in a solid number in the higher level allowance off the layoff at CD on 5/30 compromised with the lack of recency, the outside post and class. That race was followed up here at Hawthorne with the 6/16 allowance a race show had in running TROUBLE less than ideal TACTIC- and projected to IMPROVE, something everyone had to be patient for with the layoff that followed that race.

Most of the field coming in off slight breaks (45+ days) with the exception of #3 MY BUDDY BROOKS also showing up off a win and a confident step up in class. Her 7/13 win was game taking and holding through pace PRESSED and worked for the win with the contention both by the company and the Fast early and late race shape. MY BUDDY BROOKS also made a positive PRERACE+ appearance something to look for again today. A new top effort will be key for the top spot when looking at the figures to date, on the lower end though has shown improvement on the turf on numbers. They will need to follow that progressive pattern though not out of the question just requires some price compensation. 

The rail draw has been a hinderance this season for the two A. Hernandez runners and while not ideal for #1 CAMP DADDY today (one that has upside at this level overall) moving off 1 post for #5 LUNDBERG is key change. LUNDBERG has struggled from the rail during their career and the inside this season impacting the trip in the Work All Week stakes as well as the X_FLOW on 6/19 and TROUBLE on 7/10 playing a role in the show outcome. In addition to the change in post, they find the change in class running for the $25k tag (not the first time in for a tag for this barn, though first time this season and for $25k) and a decision they are probably not taking lightly as they could see a claim and at the the same time looking for the win.

LUNDBERG has tactical speed not a need the lead type and the draw can assist with that stalking trip looking for first run or even taking the lead if the pace is slow and that is necessary. That trip key with their former stablemate #4 CORTESE a solid closer one that fit at this level and coming off win under similar conditions last month and can go back-to-back. 

Starting the analysis with ML favorite #3 GLAMORA one that on speed figures has recorded the highest in this field and the horse to beat on that front. They also find the change in class both with the MCL price change, par and circuit switch. She will be stretching out for the two turn distance for the first time and the connections reasonable making that change here going 7.5f. As far as the two starts this season. She had legitimate EX – EXCUSE with the TROUBLES+ coming off the layoff in March followed up with a WIDE trip in May. The layoff lines are the biggest concern and create reservations more than anything while attached to a projected shorter number.

#1 POLSKA SUE moved up on the turf and moved up at the MCL level they return from here. They also return on quick rest and from a subtle trip last meet while under that higher par and hot pace – a Very Fast early/late giving a double flow upgrade while also staying on as the BOS through a Fast early/late pace under similar conditions with the place finish on 6/26. #8 TRINITYTHREEINONE also worth a mention from the 6/26 common race making a strong CLOSE (after a TACTIC_ NO_PUSH early on) both runners recording a B- OptixGRADE with the opposite style trips.

While a “faster” race is required for the pair: #7 HELEN OF C’VILLE should move up on the TURF following the recent visuals and with that change arguably one we have yet to see their best; #2 CATNIP HILL worth perhaps another look on turf given the TROUBLES+ EX -EXCUSE last out and flow upgrade from 6/12  while also one that needed the class DROP from the earlier starts in MSW company. 

#6 BLURT once again appears to hold a front end (Q1) pace advantage and while looking for that to materialize on the win end, this should be the time and place. They presented a similar pace advantage, however, giving up recency from the 239-day layoff back on 6/12. Following that race a X_FLOW upgrade from 6/29 as well as 7/10 both races run back on shorter rest between starts and finds a reasonable 35-day freshening here.

The lack of recency might have been the knock on #7 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE coming off their 214-day layoff with the front wraps added to present upside here second off. They did not have an “excuse” on trip 7/20 taking part in a Slow early/late pace (FTQ) though should all around assist on fitness. LOOKIN FOR REVENGE has some of the higher back numbers and class to lean on when looking to separate from rivals #2 MR UNIVERSE and #8 SIXWILLBERICH runners with a similar runstyle and “lookin” for a similar trip.

When speaking of back class #4 READTHECLIFFNOTES is that horse and while racing first time in their career at the conditional $5k claiming level, the connections running for the $7.5 higher IL-bred allowance price. The change in class is one seeking a win, not a concern change in this case going back to summer 2023 for their most recent win. Current form and figures fit at this level and suggest he still wants to race just needs the right level. 

In the finale, the race shape for this turf sprint is interesting and should have a say on the outcome. The Fire Contention (number of horses in Q1) is paired with a low-to-moderate 24 SpeedRate and with six of the eight runners sharing the E or EP runstyle. All of that to say, pace should make the race though added hurdle as no one has a pace advantage or disadvantage to compete.

That includes #6 CODE NAME (even when looking at Plot position/shape) returning from the layoff and placed where they can compete. They have two races over this turf sprint course from last season that can be upgraded. The layoff return in allowance company last June was run in the rain/WEATHER and CODE NAME to their credit parked WIDE and X_FLOW on a Fast early pace and followed up with another WIDE allowance trip (and NO_PUSH) over a Good rated turf course in September just before the layoff. Those trips and class level noted as they are impacting the Plot position and shape here.

The GP numbers overall fit on #4 SEVERANCE and could even suggest intent second off with the connections scratching from the OC$10k 5f turf sprint last Sunday to run here instead. The intent follows second off the layoff and from the TROUBLES+ EX – EXCUSE on 7/26 at FP. Those races and overall being lightly raced are impacting their Plot position.

Projected favorite #5 SAWYER FOX brings in consistent figures, tactical speed and finishing ability (Q1 Square) reasons to back up their role as the favorite though still one that in this group requires a top effort to win and will be tested to earn it. 

We had a lot of rain between Monday and Tuesday so there is no guarantee this race will be on turf. But, if it does get moved to the main track, 8-END OF INNOCENCE could turn out to be awfully tough. She had some good races at Oaklawn but really kicked into another gear in her local debut after getting claimed from her final Arkansas start. She crushed that field. But they tried her on turf in her next start and she failed miserably. However, if she’s back on dirt for this, I would expect a dramatic wake up. 4-DEAL‘EM AND WEEP is the one they have to beat on turf. Late runner just scored in a NW2 while making her second start of the year. Team of Block and Mojica is winning at 34% for the year. 7-SPICY ITALIAN takes on a bit better but she has been running competitively in recent turf races, finishing in the money in both turf contests this meet. She was beaten as the favorite in both those races. Has a legitimate chance to make amends. 6-OH MACARENA is more versatile than most in here. She never fired against allowance company in last but she beat $14.5 claimers by seven in her previous start. She could be headed right to the lead. 

4-RACETOTHEFINISH takes a substantial drop in class. Speedy runner races without blinkers today after a one-race experiment with them. She tends to run out of gas late but she might just toy with this field at this level. 2-A REAL HERO looks like the best of the rest. Ships back from Fairmount. She’s had seven local races and finished in the money in one of them, including a win here a year ago. She’ll be tracking the fast pace set by top choice. If that rival does her fade, this mare could edge by late. 3-RUNNERS HEAT is usually competitive when racing at this level. She hasn’t been as quick as top choice but she could be leading the second tier of runners. Rider switch could make a difference. 

7-ROAR OF SILENCE might run them down. Lightly-raced filly hasn’t competed in 10 weeks and slightly concerned with her break in training but know this barn wouldn’t run her if she wasn’t ready to compete. 4-JOURNEYIST has yet to win on turf but think her running style will be favored by what should be a contested early pace today. Expecting her to attack late. 5-EMPIRICAL VIEW hasn’t had a lot of success in previous two-turn races but she did look sharp and full of run when winning last at five and a half and would have to think the extra quarter mile of this race would be within her range.  

5-LUNDBERG might have found a bit easier, though not easy, spot. He just finished third in a “key” race with at least the first two finishers going on to win their next starts. He might be the quickest of these if they choose to send him, but he certainly doesn’t need to be on the early lead to win this. 4-CORTESE could have dead aim late. He won the last time he raced and faces a similar pace scenario today. If you like Lundberg coming out of last start you have to at least take a look at 6-FAST JACK. He finished only a nose behind that rival in their last start and had some traffic trouble to overcome.

Can make a far better case against any of the runners in here than a case where they should win but someone has to finish first. 1-POLSKA SUE is coming off a terrible effort, but she was simply in over her head. She was competitive in most races where she faced rivals similar to these. The drop back to the right level could do the trick. On paper, 3-GLAMORA would seem to stand out. However, she’s had a definite issue with layoffs and she’s shipping here from southern California with a subsequent big drop in claiming price and a move to a new barn. She has been training well, however, and might simply finally be in the spot where she belongs. 6-THINK FAST raced at the back of the pack before finally passing one in her lone start. She’s another that changed barns after that race. She’s dropping in class and adding blinkers. She has continued to train well for her new connections. Expecting a far better effort than she displayed in last. 5-SHE’S FIERCE sports slow drills but top-notch connections while making her career debut. She’s bred for the lawn and her barn always places their runners in the right spot to give them the best shot. Don’t overlook.

Not sure what 4-READTHECLIFFNOTES has left in the tank but it could still be enough to win at this level. He’ll probably be racing right off the early lead. Might outlast the rest. 5-GLOBAL EMPIRE wheel back quickly and at the same level after getting claimed from last. He has been pretty consistent throughout his career, stalking the pace and finishing well. Would expect that to continue for his new connections. 8-SIXWILLBERICH doesn’t have a big late move but he usually finishes well. Could grab a late share.

This race is jam packed with early speed. 2-RED RIZZLER might be the only one coming on late. He raced competitively in all his turf sprints, winning last two. Under the radar runner could run by them all in the stretch. 5-SAWYER FOX does look like the best of the speed. Lightly-raced runner was narrowly defeated going seven and a half in his last start. He was favored in that race and is likely to be once again. Could put the rest of the speed away and run away from the field. 1-WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK is one of those likely to be fighting for the lead. He tired late in last couple and could again but he has been a factor in almost all his turf races. Can be again.