Handicapper Tips & Picks

Vulnerable favorite #5 TENNESSEEHONEYBEE with hurdles in today's race shape (Fire/62 SpeedRate) and coming off a HARD win only 19-days ago. 

#6 OUTRAGEOUS should hold value given the connections and recent outcome. While posting an improved figure on the turf on 7/27 (a higher par/purse than the  TENNESSEEHONEY $10k N2 event on the same day) they were not at the right conditions (class) and distance (STRETCH) while also noted timing coming off a win on 7/6 to follow a form cycle pattern here. 

#2 MADIHA has been given the 40-day freshening since their win back on 7/6 (a higher par/purse than the 7/6 race OUTRAGEOUS won at on the same day) to suggest intent and well-placed in this spot. Trip could the prime hurdle in today's race shape and drawn inside where they could be further off the pace and from there to put in a later run. 

#8 PURE CHAOS fits as a contender (and a good name for a crust punk band) in this spot. They showed run with a subtle trip on debut back on 6/14 at SA given a subtle flow upgrade making WIDE MOVE after an early SHUFFLE and followed up on 7/25  (common race) with a clear flow upgrade chasing NO_COVER on a Very Fast early (and VF late) pace before NO_KEEP and noted WARM on the day to monitor prerace. 

#1 MPERFECTION is a longshot though has been consistent number wise and consistent SLOG perhaps the rider change and addition of blinkers suggesting intent looking for that to turn around here. In each start, they have shown run; a tougher spot to debut around two turns on 6/14 and followed up with the outside draw naturally WIDE trip putting in a sneaky CLOSE. 

There is no hesitation to look towards the group of FTS in this race. Of the horses with racing experience: #3 PASALUBONG can be upgraded from their debut last month. Primarily the class DROP being key while the trip not the most ideal either noting a RUSH inside/SAVED to TROUBLE though again outclassed and the right overall move from MSW to MCL here. #7 RIVERALATION also with some upside from their debut last month at EMD (form from 7/12 holding up) given the TACTIC_ SLOG and some subtle adversity while racing inside and behind horses. #9 IT NOT FOR CAS put in a CLOSE behind the pacesetting winner and in a race with minimal change in running order for their debut last month at LRC.

Number wise #2 DARE TO BE KING has recorded the highest figures in the field over the inner turf course and upgraded on that front. This should be the time and place for them to cycle up to a peak effort, third off and from the WIDE (outside post) and NO_PUSH on 7/19. 

#3 SOL DE VERANO can be upgraded from the effort at this level back on 7/6 - a race that has held form and productivity. SOL DE VERANO had TROUBLE on the day and was just one of two 3yo in the field against older. They validated their effort/trip moving forward in the 7/27 show finish on the Tapeta. 

#5 SHARP FLAME brings upside back to the Tapeta and competitive off the efforts (Class/Speed) from earlier this season. They follow a second off pattern and quick two week turnaround from the TROUBLE_S and late run in the 8/1 event. 

In terms of ML/projected favorite #3 GREY PRINCESS (vulnerable) as the public should gravitate toward the higher last out finish and open length win - a strong B+ effort however project REGRESS given the effort and TACTIC+ trip. If they are not favored here, the public could shift to #7 STREGA one that fits on their best day another third off with some of the higher back Speed figures in this group. Trip could be a hurdle given the outside and complexion of this field -- something that could come down to their rider tactics as well as those used by some of the potential E/EP types. 

LIVE LONGSHOT: #5 PEGGY brings in current form and figures with a key change back around two turns to the innercourse. She broke her maiden over this course and 7.5 distance last season and continued to hold form and numbers on the higher side her them. Those efforts can be upgraded in today's conditions; class relief from the races last year at this higher level and on class a lower par then the two recent N2 outer turf sprints into this race. 

A playable race as starting the analysis with a weaker ML favorite in #2 DEPUTY DADDY after two straight wins both earned with Red Keywords to downgrade here. In terms of ML second choice #7 SHADOW REALM they are unproven over the course and distance though did on current form, figures and class. 

Longshot look: #1 LITTLE RED DOMI presents upside from their juvenile season as well as the races returning in 2025. They raced at this level back on 5/25 on the Tapeta making a PRERACE+ appears subtle TROUBLE- and NO_PUSH following the NO_FINISH. The following two starts on the turf recording C+ OptixGRADE, lower than a winning effort for the level to support the class drop and paired with a positive rider change.

#9 BANKING ON A MIRACLE wheels back with a change in class and flow upgrade on 7/27 while also a projected REGRESS following the 7/6 win. #10 NEXT PITCH does not present as much upside here though brings in current form, positive every other pattern and figures that fit on par.