Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 STRAWBERRY TIZZY fits as well as a contender (and value alternative to the ML favorite) with the change in class and overall form and figures. They showed run leading up to the debut, the debut at this $50k MCL recording a B-/BTL effort at SA followed up with an EX - EXCUSE in their second start. 

#6 Z'S WARDROBE has the pattern of layoff lines at the same time finds a subtle change in class and should compete with that along with the placement running first time for the tag. Despite the prior pattern of layoff lines this second off comes after the SLOG and hard bump at the break/TROUBLE_S last month. 

#6 KISS ME COCO debuted during the first part of the meet racing at the higher MSW level projecting to appreciate the DROP here. They also raced inside/SAVED with the course profile favoring outside path runners. The intent to run at this meet along with the local experience and key changes should present their best chance to move up in this second start. 

#4 HEARTFULL OF JOY is worth taking a look at in the finale. There was intent for this circuit going back to last season, last season with both starts in MSW while running as a juvenile. They should appreciate the class DROP as well as following the same pattern of intent back on this circuit with a steady series of works and given the time off while racing for a tag, a top effort can be projected. 

#4 HOLIDAY ROSE presents value in this field as one of a few contenders. They follow the upswing of an "every other" pattern into this race while bringing in upside from the two-turn turf trip earlier this month. In terms of speed and class, the 7/18 race suggests they can compete here. That effort not a one off keying off a similar number recorded in the debut win. 

#10 GERALD recorded competitive figures that fit on par for this event during the latter part of 2024 and with this efforts in them this should be the right time and place to put in all together. They returned this season in MSW company and from the 5/24 sprint projected to improve with a STRETCH in distance. With that distance change paired with a subtle change in class intent appeared in play last month however might not have had their chance that day making a RUSH into a Very Fast early (and race shape Fast late) given a flow upgrade here. The connections also make another class change, the drop perhaps suggesting even further intent and shift to an outer post as a further change.