Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 TALL GIRL has a big look with an improving form cycle pattern leading into the 8/10 event and projects to hold form even a move forward for the new connections and rider change. The outcome was impacted given the TACTIC- X_WIDE trip into a Very Slow early/late pace was compromised there and upgraded once again here. In addition to For, Speed, and Class they fit today’s race shape (Q4 Square) looking at the Plot with Fire Contention and higher 63 SpeedRate.

On Surface/Distance TALL GIRL can “trip” even with the likes of the potential main rivals such as #3 PASTA SALAD RHONDA one that fits ABOVE on Speed/Class and for today’s pace/PLOT ABOVE+ in part to the change in class and recent figures. #6 RAINY MOUNTAIN also with competitive form and putting in a solid MOVE and GALLOP+ in the 8/10 common race with TALL GIRL.

Those runners should find an honest pace here with four of the six sharing the E/EP runstyle positioned visually with more than half of the field above the ParLine and in the case of #4 LILY’S CREED shipping back and stretching back out looking to still present controlling speed. 

Like Race 1, a similar pace dynamic could play out with three  of the five “bunched” together in Q1 contesting the early pace and all above the ParLine. #3 UNCASHED with the edge of that trio though still must run their race to hold off the late run from the other two.

#1 NAVY SEAL returns with a slight 51-day freshening and sneaky btl making a CLOSE as the lone runner to make up significant ground in their more recent start, the Iowa Sprint stakes last month at PRM. They hold form over this course and as recently as this season finishing a game CLOSE behind pacesetting winner, #5 KING CAB in the Work All Week stakes back on 5/25.

That race a common race with the other Q4 Square, #4 DEVIL’S TOWER not quite as strong on class (C+ v. B-) on that day though overall ABOVE Class and fits on speed figures. In terms of race shape with the Fire Contention and SpeedRate this is a scenario where they have had success in the past and would not discount here at the right number.

All IL-bred runner lining up in the feature, the Buck’s Boy stakes on the turf. In terms of Plot visuals and also Above on Class and Speed, #2 KATIE M’LADY and #3 ANOTHER MYSTERY stand out as the horses to beat and the start of the analysis assessing those main contenders. KATIE M’LADY draws well given their forward runstyle (Q1) and to the inside and inside of her main pacesetting rivals (stablemate #4 JOURNEY and #6 MAN ON ATTACK) and strong finishing ability as shown by the Square. That should allow the jump on the other main rival and fellow Square ANOTHER MYSTERY also drawn well to save ground and look to capitalize with their late kick.

C. Block also represented with #1 TOWERING STORM one that has shown improvement this season and in terms of speed figures. They bring in upside for this second start of the cycle, a quick 16-day turnaround from a competitive N2 allowance event (higher par and purse) last out at ELP to hold fitness landing here.

The three outside drawn runners: #5 LONE RETURN and #7 HARPER BRIANA for F. Alonso and #6 MAN ON ATTACK for S. Childers all bring in form and competitive types in their own right; however find a class test here and number wise on the lower end for today’s par. 

#4 MISS MIKOS fits this race on Class sitting as the lone runner ABOVE in the field for that category. They return with a slight 42-day freshening and should appreciate that change in timing while returning to the main track, 6f distance and claiming company.

#6 END OF INNOCENCE fits ABOVE in the other categories Speed and Plot/Pace while also finding the 59-day freshening and change class, surface/distance. She brings upside not only with those factors in play but also the recent 6/26 trip with the TROUBLES+ (lunged out broke in a tangle) and from there chased WIDE ran on late with a GALLOP+ behind the top three together at the wire.

In terms of pace, she can be upgraded on Surface/Distance while the overall race shape is a tougher read given the controlling speed (Q1) runner #1 BLUE LILY returns from another long 290-day layoff while also finding a slight change in class. Given those factors and even with the rail draw they could project to find company with #2 LALY just to their outside as well as #5 SHE STOPPED SHORT with tactical speed (Q3) and even #3 BEADS with W. Rodriguez aboard and Q3 Standard position would be no surprise forward at the first call. 

The notable rider change for #3 APRIL’S GEM with S. Gonzalez back aboard. She fits on current figures for today’s par and while improvement is required for this level she is an X_FLOW upgrade from the 8/7 event and slightly positive distance change for this mare. She is drawn inside the other pacesetting rivals when looking at the Plot, both #5 MY LADY SLEW and #6 UNION DOLLY respective Squares in their own way into this race and also consistent figures that fit on par.

#4 GET N TIPSY brings some upside for this third start of the cycle and subtle changes along with the progressive Speed figures on par for today’s event. She holds sneaky back Class (ABOVE) and looking at Surface/Distance Plot could find the first run tracking trip behind that Q1 flight and jump on rivals #2 LOTTA ROSES and #7 LONG TALL WOMAN – one that will be stretching out in distance around two turns for the first time in her career. 

Willing to make a longshot case for #1 PALACE MAGIC in this spot. Their current form makes them a more legitimate longshot, however, brings in some upside with the change in distance and subtle form cycle second off pattern. They turned in a competitive race recording the B- OptixGRADE under today’s conditions and long start at the course and distance back on 5/4, a race that fits on par. Going back in previous seasons she fits on this circuit and level with many career wins (10x winner) sneaks into this race with the “not won a race since April 25^th eligibility.  

The number should stay high in the double digit category given the recent finishing positions and numbers for PALACE MAGIC and the complexion of this field. That includes class droppers: #7 MOMENT TO SHINE with the big change and logical DROP however massively noted from the most recent allowance though looking to find where she fits and given the recent figures since returning from the layoff this move is reasonable, though still needs to run an improved race here. #4 HONOR HIS HALF quickly reclaimed and back to the level with the place finishes during the first part of July coming up short late at the shorter 5.5f distance and back to 6f here – likely to find pace company with #2 LOST SUNSET as well.

The class DROP is reasonable for #3 TIME BREAK one that finds the overall change in class despite closer to a lateral change from the recent FP races when looking at par from those June and July starts. The change in par is noted for #6 RUNNERS HEAT one that finds a lower par than her two most recent starts and while a reasonable “longshot” to win could be upgraded on that front while also slightly under the radar to be dismissed by the public. 

Another race shape projected contentious with the Fire rating and above average 58 SpeedRate. Both #4 LAVENDER EARL and #7 MAHONEY ROAD bring in early speed while #6 CONI’S COUP tends to be at the best with an assertive ride and could see that tactical change here. Those runners contesting the early pace (Q1 Circles) should set up for a first run tracking trip.

#1 WOODCOCK FLIGHT perhaps the most “obvious” in that role and returning from the show BLANKET finish at the higher $20k claiming level earlier this month. Looking at the Plot they share a position and shape to #2 RIVER REDEPTION bringing in current form and figures to compete in this spot with a live rider in L. Colon aboard.

#5 DAPPER DUDE likely overlooked of that set and similar on the Surface/Distance Plot. They return with form for this second start of the cycle  and remaining on the turf arguably their preferred surface though limited starts on the grass especially when considering finding the right placement for their abilities at the same time. Similar could be stated for #3 DIAMOND DAVE returning to the for the first time this year and just a second time since 2023. 

Tricky race given the complexion of the field and many unproven at the course and distance. #1 SHADY MCGEE has that covered and while they have some physical distance limitations when in the right spot with the right trip they can overcome. Those factors could fall into place here returning to the turf and O. Mojica jumping aboard, a rider that has fit them well in the past.

#3 TEMPER TANTRUM the most obvious of the current form surface/distance runners and capable of pairing wins right back in this spot. They bring in a strong late kick with the Square shown on the Plot, however the early pace is one of those tougher reads given the surface/distance changes. One of those “wild cards“ being #7 NEON DEION stretching out for just a third time in their career and stamina remaining a question mark.

S. Gonzalez has been aboard NEON DEION in the recent starts (and live mounts for Simonovich) notably shifting to #5 BAKENAKO another with early speed and proven turf form while looking for their first win this season, this could be the time and place for this individual while also given a flow upgrade part of the Fast early/late pace in the 8/3 event. 

This is a surprisingly tough race for a contest at this level. 3-PASTA SALAD RHONDA is probably the one to beat. She’s dropping quite a few levels for this. The last time she ran against straight claimers near this level, she won by six. However, her speed figures aren’t really much higher than those of most of her rivals. 4-LILY’S CREED drops and stretches back out. She was a fast-closing third in last sprinting but she’s always been far better going long and her barn wins with 28% of those stretching out She’s likely to be on or close to the lead throughout. 1-TALL GIRL finished third in her last start, racing at this level, but she was claimed from that race by a barn that wins with 46% of their first-time claims. 5-LUNARCY won her second race back and then finished second at this level in last. She likes the lead but is quite capable of making a late run. 

Short field but great race. Ging to give the edge to 1-NAVY SEAL. He always raced well on this track and he’s likely to get an ideal pace scenario ahead of him with possibly three runners fighting for the lead. 3-UNCASHED will be tough. He’s probably the quickest member of this field but not sure he’s quick enough to get an unchallenged lead and he often doesn’t fare well if he has to fight for the front end. 5-KING CAB will be one of those fighting for the lead. He beat top choice here two races back but showed little on turf when they shipped him to Indiana for a turf stakes last out. Still, he’s back on the main track. Should be hot on the pace. Late-running 4-DEVIL’S TOWER didn’t really fire in his last start here but he has run well here in the past. He has earned over $530k in races at this distance, winning 17 times from 35 starts. 2-ELI’S PROMISE is plenty quick but not sure he’s as quick as some in here.

2-KATIE M’LADY should enjoy a comfortable lead. She finished second to Another Mystery two races back, in September of last year, the last time she faced the boys, but was pushed a bit in the early going on a surface that was labeled yielding. Makes only her second start of the year and her first in 10 weeks but she has thrived off layoffs in the past. She’s going to be very tough to catch on this firm surface. 3-ANOTHER MYSTERY is a multiple stakes winner and the defending champion of this race but he hasn’t been the same runner this year as he has in the past. He won only one of his 2025 races while mounting only lackluster efforts in the other three. But he won six of his nine races on this course and you can never discount the Block barn at any level. 4-JOURNEY has suddenly emerged as a contender. While not as quick as stablemate “Katie”, and another girl meeting the boys, she probably has the second-best speed and gets in carrying a feather-light 114 pounds.

6-END OF INNOCENCE didn’t handle the company or the turf in her last start but she’s dropping to a better level while heading back to the main track. She crushed the field in her local debut back in May but hasn’t had many opportunities since. Her local romp took place around two turns but the vast majority of her races have been dirt sprints. She should be tough. Likely favorite 4-MISS MIKOS is another dropping in class and heading back to dirt after a couple lackluster turf tries, though those races were probably too short for her. She also won on dirt here early in the meet. Her barn wins with a lofty 47% of runners going from turf to dirt though that sample is pretty small. In any case, she’s the one to beat. 5-SHE STOPPED SHORT might be in a little tough but she did win two of her last three races. Can’t be dismissed.

7-LONG TALL WOMAN should get an ideal pace ahead of her. Winner of last at this level was able to run down her foes late while making her first start for this barn. This race is a quarter mile longer but that just might work in her favor. 5-MY LADY SLEW isn’t the only speed in the race but she seems to be at the top of her game. She ran surprisingly well against better in last and held on for second. She wired the field in her previous start at this level.  Not sure she’ll be able to get to the early lead but she could wear down the rest of the speed and finish with something left. 6-UNION DOLLY is probably the quickest of these but she got into a speed duel with April’s Gem in last, through blistering fractions, which cost both dearly. She’ll be facing that same mare today but doubt if the connections of that rival will choose to send her again. 

7-MOMENT TO SHINE drops sharply. She hasn’t shown much since getting claimed for $20k from a winning effort nearly a year ago but that’s likely to change big time with the drop to this level. On or off the pace, she should be tough. 4-HONOR HIS HALF and 2-LOST SUNSET could be fighting for the lead. Honor His Hald was claimed back from last after his connections lost him via claim in his previous start. Lost Sunset tends to tire but she races prominently in almost every start.

Pretty tough field for $10k claimers. 2-RIVER REDEMPTION might hold a slight edge simply because he’s has done so well on this course. He won three of his four local turf races while finishing third in the other. Fresh off a solid second-place finish in Indiana, he will be a top contender with the drop back into straight claimers. 1-WOODCOCK FLIGHT could be every bit as tough as top choice. He just missed in his first local start of the year, versus better, and held the lead through much of the stretch. If that race had been at today’s shorter distance, he would have won. He also drops which could make him extra tough. 6-CONI’S COUP has never shown a thing on turf but he is dropping to his lowest level ever and he races for the team of Block and Loveberry and that team has been winning at a 55% clip this year.

3-TEMPER TANTRUM probably isn’t a “lock” but he has won three of his last four, all while facing better. Has a great chance to run by them all late again. 1-SHADY MCGEE figures prominently. He’s been in decent form on dirt but turf has always been his preferred surface. This is likely the easiest field he ever faced on the lawn. Can mow them down. 2-JET FLIGHT didn’t show a thing in his lone turf race but he’s red hot right now and ripped off three straight victories.