Handicapper Tips & Picks

This stacks up as a solid MSW event with the juveniles in this field as five of the six have a start under their belt and all showing run in their own ways in each race.

#1 BIG D recorded a B OptixGRADE in their debut, a race over the turf however was entered back on 7/20 for the main track and late GATE scratch restless in the gate. On 8/3, they stayed on as a the BOS tracked by the winner, Biagoddess the lone runner in the field with experience making a CLOSE/B+ win.

That 8/3 event, a race a common race with two others: #1 GOGH one that should benefit from the experience/PREP. The rail draw might not be the most ideal however GREEN first out breaking SLOG made a WIDE MOVE ultimately should handle more ground when given that opportunity. #4 THIEVER also GREEN in running especially from the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and in running had TROUBLE as they jumped over and shied away from something inside. They appear to have come out of the race well working a half mile on 4/21 and mixing things up with a rider change.

The rider change has S. Gonzalez sticking with #3 BRIDGE CLASSIC coming out of the 7/20 event, a scratched down three horse field. BRIDGE CLASSIC was very fractious in the GATE, does hold a positive work since and by default had to RUSH stalked by the winner, Chi Town Prince finishing in a photo with the other L. Rivelli, Chief Morter.

Biagoddess, trained by L. Rivelli represented by a pair in here including another filly, #6 GOOD AND NAUGHTY a first start on this circuit though has been training at Hawthorne prior to the FP debut. The change in post could be appositive going off the 8/12 visuals with the TROUBLE_S and RUSH inside taking some KICKBACK- behind the pacesetting winner, Midnight Ms. #5 LAST MOON certainly has the first out trainer stats however does have some gaps in the works and outside of the recent half-mile 8/21 gate move, all other published moves at the 3f distance. 

The early pace should be contentious (Fire) though moderate pace suggesting horses that have some tactical speed can compete even under this dynamic. #3 NEW YEAR SURPRISE was B+/dominant at this condition $5k level back on 7/10 holding their own with the B- at the $12.5k level earlier this month, 8/10. Looking at the Plot they have enough tactical speed to track behind #2 FLYING SAMURAI and #4 BLURT and given the rail draw #1 CONTRABANDISTA (Q3 Surface/Distance) could be out looking to contest the lead here as well.

Sticking with the Plot, tough to dismiss the Large Square, #5 MCMONEY returning to the main track and slight 49-day freshening. Both factors could land them back in the right time and place, similar placement and timing with the 4/20 win and race they were claimed out of and stepped up in class after. Their held their own in the races given the placement all around and can be upgraded from the 7/10 trip racing TACTIC- (rider change here to journeyman A. Santos) racing X_WIDE with the NO_KEEP and NO_PUSH.

#6 ICE AXE also with Square on Standard (current form) from Q4 off-the-pace. They were asked to race closer to the pace on 8/7 and able to do from the inner post making a RUSH and the race shape Very Slow early and late. 

In terms of Class and Speed, there is not much between the two projected favorites, #1 LA REYNITA and #2 ACOUSTICAT. Looking at the Plot, both are capable of winning with their respective runstyle and trips.

#1 LA REYNITA will be tested to transfer their competitive races and Standard Plot form to the Surface/Distance though with just the lone two turn route MSW race back on 3/19 at the FG that race while a C raced at 60-1 and slight flow upgrade chasing a Fast early pace.

ACOUSTICAT finds a slightly lower race par here and numbers overall consistent to fit with today’s par and should have their best chance with those factors to clear the maiden conditions, however, does not project much price compensation.

#3 UNKEPT PROMISES can be upgraded from the 8/7 turf and common race. They had a legitimate TROUBLES+ taking significant contact at the break before making a RUSH Into a Very Fast early pace and was NO_PUSH through a Very Fast late pace. #6 ROARING VIXEN given a longshot look in that spot returning to the turf, something they find a change here back to the main track. Class is still a question mark on #4 TRIPLE MOON returning for a second start here. #5 CATNIP HILL also with the class test, steps up to the MSW level from the recent MCL events, events noted with an EX on 8/20 and rebounding on 8/14 both races a similar par to today’s event and slightly below on contender status. 

#2 RIETTA brings in consistent form and figures at the class, surface/distance to fit as a contender. They find a slight change with a lower par despite running under a similar conditions on 8/3. Not only a higher par on the day the outside post forced a WIDE RUSH, but often times also a tougher trip to overcome on this grass course. Stablemate #1 WEDNESDAY ADDAMS is lighter on figures though still lightly raced sophomore and overall one that likely has yet to run to her potential and racing will get her there.

#4 SURPRISE ME AGAIN like RIETTA is a legit contender for many of the same reasons and the class edge over #3 CHEVAL B and #6 MULSANNE stepping up in class/par. SURPRISE ME AGAIN brings in consistent form and figures from the common allowance races and the lower par here with the majority of the field IL-bred rivals. That includes #5 MADELYN ATTACK for the live connections picking up the upset win getting up over her stablemate back on 7/13 and reunites with S. Gonzalez following the 8/3 start racing as a 58.8-1 longshot LONE with NO_FINISH and NO_LINE.

The lone MTO #7 AUTISM COMPASSION moves up with that surface switch and should they draw in  with that change a major, major contender.  

The main contenders #4 FAITHFUL RULER and #8 RUSSIAN TO WIN look well-spotted taking the class drop in this spot. RUSSIAN TO WIN has held their form and figures fits ABOVE on Speed and Plot/pace while that massive upgrade ABOVE+ on Class. The drop is less of a concern in this case with the lack of Red/negative keywords and even in the pattern this season going back to a TROUBLE trip on 6/29 from the rail and another rail draw on 7/31. A rider change also suggesting positive intent with L. Colon aboard for the win closing out the 2024 campaign in October at FP.

FAITHFUL RULER also with some changes returning to the Hawthorne main track for the first time since last summer. The races here in 2024 all at a much higher allowance level and consistent figures that fit on par here. That includes the races this season; a flow upgrade while returning from the layoff with the front wraps back on 4/26 and their early speed should be on display right from the jump with J. Felix back aboard.

FAITHFUL RULER could be the “bos” though projects to find contention with other E/EP runstyle types in this field. #5 RISKY BOY one of those though is not a “need the lead” type and given the complexion of this field, post position change and current form cycle could look for a tracking trip and preferred to #9 SONNYISNOFUNNY given a similar Plot position/shape.

An honest early pace not only should suit RUSSIAN TO WIN off the Plot visuals, though could find a better scenario for #6 LINE TO GAIN wheeling right back from the 8/17 race when forced to RUSH taken out of their runstyle on the day and can assist here on fitness. The trip could also move up #3 CHAMPAGNE MIKE one that has struggled to find where they fit and a top effort to contend though took the front wraps off on 8/17 and could be a positive sign they are moving forward all around. 

#2 OCEAN POINTE checks the boxes as a contender with Speed and Class ABOVE for this level and the right runstyle ABOVE+ on Plot/pace. If just looking at running lines and finishing position “on paper” they might appear a horse “off form” since returning from the extended 504-day layoff; however following those races visually (OptixNOTES) shows a pair of WIDE trips against a higher class/par at TP and caried to strong number returning to the turf at KEE and near “excuse” with the TROUBLES+ on 5/25 at CD, their most recent start.

Their Plot position in Quad II, above the ParLine suggests the slight edge on trip over the other Squares (Q4) #7 LEADING THE CHARGE for C. Block and #6 EVEN THE WIND to consider.

That Square (stronger finishing ability proportionally to Circles in today’s conditions) flight tracking where the early pace contested with those Q1 runners: #1 ALL CHOKED UP and #3 GOLDEN BANDIT return as a X_FLOW upgrades from the 7/3 common race they exit and freshened from the 56-day break though could find similar right back in against each other here. #5 LAMPLIGHTER JACK also given an X_FLOW upgrade exiting their most recent start three weeks ago at ELP in a solid allowance event. They are not a “need the lead” type and could sit off that pair though their natural early speed playing a role in the Fire Contention and honest 54 SpeedRate. It is worth noting overall with those Q1 Circle runners all X_FLOW that playing a role in their shape here. 

The lower Snowflake Contention and SpeedRate should assist the trip for #1 GRAND ILLUSION with their early speed and a massive threat to take this field gate-to-wire. They could find themselves uncontested unless the tactical change (TACTIC-) comes into play for #4 SLAVA UKRAINI from their most recent starts looking for more assertive handling.

Trip/pace will be key with main contender #5 DANVILLE returning with the change in Class (ABOVE+) and competitive figures while ABOVE on Speed. Some intent should follow here, second off returning to the level they were claimed back on 7/20 with a rider change also in play. While Plot/pace is just AVERAGE- with the Plot position/shape here they can still find the right trip though perhaps some price compensation can be required with that noted; and similar for #2 GLOBAL EMPIRE while sitting ABOVE on Speed and Class keying off the B OptixGRADE at this level back on 7/31.

#3 SIXWILLBERICH has early speed and by default again could be tracking the pace, something that has carried them in their recent starts with the Slow early and Slow late race shapes. A similar Plot position and shape for #6 ALVIN one that should be longer odds not only of the two but overlooked overall and bring in current form with that subtle change in Plot position shape here sitting ABOVE+ as a value include. 

Starting the analysis with ML favorite and new face in #5 COOL LESTER SMOOTH brings in upside with the changes for this race and third career start. From their debut breaking SLOG and showing a sneaky CLOSE while also suggesting they can benefit from a STRETCH in distance and even some class weakness. They will find the change in distance and class returning from the 8/10 MSW event while making a positive PRERACE+ appearance despite being WARM and in running did not handing taking KICKBACK on the dirt racing COVER behind horses, things that can clearly change here.

The STRETCH in distance was projected for #1 BLACK RUSSIAN back on 7/17 and stepped up with the B- CLOSE on 8/10 behind their pacesetting stablemate winner, Money Agent on the day. That 8/10 common race with others in this field with #3 CASH APP MIKE also making a late SAVED MOVE recording a the same B- OptixGRADE despite the change in finishing position from the pair. A touch higher than the C+ from #8 SAN ANTON though to be fair and even with the rail draw was parked WIDE making an early (TACTIC-) MOVE and NO_FINISH as a result. L. Colon sticks with #6 CANTARITO one that chased NO_COVER behind the Very Fast early pace of Money Agent before NO_KEEP and based on physicality might appreciate ONE_TURN.

#7 KISS MY CHARMS brings upside from the two starts to date. They debuted over a good rated turf course, a tough task asked for the two turns as well and especially when factoring a WIDE trip. They went looking for grass right back for the second start and stayed in with the WEATHER impacted very poor track conditions on 7/24 and paired with another WIDE trip, overall should continue to hold fitness and should be sitting on a peak effort here. 

Babies kick off the day with a solid field. 2-BIG D looks the part and has ability. He was a bit active at the gate, resulting in a scratch before his initial dirt debut. With a race under his belt, I expect he shows more in here. 6-GOOD AND NAUGHTY raced at Fairmount first out and ran a decent race. I think he catches things a bit tougher here as he runs for a top barn. 1-GOGH draws the fence for his second start. He has some late run in his turf debut and the barn has had an exceptional meet.

A decent amount of pace for a short field in here. Went to 5-MCMONEY as he should be able to rate and run on late. He rallied on the dirt three back and has the back class. 6-ICE AXE has the ability to rate and rally too. He was a good second last out and should provide some value. 1-CONTRABANDISTA also could close late. His form in his last couple isn't great but he has numbers early in the year that are competitive with these.

Taking a bit of a price shot in here as 3-UNKEPT PROMISES shifts back to the main track. He has tactical speed in a race that is lacking pace and picks up Mojica in the saddle, who was aboard him in his race with his best figure. 6-ROARING VIXEN has been rather consistent, stalking the pace and running on late. I like his effort two back as he could also sit a bit closer early in here. 2-ACOUSTICAT ran some nice races at Oaklawn and his turf efforts were solid as well. My concern for him is the price will be short and there won't be a ton of pace to chase.

Turf runners in a race where there's a pair likely to take some action. 4-SUPRISE ME AGAIN has some tactical speed. She encountered some traffic trouble in her last before running on late. With the shorter field today, she should be able to work out a trip. 2-RIETTA has some speed as she should get a great trip. There's no knocks on her, aside from the potential of being a short price. 5-MADELYN ATTACK could be one to show some speed in here. She set the fractions in her last and hung around late at a huge price. She won't provide quite that value in here but can't be completely dismissed.

It's going to be very tough to beat 8-RUSSIAN TO WIN in here. He has tactical speed, back class, and has gotten a check in all but one race since being claimed eight starts back. He's likely to be claimed out of here, but should go out on a win. 9-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY has run some decent races at Hawthorne in the past and fits well at this distance. He also has some tactical speed and may provide a little value as well. 4-FAITHFUL RULER has speed as he will look to try to steal this race. The distance suits and he also gets some class relief.

Block runners could go 1-2 in here as 7-LEADING THE CHARGE and 6-EVEN THE WIND are both in with shots. The Indiana-bred Leading the Charge has only raced once at Hawthorne, running third over a yielding turf here last summer. He was a good second in Indiana last out and should get pace to chase. 6-EVEN THE WIND has some ability and should also benefit from a potential pace battle upfront. He just missed in his last but consistently closes late. 5-LAMPLIGHTER JACK just has to avoid a pace duel with All Choked Up. He stalked and pounced two back in a perfect effort but went way too fast early in his last and had nothing in the lane.

This could be a good rider's race as there's a couple who potentially could show speed but none committed to the front. Looking to 3-SIXWILLBERICH as he runs for the new connections today. He has tactical speed in a race lacking pace and should tuck in right behind Slava Ukraini early. 6-ALVIN will be hoping for some speed to close into as he should provide some value. He has shown a bit more in his last couple and could pick off some runners late. 2-GLOBAL EMPIRE disappointed a bit as the heavy favorite last out. He is still looking for his first win of the year but could string some races together pretty quickly.

Turf maidens to close out the day. 3-CASH APP MIKE has been at his best on the grass. He rallied late in his last and gets the mile distance again which should suit him well. 5-COOL LESTER SMOOTH stretches out today as he is bred to handle the two turns. With the added distance I expect he shows some speed as he will take action in here. 8-SAN ANTON ran OK in his last couple but could show some more. He made a middle move in his last and may be better in his third start since the layoff.

Lightly-raced or unraced babies to start the card, I’m going to go with 2-BIG D. He ran well enough to finish second in his career debut. That race took place on turf but he’s bred to handle any surface. Runners from his barn going from turf to dirt win about 26% of the time. 3-BRIDGE CLASSIC, another racing for the second time, sports higher speed figures than top choice. His lone race was on dirt and also finished second, overcoming trouble at the start. 5-LAST MOON has been training well for his career debut. His barn wins with 35% of their first timers, 32% with 2-year-olds and the barn often utilizes Mojica as pilot. Together that have been winning at a 30% clip.  

This race could be tougher than it looks at first glance. 3-NEW YEAR SUPRISE seems like the obvious choice. He crushed the field the last time he raced at this level and he came right back to finish a distant second, though well clear of the third-place finisher while meeting better. But his best efforts could be when he doesn’t have to fight too hard for the lead and there is plenty of other speed in here. Toss out the last couple races of 5-MCMONEY. Thet were contested on turf. Recently he’s been better on the main track. He’s been a good closer and there will be plenty of pace to set things up for him. 4-BLURT and 2-FLYING SAMURI could be fighting it out for the front end but if either gets loose early, he could be hard to catch.  

This does look like the right spot for 2-ACOUSTICAT. Her only money finishes to date have been on turf but she showed dirt ability on tougher circuits. She’s versatile and can either display good speed or display a good closing move. Can finally graduate. 1-LA REYNITA finished in the money in all four Hawthorne races. She finished a distant third as the favorite on turf in last but she had been closer in her prior local starts. She’s probably the best of the speed but she has faded late in her two-turn races. 4-TRIPLE MOON finished well back and only split the field in her debut but she got off to a terrible start and pretty much stayed in the same position throughout the race. But she worked well since and goes from turf to the main track, an often-winning move for this barn. Don’t ignore.  

The weatherman is calling for rain so just to be on the safe side, I’ll select 7-AUTISM COMPASSION. She’s entered for the main track only. She isn’t a lock by any means, if this race does get moved to the main track, but the rest of the fillies and mares in here are primarily turf runners. On turf, you would have to figure 2-RIETTA will be tough. She just never fired in last but she finished second, narrowly beaten, in her prior two races. 4-SUPRISE ME AGAIN finished a bit ahead of Rietta in last but a head behind that rival in their previous race. She closes well at times and the pace of this race promises to be brisk. 1-WEDNESDAY ADDAMS stretches out. She’s probably the quickest of these but she’ll have to carry her speed much farther today.  

8-RUSSIAN TO WIN drops in class. He’s been competitive against better so the size of the drop raises some questions but if he just runs the way he has been lately, he should romp against this field. 4-FAITHFUL RULER tends to run out of gas but he is quick and he probably has only one to beat to the lead. 5-RISKY BOY could be as quick as Faithful Ruler. Like that rival he tends to fade late but there’s always a chance he could hang on if he manages to secure an uncontested lead.  

7-LEADING THE CHARGE has been meeting some tough rivals. The last four winners he faced all came right back to win their next starts. This Indiana bred has had only one previous local start, a third-place finish here last year. He’ll be trying to run them down late. 1-ALL CHOKED UP is a threat to wire the field. He got caught up in a speed duel in last and tired a bit late but that was his first start of 2025. That race could be the perfect tightener he needed. 5-LAMPLIGHTER JACK was outgunned when he was sent to Ellis for his last start but that race was against better and featured an insane early pace for a race at the distance. However, he was a sharp stalking winner in his previous start here, racing for this trainer for the first time. The pace of this race will be brisk but not overwhelming. Guessing he’ll bounce back with a big effort. 

3-SIXWILLBERICH has been an incredibly consistent runner that simply doesn’t win often. He’s had eight races this year and finished in the money six times without winning. In his career, he’s had seven races at the distance and only won one, while finishing in the money another five times. But that could be about to change. He was claimed from last by a barn that wins with over 40% of their first-time claims. Maybe his luck is about to change. 2-GLOBAL EMPIRE, on the other hand visited the winner’s circle often before this year, despite usually racing over his head. He was claimed two starts back and finished third in last, his first start for this barn. He went off as the odds-on favorite in that race. Has a great chance to make amends. It is worth noting, however, that he raced with front wraps in last, something he hadn’t done in at least a year. 4-SLAVA UKRAINI is probably the best of the speed. He’s been taking on better lately and having little success but he did finish second the last time he ran at this level.  

Without having a clear idea of how this race will set up, I’m happy to defer to a Chris Block runner that is dropping in class. 5-COOL LESTER SMOOTH drops and stretches out. He appears to hold a substantial pace advantage over his rivals and he gets the right rider to utilize that speed. 3-CASH APP MIKE finished in the money in his last two turf races. Late runner should get plenty speed ahead of him. Could roll by. 8-SAN ANTON showed some ability in Ireland when he was younger and he ran well in his first US start but he hasn’t shown much since. But he is always eligible to wake up.