Handicapper Tips & Picks

Both #7 EMPRESS ELLIE and #8 SHE'S A JOKER have either won or recorded B efforts at today's condition/par and logical on that front. Both bring in current form and a runstyle to fit today's race shape. 

The S. Wilensky pair could bring intent and longer odds to consider. #10 DEA MATRONA recording a B- OptixGRADE at this level, slightly longer distance, on 8/1 finishing part of the BLANKET at the wire. The route/two turn distance lesser established for #6 DRUM ROLL though bringing a change in class and massive VF early/late flow upgrade wheeling back from the higher N1X condition just 13-days ago. 

Longshot and one of the few older horses in the field #1 LEAN MUSIC MACHINE projected to IMPROVE following the TACTIC- trip back on 7/20 at ELP and off that race showed up on this circuit up in class and on the turf just 9-days ago. That race might not have had them at their ideal placement and timing while the rail has been a hurdle in the past to overcome some intent does appear to follow with prior figures that fit on par. 

#5 PAARL has some hurdles coming back off the 195 day layoff with price compensation required though trips to upside from the three starts before the break. They debuted over this DMR turf sprint course and distance last fall with a legitimate EX - EXCUSE some self-inflicted with the VSLOG from the rail, though encountered in running TROUBLE+ still making a MOVE and CLOSE X_FLOW. Following that race they went long at the mile distance at SA projected SHORTER and again found TROUBLE+ closing out that series and just prior to the layoff in February. 

Simply #9 HARD TO FIGURE is not for me. They can certainly win though not the type of runner that is exciting in this type of spot with the shorter odds attached taking the drop off the layoff. Number and class wise they do not present as strong of an edge; especially when isolating the races this year and since the pattern of layoff lines. With the lack of an edge on numbers in terms of pace, again they fit, however looking at the Standard Plot (for current form) they sit in Q1 alignment with #1 MALIBU ROCKS (TACTIC- TRAFFIC TROUBLE on 7/24) and #8 MIGHTY KAI two runners at longer odds by comparison. 

The Plot ABOVE rating shifts to #5 SPUN NOT STIRRED a solid contender alternative. another with a change in class though a less concerning for a horse that was protected after a $32k MCL win and now is back to arguably the ideal conditions for their abilities. 

#3 SPRINT OUT PASS also has a look given the ship-and-win intent in play and some changes on class, surface/distance while also upside from the 7/18 turf trip from the first part of the meet and did not have their best chance to run their race on the day and to return to a top, this would be the time and place. 

#9 NO JOKE ANTARES recorded a B OptixGRADE on debut putting in a  strong CLOSE and GALLOP+. They returned for their second start opening week, the 7/19 sprint showing some run in spots though visually needing the STRETCH in distance they find here. The 7/19 race (a race that #3 FLASHY FRITZ also exits) had the look of a productive race and while not the case for all, there has been two next out winners. 

#11 MO HOLLAND DRIVE also projecting to STRETCH from the debut and found as much with B- and speed figure improvement on 8/3. They showed run after the SLOG making a WIDE MOVE in a strong race shape, Very Fast early/late - a common race with #5 DOING TIME (STRETCH from the 5/4 debut) and #8 BANDOLERO. 

The STRETCH in distance also a huge positive for both #1 THREE PUTT and #2 COLUMNIST however the pair take a rise in class from MCL to MSW as a further hurdle. 

#6 EL DIABLO ROJO has some 5.5f distance specialty to them and making that subtle change being an upgrade for this second start of the season. They have consistent Form (no red), Speed and Class, perhaps some price compensation required on Plot/pace with the off the pace Q4 Square runstyle. 

#10 JAIME'S COMMITMENT is a longshot willing to mess around with in here. They bring in form third off, a positive form cycle pattern for this horse/connections. While class is a potential weakness on their best day fit with numbers on par and another with shorter sprint distance success to support the "stab" at likely the longest odds in the bunch. 

#7 EGYPTIAN MAU earned a follow from their local debut back in January. They showed enough visually, showing run in spots to follow. While ideally (and sure the connection figure the same) to have come back quicker than the 218-days another layoff, however showing a set back gap in the works in February. The return work pattern is positive and consistent. M. Smith picking up the mount and has had some live mounts for N. Drysdale over the years including this year to suggest intent. 

#4 VIOLET STORM is a longshot to include with some upside under today's conditions. Since returning from the layoff they have improved number wise with each start. The STRETCH was projected back on 7/4 at LRC and moved up under similar conditions here on 8/6 recording a B- OptixGRADE also WARM on the day put in a WARM_UP and WIDE trip to hold fitness. The change in race shape also in play catching a Snowflake/29 compared to today's Fire/85 SpeedRate --  the identical dynamic when VIOLET STORM broke their maiden albeit on the turf. The race shape/pace is something to consider overall when handicapping this race with many E/EP types, horses that have performed best on or near the lead and should be kept honest with other some stretch out distance rivals.