Handicapper Tips & Picks

Two barns represented with two runners to start the analysis. L. Rivelli with a pair including the lone runner in the field with experience #1 AYE BAY BAY. She showed surface versatility in the debut last month working only a few days before and working a half mile back at Hawthorne following on 8/31. She was sold for $30k to suggest this change in claiming tag is not a severe drop for the second start even after coming up short as the favorite. The breeze video for #3 SPIRITED ANNE showed an individual also with a physical characteristic to handle the grass and also picked up for $20k appears reasonably placed. Debuting juveniles on the turf has not as higher percentage angle for this barn and in contrast to the numbers on the dirt – the first time starting percentage shown on the past performances.

H. Robertson brings in the IL-bred pair of #2 ALLISON ROAD and #6 MOLLY THE CAT. The pair show longer series works and running for the higher $35k allowance claiming tag. Fitness should not be an issue given the series and paddock visuals helpful to assess further race readiness and class to separate the pair. The barn has a limited sample of Hawthorne debut runners on the turf with four starts including a win and place finish. The lone runner to race off the board was the only juvenile in the sample and none of the four were statebred.

In terms of trainer “stats” this angle of FTS is not higher percentage or a big sample for #4 LOLITA J (E. Lopez) and/or #5 LILAS OAK TREE (J. Campbell) both barns capable in their own right and with the right horse. 

Similar to Race 1, H. Robertson represented with a pair. #2 SHAMEN SEZ fits logically off their N2 races this season under similar conditions, often slightly higher par, paired with overall consistency. They return from a two month break and might benefit from the time away and after the series of back-to-back races just weeks apart. Stablemate #5 GABE’S CHOICE steps up against winners and first time for a tag. They showed run on debut and projecting to IMPROVE did just that with the statebred MSW win on 6/5. They were entered to take on winners and in claiming company back on 7/27 scratching that day and encouraging pair of August half mile drills into this race.

#3 BYWORD brings in a positive “every other” form cycle pattern to suggest they will step up and run their race here. While they have that on their side, they still must address the unknown with the distance change cutting back to a sprint and first time at the one turn distance.

A slight freshening comes into play for #1 MINIMO and perhaps that is what they need to return to their top form and could be a positive sign with the front wrap removal, something to look for in the paddock. Their top form does not hold any strong edge in this group, though still overall on par. 

#3 UNCAPTURED PULSE is interesting in this spot and on the main track, a definite fit on this race with the established local form. Moving back to the turf is for the first time in a long time, their two starts on the grass were early in their sophomore campaign at GP and had some layoffs splitting those two starts to hold the surface alone against them. They have some surface versatility (though not a fan of KICKBACK) whether it is different main track or synth with consistent numbers since and competitive when in the right spot for their abilities. That includes the races this season, the pair of wins back in May/June and forward progression since restarting their form cycle from the 7/17 race and now third off.

This race on the turf and complexion of the field, there should be pace for both #1 MAHONEY ROAD and #2 ZOOMBIE with their runstyle.

MAHONEY ROAD has shown early speed at times though often at the route distance (such as 8/24) though not the same early foot sprinting and tends to track before making their MOVE.

The gate issues and pattern of SLOG has recently impacted the trips and runstyle for ZOOMBIE. They once upon a time had gate speed and known for front running ways. They make a barn change, and slight distance change perhaps that shows a little more early speed all around. Still an assertive hand is necessary and works when making a RUSH and slight SETUP win on 7/14 as the heavy chalk had trouble/trip adversity. 

As pace makes the race, it should flatter J. Wakins in this spot represented by a pair of contenders. #3 HIALEAH HOTTIE when looking at the Plot could be the BOS and the one to catch on the front end. It appears the only runner that can keep pace with her is #5 LOST SUNSET and as both above the ParLine as Circles, a tiring battle up front should assist #6 A REAL HERO with first run.

Looking at the Plot, A REAL HERO is sitting in the trip tracking behind that Q1 first flight and positioned to take first run of the off the pace. The 5.5f distance should still be respected and the distance can be tough to overcome on the win end if left with too much to do. #1 HEAVENLY HASH brings in a similar Plot position and shape to A REAL HERO and with the rail might be tracking just inside of that rival and looking for a similar tracking trip at the least along for a share at longer odds.

Off the recent finishing positions, #1 UNION DOLLY could get overlooked in this field. She has some questions marks with the distance change (along with the recent outcomes) that require some price compensation while otherwise a fit. Number wise she has been consistent this season and while she has come up short at this condition in the pair of August starts, those two turn races held a higher par. Some “trip” excuses could also factor, running NO_COVER X_FLOW on the 8/7 start and wheeling back on 8/24 made a WIDE RUSH before losing ground, a trip tough to overcome especially when paired with a noted Fire Contention & higher 46 SpeedRate and finds a change in dynamic here.

Cutting back to a sprint, UNION DOLLY holds buried form that shows up when looking at OptixPLOT positioned as a Q2 Square above the ParLine while Standard (current form) could have her showing early speed as well. Keeping with the Plot theme,  #9 MORE THAN A DIVA projects to set the pace and from the outside draw should be assertive under I. Hernandez right from the break.

The stalking pair #2 FROSTED ÉCLAIR and #8 APRIL’S GEM are not discounted, perhaps land in that “obvious” with the public given the recent running lines and finishing positions. #6 LONG TALL WOMAN also could get similar attention following their sprint form earlier this season including the two back win on 7/24 with the same form cycle pattern. She had a similar runstyle to #3 CHROME ATTACK one that must come with an improved 2025 effort though could make this as the time and place turnaround.

Number wise #4 HARPER BRIANA is on the lighter side despite the recent finishing position. She brings in a solid late kick (Q4 Square) to run on late though noted a tougher dynamic for that runstyle with the 17 SpeedRate. 

Class wise this is a lateral move for #1 RED MOSCATO and should hold value returning rom the distance 5^th place outcome two weeks ago. Following their “every other” pattern they can rebound here and appears intent to do so with Reyes back aboard and with the higher purse they are shooting for.

RED MOSCATO is the only runner in this field with the designated ABOVE+ on Plot/Pace to upgrade here and further support the value case. Looking at the Plot it is just a subtle shift to rival #7 VERRAZANOINTHESKY another in-form game race shores the outside draw should assist on trip when tracking the first flight.

That first flight (Q1) are all individual contenders though a scenario where they must battle each other: Number wise #3 R U JOKING and #4 TAKEITAWAY (Class ABOVE) have the higher figures compared to #5 THREE AFLEET though would not discount there as a lightly raced type that has run faster in each start and could continue that progression here.

Trip could be tougher on #2 EL MUCHO and #6 DASH TO THE CASH, another set of individuals that would be no surprise to win this race as they have efforts that fit and intent on their side though has that Plot/Pace main hurdle to clear. 

#7 PAST TENSE brings in current form for the new barn (same owner) with the change in circuit and fits today’s conditions. There could be intent running on this circuit and in allowance company while remaining protected. Their runstyle can work a trip in today’s dynamic as a Q3 Square when paired with the light/vacant Q1 Snowflake.

On the front end, #1 MY BUDDY BROOKS should look to take advantage of that scenario and with the rail, returning a more assertive ride than the trip three weeks ago on 8/14 and closer to the game effort to hold in the BLANKET finish win on 7/13. #2 YAMILE’S could keep her honest, while not a “need the lead” type she brings tactical speed from the sprint races and while not a front runner necessarily in the limited two turn starts, those races with Very Fast early race shape suggest (along with Plot position) she can be forward here if allowed.

The M. Boyce pair will be tested with today’s conditions neither would be a surprise through still require the right price to place and there is a scenario where they are potentially favored. That could depend on the action for #5 MISS RIVER RAT rebounding from the 7/14 EX – EXCUSE at HS Indy to a new top effort B+ and speed figure with the won on 8/7. A repeat makes them a prime contender though pairing a top would be something new for them.

On the Plot, #6 GOOD AMERICAN has a look in her. With that said, there are questions to say the least with the 335-day layoff and new connections coming back today. The local works suggest intent for Hawthorne, however, does not have the most consistent published series with some gaps since April. 

#4 RAMESSES brings in form both on the turf and main track should that come into play this afternoon. They follow and every other pattern and upside since the claim. The TACTIC- trip on the turf was not ideal back on 7/6 and despite the running line and finishing position still recorded a competitive B- OptixGRADE. The effort on 8/9 can be upgraded given the dynamic making an early RUSH dropping back due to KICKBACK then after the Very Slow early pace made a NO_PUSH sneaky CLOSE into a Slow late pace.

#5 PROFESSOR HIGGINS also has surface versatility if necessary and is another that has been compromised with “trips” this season. While that does tend to be their habit and price compensation necessary, the efforts all around fit right back in here. They need a clean run with racing luck though should be the time and place – second off and from the 8/17 B- effort making a MOVE WIDE for show and a lower SpeedRate than today’s potential to upgrade on that subtle race shape change as well.  

Under a similar Snowflake scenario to earlier on the card with a light Q1, the Plot position and shape for both #7 I O FEDRO and #8 WOLF HUNTER present a positive dynamic for their runstyle. They can provide an alternative to #2 MOONRISE DRIVE one that could vie for favoritism. 

1-AYE BAY BAY was well regarded in debut, bet down to 6-5. She didn't show a ton in that spot but can wake up on the grass. 5-LILAS OAK TREE has worked well coming into here. I could see some speed from her early. 6-MOLLY THE CAT has a consistent pattern. The outside draw may be beneficial leading into this race.

5-GABE'S CHOICE isn't asked to do too much off a maiden score in his last. He is in for the $7,500 IL-tag which shows some intent. 2-SHAMAN SEZ could show some speed in here. He's been right there in his last four and should be close once again. 1-MINIMO needs some pace to chase. He can close last but often runs on a bit too late.

2-ZOOMBIE drops a notch as he looks for the win. He has tactical speed and should get pace to chase. 7-NAGY AND DA BEARS used to be solely speed but has learned a bit to rate and run on late. He poses a price threat. 5-NEON DEION is one with speed. I expect he goes early and tries to beat the rest to the top.

Watkins could go 1-2 in here. 6-A REAL HERO has speed to rate close and has been solid over this Hawthorne strip. 3-HIALEAH HOTTIE likely sends for the top. She was game in her last and provide some value. 5-LOST SUNSET also has speed. She may send as well as her best races come when she's on the lead.

2-FROSTED ECLAIR is another live Watkins runner who has been strong on the grass. She should stalk and pounce in the lane. 1-UNION DOLLY turns back in distance as she figures in here. Look for her to settle early and run on late. 9-MORE THAN A DIVA was a solid winner in her last. She comes off the layoff into this spot but has the potential to clear from the outside.

5-THREE AFLEET has turned things around in his last couple. He has speed and could clear and never look back. 4-TAKEITAWAY has ability and runs for a barn that has had a solid meet. Look for him to stalk early and run on late. 2-EL MUCHO will be hoping for a pace battle upfront. He figures to sit back early and rally in the lane.

This was by far the hardest race I had on the card to make a line on. Every horse in here could win as they are so evenly matched. Went to the speed of 1-MY BUDDY BROOKS as she figures to try to clear from the rail and steal this race. She won at the mile distance two back and has been a different horse on turf. 5-MISS RIVER RAT will need some pace to chase as she will be rallying late. She ran a big race in her last and figures on the rise in class. 4-BUTTONS AND LACE is one of two in here for Boyce, each in with a shot. She was a strong winner in her last and also will need some pace to close into.

Another excellent field from a wagering standpoint for the finale. 6-LONE RETURN may be overlooked as he has ability and finds a good spot. He may be able to rate a bit closer early here and could rally at a price. 7-I O FEDRO gets back to the turf, which is the key for him. He will likely get a stalking trip and should be able to pounce in the lane. 5-PROFSSOR HIGGINS will  need some speed to close into. He has found the board in 7 of 12 grass starts and gets Loveberry back in the saddle.

1-AYE BAY BAY is far from a strong choice but she has had a race which should be to her benefit. Has a decent turf pedigree and top-notch connections. 6-MOLLY THE CAT seems to have slightly better drills than her stablemate. Both are making their debut but this filly might be slightly better prepared. 3-SPIRITED ANNE, the other Rivelli-trained runner, has been training well.  

2-SHAMEN SEZ seems most likely. He has pretty good speed and he finished in the money in his last four starts while facing rivals similar to these. 5-GABE'S CHOICE meets winners for the first time. He broke his maiden versus Illinois maiden specials in his last start and has been training steadily since that June race. Starting at this level is surprising. Wouldn’t be surprised if he scratched. 3-BYWORD drops and turns back in distance. His speed figures suggest that he’s finally at the right level and will be competitive against this group. 

8-XPRESSIR is entered for the main track only and figures to be tough if this race does come off the grass. He’s meeting plenty of others with some degree of speed but think he’ll put them away and have plenty left for the race down the lane. 2-ZOOMBIE seems like the on the lawn. He’s been running well against better since getting claimed earlier in the year. His two dirt races were dull so really doesn’t expect him to run if this race gets moved to the main track but one never knows. 1-MAHONEY ROAD never won at the distance on the weeds but he finished in the money all four times and he sports some of the highest speed figures at the distance. 5-NEON DEION fits well on either surface. He might not be as quick as top choice but he’ll never be too far back. 7-NAGY AND THE BEARS takes a much-needed class drop while moving to a different barn. He’s been splitting better fields. Can awaken against these.  

Don't know how long she’ll last on the lead but think 5-LOST SUNSET will be the one setting the early fractions. She never recovered after a poor start in last but if she gets away cleanly today, she has a chance to lead throughout. 6-A REAL HERO doesn’t possess a big closing move but she is capable of wearing down her rivals. If top choice does face a lot of early pressure, this mildly closing mare could take advantage. 3-HIALEAH HOTTIE is another with good zip. Stablemate of A Real Hero could ensure a contested early pace setting things up for her teammate.

9-MORE THAN A DIVA doesn’t seem to hold a huge speed advantage but she once again looks the quickest of these. She used good speed to wire the field in last on the turf but she’s also been plenty quick on dirt, in case this race gets moves to the main track. 1-UNION DOLLY has been competing in longer races but the turn back in distance could be just what the doctor ordered. She’s been tiring in those longer races but she’s two for two at this distance, scoring her last win at Saratoga in July last year. 2-FROSTED ECLAIR is capable on either surface but think she’s better on turf at this point in her career. She was beaten here as the even money favorite in last. She’ll be tracking the pace today. Could surge late to make amends.

Maybe this will finally be the right spot for 6-DASH FOR THE CASH. He needs more distance to be truly effective but like the way he was running late in last, his first start of the year. The pace of this race should certainly be quick enough. Maybe he’ll get to run them down. 5-THREE AFLEET fought hard in last, his first start against winners but the victor of that race was just a little too tough. But the seasoning this runner received should prove to be beneficial. He looks like the best, but not only, speed in the field. He’s going to have to fight for the lead but this time he could persevere. 7-VERRAZANOINTHESKY is another likely to come on late. This will be the first time he meets state breds on the dirt in over a year. He’s been in pretty good form anyway but could take it up a notch versus Illinois breds.

4-BUTTONS AND LACE is lightly raced compared to the rest of the field but she has shown pretty dramatic improvement with each passing start. She broke her maiden in her turf debut, just missed as a fast-closing fourth in her next start, and won her last going away. There should be sufficient early pace to set up for her late move. Can make it two in a row. 3-R KATIEBUG, stablemate of top choice, could be the one to beat. She’s flexible enough to race on or off the pace and on or off the lawn. She never won at the distance but did finish in the money in five of eight. 2-YAMILE’S is another capable of racing well on grass or dirt. She’s been in pretty good form this year, finishing in the money in all but her stakes attempts. Also, like that she’s tractable enough to race on or off the lead, however the pace dictates. 

This race is slated for turf but I’m expecting few defections if it gets moved to dirt. 9-KINGSBURRY ATTACK is one that seems unlikely to hang around if this race does get switched to dirt. He’s had 30 starts so far and only the one win to show for it but I thought his last race, his first of the year, showed some potential, especially since he finished third in what turned out to be a “key” race. He’s going to be a longshot once again, and might deserve it, but he could also be poised to surprise. There will be plenty of speed in here if this race comes off the grass but, if it stays on, 8-WOLF HUNTER might get the lead to himself. He’s another with 30 starts and only the one win but he also seems sharper than ever. 5-PROFESSOR HIGGINS drops once more. Maybe this drop will do the trick for this late runner.