Handicapper Tips & Picks

Looking for an alternative to the favorites: #2 LIGHT DRAGOON has struggled through the long layoffs though finds a significant drop for today's event and figures/class to fit with that change. The numbers from the juvenile season fit on par with today's race while also projecting STRETCH and DROP at the time. In terms of the return race, the 8/2 video unavailable though has been productive for the limited runners that have come back from that race. 

#11 CULLEN J brings upside for this second start of the form cycle and finding a rider change following the TACTIC- on 8/14. 

#10 MIDNITE MUSKET appeared intent for this circuit both running against statebred for the first time in their career while also ship-and-win eligible. With all good intention racing luck not so much with legitimate TROUBLE+ in running and overall EX- EXCUSE given on the day. Trip will be key especially with the outside post for a horse that has shown tactical speed, though with many other front runners could rely on a stalking trip and despite the 8/14 running line and finishing position passed horses and continued to GALLOP+

#6 COUNTERBALANCE showed run on debut recording a B- OptixGRADE making a CLOSE and GALLOP+ in their debut during the first part of the meet. They should benefit from that experience (PREP) and today's STRETCH in distance.

Both #11 HYPERGAMY and #12 MISS QUEUE can be upgraded should they find some racing luck to draw in off the AE. While HYPERGAMY more "obvious" with the outcome in the 8/2 common race both should appreciate the start and key STRETCH out in distance here. #2 RADIANT VIEW in the main body of the field from the 8/2 common race made a positive PRERACE+ appearance then broke SLOG raced in TRAFFIC making a MOVE X_FLOW. The trip arguably cost them a better position and noted despite the change in outcome recorded the same B- OptixGRADE as place rival, HYPERGAMY. 

#3 DARE TO BE KING finds considerable class relief, placed properly to compete while in a positive form cycle pattern. The connections ran above condition at the N3 back on 8/23 a race on a one week turnaround raced WARM And WIDE on the day. They were compromised with the TACTIC X_FLOW (VS/Very Slow early/late) on 8/15 and the most reasoned spot of the four starts this season. As far as the surface switch, the Tapeta numbers they recorded back in the 4yo campaign fit on par here and those maiden events all a higher par than today's race. 

While #1 COUNTRY LIVING could get the job done as the projected favorite, their M. Drexler stablemate #7 SECRET THREAT holds the class edge of the duo. While more could have been expected out of SECRET THREAT when the made the change in class to this level on 7/31, however form cycle was less than their ideal. They tend to need more time between starts to run a top effort and noted the positive 36-days here and time from the layoff on 5/4 as well as 42 days into the 7/6 race both efforts the higher numbers recorded this season, and figures sitting on par. 

The change in class makes sense for #4 LITTLE RED DOMI, an obvious change that should be picked up by the public and likely shorter than the 8-1 ML suggests. LITTLE RED DOMI broke their maiden B+/dominantly at a #25k MCO level and warranted and reward with the step up in class and pairing wins last season. The class weakness came into play for the recent stakes though presents upside from the return allowance on 5/25 with subtle TROUBLE- NO_PUSH; a mildly productive race with a higher par than today's event.