Handicapper Tips & Picks

In terms of assessing the favorite/s, both #4 MEDORO and #7 GIMME A NOTHER fit logically in their role and no knocks coming into this race. Trying to mix in a price for playability #1 MAHINA is weaker on Class however brings in surface/distance efficiency and form second off while upgraded from the Yellow Ribbon (G2) last month making a CLOSE against the Very Slow early and Slow late dynamic. 

#2 BUT SERIOUSLY was not physically suited to the shorter 5.5f distance of their debut last month and finds the STRETCH showing up in this course with upside from the SLOG WIDE NO_PUSH trip. Trainer V. Oliver already holding a win this meet and since 2019 finishing 25% ITM overall and has been live with J. Rosario aboard and the 6.5f distance four starts with three place finishes and a show - 100% ITM. 

#7 DUVET DAY appears the value of the race, a contender in her own right and number should hold (and required, as always) as trainer M. McCarthy still looking for their first (at the time of this analysis) KYD win. DUVET DAY fits on Class and Speed on par with stamina and course experience. She also brings in current form and upside from the Beverly D (G2) dynamic making a CLOSE X_FLOW. Runstyle is tougher to assess with this course, field size and distance though with that said there are no major red flags with Pace and if anything noted ABOVE for Plot. 

#9 POINT LYNAS has been "pointed" to this race looking for the firm turf and mile distance as noted by the connections and should be sitting on a peak effort. He was game on the lead SPACED and LONE on 7/12 in Group 2 company at Ascot holding his ground to Never So Brave, a horse that came right back with a Group 1 win at York on 8/23. 

#1 NAMARON looks race ready as every training out at DMR and fit with the recent move over the dirt from the gate while under wraps and MTB over their workmate. J. Sadler has been selective sending out runners to KYD with four runners since 2019 with a solid (4-1-0-2) record and the other off the board was competitive B-/5th place outcome.

Willing to give #5 STRONG another look at the route distance and MSW class. They earned a follow from the first two starts sprinting at CD and progressive figures in those races. Perhaps they were just talking about practice on 8/4 first route from a slight 45-day freshening at EP making a RUSH from the rail/SAVED and NO_PUSH after losing ground - and lucky no clout chasing posters caught the trip and cried out as there was nothing nefarious in the ride, just sometimes its lack of intent or just jockeys gonna jockey. J. Graham sticks aboard and with intent for this meet as they were entered together under similar conditions on 9/4 unable to draw in off the AE. 

#3 WOODGLEN COURT is worth another look back at longer odds. They projected to move up with the STRETCH out in distance and not quite giving up on that as they return to the main track and more time between starts. The two week turnaround second off the layoff might not have been ideal on 8/1 and the race shape also notable with the Very Fast early and Fast late race shape. Should also credit #5 HAPU EKATI as X_FLOW upgrade from the turf start two weeks ago though still must step up especially in the Speed (Below) department. 

#6 SHINIGAMI is logical though reason to have some reservations given the overall race record though noted class edge over many including the three ML assigned favorites (#1 RHUMBABA, #2 LET'S GO LIAM and #7 ARMINO) something that would not be a surprise for the public to correct as they have many times this season as the ML has consistently been faulty with predicting the public tendencies this season. 

#6 FIRECRACKER FIONA recorded a B OptixGRADE at this level returning from the layoff on 5/24 and following that tough beat place finish was stepped up in class. They held their own with the show finish on the turf in June and even with the TRAFFIC trip wheeling back in July. This spot and freshening should allow them their best chance to return to contender ways. 

#1 SARATOGA HOLIDAY races first time for a tag to suggest intent by the connections with that change as well as this subtle third start of the cycle should be sitting on a peak effort.