Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starting the analysis with the L. Rivelli pair: #1 BIAGODDESS has shown progression race-to-race on visuals and outcome though will be tested to take those efforts to the next level on the speed figure department here; #3 TIZ CHINA recorded the higher figure in the debut place effort and showing class with the maiden win and experience in 8/17 start giving her a look with that foundation and intent wheeling back against winners just three weeks apart once again.

#2 TUM TAP returns from a near two month freshening (56-days) to take on winners. They showed run on debut behind their well-intended stablemate winner, Kickin, validating the effort to find their own win on 7/10. Making an EASY_LEAD that day things could change here not only with the L. Rivelli pair but also including #5 MIDNIGHT MS one that was in a HARD_LEAD and LONE after acting restless in the GATE for their front running FP debut win last month.

#5 THEN NOW ‘N ALWAYS takes on winners as a maiden here and that hurdle to clear though to her credit showed run (B-) while racing GREEN and making a MOVE after the SLOG/TROUBLE_S one that should benefit from racing (PREP) and added ground/STRETCH going forward. 

#4 WILD DREAMS wheels right back looking for redemption after a legitimate EX – EXCUSE on 8/17. The trip was compromised at the GATE fractious in and broke in a tangle/TROUBLES+ with contact on her way out. WILD DREAMS was passively ridden and taken out of her normal front running runstyle – one she looks to hold a forward pace advantage with today shown as a clear Q1 Square the only horse above the ParLine. With that early speed the next flight of #1 TOUR DE’ PORT, #2 WAVE OF MEMORIES and #3 ILLY SIMZ could all be in chase mode.

In terms of ILLY SIMZ she had an EX – EXCUSE in her own right back on 7/13 and not quite an “excuse” on 8/3 though adversity with TROUBLE following a RUSH and NO_PUSH after the NO_KEEP (and NO_LEAD) late. The extended sprint distance should be respected here and where TOUR DE’ PORT does not hold any other strong edge she might be the best suited from the mentioned group to tackle the 6.5f sprint here.

Stamina and change in class could be the key for #5 LA MULA UNO one that has not shown much outside of the pattern of SLOG TROUBLE_S in the two races to date. Things change here significantly with the class drop, one turn distance and post nothing the outer draw in both race, both races with that higher par and should have her best chance to step up in with today’s group. 

#1 SPICY ITALIAN has struggled as of late to string races together and given the 24-day turnaround here figures a positive change. She does not hold any strong Class or Speed edge (AVERAGE+) though has some level of consistency throughout her days on the track and the rail draw in this case can assist on trip. That can be upgraded with today’s Surface/Distance an overlap with projected favorite #2 OH MACARENA with SPICY ITALIAN presenting value as the higher odds of that pair.

#5 DEAL’EM AND WEEP will also look to turn the tables on OH MACARENA returning from the 8/14 common race. In terms of form cycle, DEAL’EM AND WEEP was coming off a peak effort with the B+ win back in July and perhaps timing less than ideal along with the WARM_UP noted and OH MACARENA getting the right first run inside/SAVED tracking trip with the track profile/BIAS. 

Started to see a positive form cycle pattern with #1 ROSE’S WISE despite the change in class dropping down while taking on winners. The shorter 5.5f sprint distance paired with the rail and TACTIC- on 8/17 behind first run winner, Two Timer. Today’s SpeedRate slightly higher to track the Q1 flight and the extra half furlong of ground in their favor.

The same slight change in distance comes back into play for #7 KIND KISMET returning to Hawthorne for a belated second start this season. Their first go around was back on 5/11 coming off the 234-day layoff, shipping to CBY after and running in higher par events to suggest if there is a time and place to return to contender ways, this allows their best chance.

As far as early speed/pace, both #4 SHARP ATTACK and #5 RUMBRANDT project to take up that role. While SHARP ATTACK can be upgrade with the change in class, since taking on winners in the two August starts, RUMBRANDT can be given a flow upgrade – part of the Fast early pace in the 8/17 race.

A contentious early pace could assist their M. Slager stablemate #2 LIL CARRIE D one that will be tested to run back to her faster races from the past and step up from the recorded figures this season.  Similar hurdle on numbers for #6 JOYZELLA though to her credit has shown some number progression this season and less than ideal TACTIC- in the 8/17 common race with the 5.5f distance shorter than their ideal as well. 

The Sun Contention paired with the higher 58 SpeedRate requires finishing ability to upgrade the “Squares” in this field. #1 HARD TO FATHOM with the rail draw should save ground behind the first flight and projected pacesetters in #2 CODE NAME and #3 MAN ON ATTACK to sit first run. The change in class is closer to a lateral move and even the subtle change in distance to a flat mile, could be a further key and establishing first run.

That first run likely key and key for where prior rider S. Gonzalez with #6 HAWKS CREEK – a legit contender. They find the change in class and running for a tag for the first time this season. The most is less concerning after picked up last season for $30k and has been entered twice under similar claiming conditions since the 7/3 allowance however scratched both times with those events taken off the turf.

Their stablemate #4 SHARP STICK also can show early speed and perhaps takes up that role. Though at the same time, they are worth keeping in the mix at higher odds. They have been given a 35-day freshening since the 8/3 start, a race with a similar par and in the past SHARP STICK has been competitive under similar conditions especially in the local two turn turf starts.

#5 KING OF THE PALACE fits overall though has some question marks returning from the long layoff while also running first time for a claiming tag. While they did break their maiden off the layoff last July, number wise it was not one of their higher figures and improved in that speed department with racing after that start – a similar pattern when starting off their career as a juvenile into the sophomore season. 

#5 CANTARITO moves up as the “new face” at this level. In addition to the change in class, the return to the ONE_TURN distance appears a positive for this individual based on their physicality. They can be upside keying off the sprint back in June; a first start following a 225-day break which was run under poor WEATHER impacted track conditions. To their credit, they recorded a B- OptixGRADE with adversity from the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) with the rail draw and shorter 5.5f sprint distance.

#7 MARK MY MEMORY also finds a change in class and distance while also making a belated return to Hawthorne. They wheel right back in a week and slight flow-upgrade as part of the Fast early pace on 8/30 at CBY. WARM on the day and perhaps not their ideal distance while also racing off Lasix that day as well could have factored in outcome and visuals.

As far as the local group, #3 RUMBLING brings in the most consistent and competitive form for the races at this level. With that said, they have come up short on the win end or a winning effort without much in terms of excuse though could find the right group today.

The R. Rosas barn also represented by #1 KUZ I CAN MAN one that debuted under similar conditions to today’s race back on 7/6 and not quite as race ready running GREEN and missing the break/VSLOG while racing as the only FTS in that race. #2 BODADDY was also very GREEN in their 7/27 debut with their race over at the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and also noting the track conditions impacted by earlier WEATHER playing favorably towards horses forwardly placed and many on the day not handling kickback. 

#1 TAUNTING ran a “winning” race with the B OptixGRADE recorded a this level on 8/7. They made a positive PRERACE+ appearance despite getting a little WARN and in running had to start-and-stop making a RUSH for position getting SHUFFLE and late MOVE into a VS/Very Slow early pace to finish together at the wire with pacesetting winner, Journey.

#2 IRIS’S DREAM also recorded a competitive race at this level on the circuit last September in a race with a higher par than today’s event and slightly higher par then the 8/7 race to upgrade their B- OptixGRADE on the day landing here. While they will again give up recency returning from the long layoff, number wise the all around consistency makes them a fit and returning from a mildly productive event back in March at GP.

In today’s race shape, TAUNTING holds tactical speed and likely to track behind #4 TIME MUSE one that will be tested more so on Class than trip/Plot in this race shape. Class, paired with value is the prime knock on #5 BETTERA as a prime contender. Number wise BETTERA has run “faster” in their allowance races compared to #3 CANYON STREAK while both pairing B- OptixGRADES. 

From the group with experience #8 ZEE holds a strong edge and near 10+ Speed figure advantage over those other rivals coming out of the 8/17 common race and even with #7 GOOD AND NAUGHTY stepping up on this circuit from the FP debut. ZEE should benefit from the racing experience and change in post nothing the TROUBLE_S and RUSH while making an inside/SAVED MOVE for place behind pacesetting chalk winner, Tiz China with ZEE closing the gap on them at the wire.

FTS #5 MOTOWN SOUND worked an efficient 21.3 back in the June same and has consistently since. They bring in a positive, progressive series in terms of distance with mix of both speed and stamina to come out race ready. This will be just the third runner this season for trainer D. Poulos – both Baladine and Professor Higgins (picking up the win on 9/4) have run consistent all meet. In terms of the FTS category, this is not an area the barn has mess around with much in the last five years, though a deeper look back has shown success to suggest capable here in this category.

#6 DREAM EAGLE also appears well-prepared for this debut. They bring in a progressive published series in terms of speed and stamina picking up a live rider for this barn in I. Hernandez – a pairing that has had success this season while often showing early speed in those runners as well.

The board could be a tell for #4 TIA LUPE as the E. Lopez barn is capable with FTS and appeared live taking strong wagering support on Thursday with a debut runner, one that was an unfortunate late scratch. #9 DIFFICULT DECISION worked 10.1 back in April. The work tab is light even for M. Perez; the debuting runners often show up with limited and shorter distance published works. 

2-TUM TAP ran a big race in her second start out. She has speed and may clear and never look back. 4-MIDNIGHT MS ran well in her debut. She's in for the $100k tag today as she looks to compete and keep the allowance condition. 3-TIZ CHINA could stalk and pounce. Her second start out was a good win as she could get the right trip.

Pace make the race as 4-WILD DREAMS could clear and never look back. 1-TOUR DE'PORT has the ability to stalk and pounce. The 0 for 17 record makes it tough to put her on top. 3-ILLY SIMZ could also show speed. She chased and tired in her last but comes in off a good work.

Decent amount of pace in the race. 5-DEAL'EM AND WEEP should be able to tuck in the second flight early and rally into the lane. 2-OH MACARENA showed speed and battled to a win last out. Look for her to rate close again but she may have company. 1-SPICY ITALIAN will contend if the pace is contested ahead of her. Let's see how many she picks off in the lane.

The rider change could be the key for 4-SHARP ATTACK. She drops in class and looks to be sitting on a win. 3-NIGHT BLUE (IRE) has been on the grass in recent starts. She was a good winner in her last and drops to the bottom with the shift to dirt. 7-KIND KISMET comes off Lasix for today's race. She has tactical speed as her starts two and three back make her a contender.

3-MAN ON ATTACK ran a huge race against stakes runners in his last. Look for him to rate and run on late in here. 5-KING OF THE PALACE makes his first start of the year. He's working well toward the return and has solid past turf form. 6-HAWKS CREEK has raced with mixed results on the turf. The drop in class could be what puts him over the top.

3-RUMBLING has to get the job done in here. He has enough speed to contend early and should be clear late. 6-GRAY MIKE finds the easiest spot of his career. He won't show much speed early but should run on in the lane. 7-MARK MY MEMORY also has some speed. He could be quick enough to make the top and try to steal this one.

5-BETTERA should be in a good stalking spot. He ran well on the grass in his last and comes in fresh today. 3-CANYON STREAK will need some pace to chase. He should come charging late and may provide some value. 2-IRIS'S DREAM has class as he comes in off the layoff. He has been working consistently here in preparation for his return.

8-ZEE battled in her debut and ran on well through the wire. Look for her to rate close the entire way. 7-GOOD AND NAUGHTY also has tactical speed. She debuted at Fairmount but ships back here to try this level. 3-LAST CANDY closed some ground late in her last. Look for her to run on while at a square price.

1-BIAGODDESS might not have the highest speed figures, but I like the way she has finished her races. She’s fresh off her maiden victory, scored against the boys on the lawn. Going from turf to dirt is often a big handicapping move. We know she can get the distance easily. Could provide a mild surprise. 2-TUM TAP might hold a slight speed advantage, but it seems like most of these fillies could be fighting for the lead. It’s possible that she’ll outlast them but it’s also possible that her rivals will soften her up just enough. 3-TIZ CHINA, stablemate of top choice, could draw more action than her teammate. She’s also making her first start against winners and it’s possible that she’ll be fighting for the lead.  

None in here have shown much but 4-WILD DREAMS has some speed and could grab an easy lead in a field that would seem unable to catch her. 5-L MULA UNO drops and turns back. That could be enough. 1-TOUR DE’ PORT has alone finished in the money almost double the number of times the rest of the field has been able to achieve that level of success, combined. 

5-DEAL'EM AND WEEP is the choice but not necessarily a strong one. She’s been favored in every race this year, winning time. She possesses a good closing move but can display speed if needed. But think she’s at her best if she saves her best move for late. 2-OH MACARCENA won two of her last three. She pretty much wired the field in last, beating top choice in the process but came from far back to score three races back. Not sure she’ll be sent to the lead today, there’s plenty of other speed in here, but she did show her tenacity in that last victory, in case she does try for the front end. 6-GEORGIA ON E’SMIND and 4-MADELYN ATTACK could be fighting it out on the front end.  

3-NIGHT BLUE just graduated on turf. A little surprised that she has been entered at such a low level and that she’s racing on dirt but there must be a reason. She finished third in her only start on dirt, a maiden at Fonner, but think she’s going to be a handful on any surface at this level. 4-SHARP ATTACK has been in a little tough since getting claimed by this barn. She’s likely to display better speed and probably more staying power with the drop to this level. 1-ROSE'S WISH improved greatly when dropped to this level in her second start since moving to this barn. Middling speed should have her in the hunt early and her ability to finish well could propel her to the front late.  

3-MAN ON ATTACK outran his odds in the Buck’s Boy in last, finishing third in that strong stakes field. He was narrowly beaten in last year’s edition of that race. He has managed to win only one time on turf but either of the runners that beat him in that last spot would be 1-9 in this race. Just giving him the benefit of the doubt in this one. 5-KING OF THE PALACE could run them down. He’s racing for the first time since January but has been training well for sharp connections. Drops to the lowest level of his career. 6-HAWK'S CREEK won his first start of 2025 but never got out of sixth in last. He’s also dropping to an easier level. Could easily wake back up. 

Not sure if 3-RUMBLING holds a major advantage but he does seem most likely to win this. He finished in the money in all three of his ventures at around this level, including his last two after returning from a layoff. Speed figures suggest that he’s tons the best. Might finally prove it. 7-MARK MY MEMORY raced competitively here earlier this year and late last year. Now he’s shipping back from Canterbury. He tired badly when stretched out in his most recent start but he might be the quickest of these and the turn back in distance could have him in control throughout. 5-CANTARITO drops and turns back in distance. He tired in last couple routes after displaying decent early speed, but he finished in the money in his previous two sprints in Indiana.  

8-ZEE is zee choice (sorry). She ran very well in her debut; finishing second to a tough winner while finishing clear of the third-place runner. It’s from a small sample but her barn wins with 56% of runners making their second career starts. 7-GOOD AND NAUGHTY is another filly making her second start for a barn that excels in that category. She also finished second in her debut, racing at Fairmount. Both these young ladies own good early zip and could wind up in a speed duel. 6-DREAM EAGLE runs for a barn that doesn’t have a high percentage of debut or 2-year-old winners but the barn in winning at a 29% clip at the meet and this filly appears to be training very well.