Handicapper Tips & Picks

Trainer M. McCarthy sends out a trip of fillies in here including ML favorite #4 MEANING one that worked much the best over #1 MISS QUEUE back on 9/7 and lengths in front at the wire despite the two initially recording the same published time. #6 DEFNINITELY PRBABLE was overlooked on debut made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and showed run with a slight flow upgrade and the benefit of recency wheeling back in three weeks for this second start. 

Questionable favorite in #6 ROCKSALOT on the stretch out and one that has come up short at this level with the NO_FINISH back on 6/28. While the overall record on #7 MAXVILLE has plenty of reservations attached, they have not run at this lower MCL level and should move up naturally with that change, though does not project value. 

#1 PIO NONO and #4 SWEET KNOWLEDGE land here from a higher level both on class and par event on 9/1 closing part of the DMR meet. The two from that start make the surface switch though should benefit both in terms of two turn experience. 

Of the runners with experience the added ground for the longer bodied #2 RHODES and conditioning should assist in IMPROVE for this second start. 

FTS: #5 BUST OUT has plenty of conditioning though did break a step slog from the gate on 9/14. #6 DREAMRIDER has a longer bodied build and could be intent for this one waiting for an extended sprint distance. #7 RIVER JUSTICE have not seen them train. #8 MIGO videos from back in May while still developing physically into their longer bodied frame and presenting on the turfy side. 

MIGO one of two for D. O'Neill also represented by #4 TRACK TIGER showing up from the 9/7 common race. The barn has sent out live runners six starters with four winners and two place to note a trend though none of those runners in the MSW category for context. 

#1 KING OF SUCCESS turned in a BTL effort on debut though in this spot finds a massive change in class stepping up to MSW from MCL. 

#1 JAGUAR JON reclaimed for owner/breeder and original connections. Some intent could be in play not only following the claim while landing in this spot (where they hold eligibility just off the B+ debut) and remain protected. 

They bring in tactical speed and could be effective in today's race shape. #4 ATOMIC DROP also with early speed though perhaps not 5.5f early speed. #2 WHERE'S THE LOOT brings in early speed for the shorter distance and while they had a tracking trip to win on 8/28 that was in part to the outside draw. 

#7 EL DIABLO ROJO was upgraded on 8/29 as a 5.5f distance specialist despite their off the pace (Q4 Square) runstyle. While returning to their distance here, the race shape could be tougher and similar consideration on trip for projected favorite #9 NIGHT TIME. 

LONGSHOT: #8 KEEP DANCING NICK will be tested on class stepping up first time against winners and in the speed figure department as well. Progression is not out of the question for this 3yo one that has returned this year to improve with each start. Some of that could have been the move to the turf though going back to their first few juvenile starts as physically a runner that needed to STRETCH out and as as projected moved up with added ground/ROUTER. 

LONGSHOT: #2 BLAZING HEAT returns to the $20k MCL level of their debut and appeared slightly class compromised (DROP) on 8/31 while showing some run in spots. Going back to the debut they also showed run while taking KICKBACK early finished with a WIDE CLOSE.

#3 CIELOTOS WISH also returning from the 8/31 common race and noted  in running TROUBLE making a WIDE MOVE. From the TROUBLE_S they start to make a slight rush to suggest they can and perhaps intend to show more early speed. The pacesetter #5 STANFORD DROPOUT made a RUSH into the SAVED DUEL lacking a lead change and losing ground late with a GALLOP-. 

#6 SMOKEN AND LOVE should move up with the class DROP and a lateral change for #1 MR. PIPPINS those two projecting to hold their form here. 

ML favorite #1 SANS DANCER recorded a B OptixGRADE at this level staying on as the BOS X_FLOW taking a tougher beat in the BLANKET finish outcome on 8/22. 

By contrast #2 DADDY'S SECRET was compromised with a legitimate EX - EXCUSE at this level making their debut in that 8/22 common race and unable to show their best while showing run can be upgraded here. 

#1 HENNA GAL wheels right back for this second start with the change in distance as well as class and raced with a higher par compared to the other two with experience in this field. On debut HENNA GAL had a TROUBLE_S then became RANK while asked to RUSH outside/NO_COVER horses before losing ground. While the winner, Souper Sporty was just able to hold on with the front end trip the race was slowing behind for the minors with place coming from well off the pace. 

#8 GINGER ZIP presented as a TURF ROUTER on debut showing run with a TRAFFIC TROUBLE trip. She stretched out with a flow upgrade (Fast early pace) for the second and most recent start on 8/21 staying on through the DUEL as the even money open length chalk winner, Spirited, ran on from off the pace.