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Wed October 15th, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Keeneland Race 1
Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Not crazy about #4 MACRON at a shorter number in this race, though not sure they will get picked up and supported by the public as heavily given the two recent figures. Those efforts require price compensation, at the same time an subtle excuse can be made with the TACTIC- NO_PUSH showing a MOVE through TRAFFIC on 8/9 and catching WEATHER and the WIDE trip last month, 9/21 at CD.
Keeneland Race 3
Post Time 1:04 PM CST
#4 PLANET CLARE finds some subtle, yet potentially key changes from the races year year. A case can be made they needed the race coming back off the layoff in June and encouraging progression in the August effort with TRAFFIC TROUBLE impacting the outcome. The STRETCH projection also noted as they land here with the added ground, first two turn race this year while also find a much softer race par. Today's par not only the lowest of 2025 but also lower than the vast majority of starts in 2024 and should move up naturally on that change alone.
Keeneland Race 4
Post Time 1:36 PM CST
Looking at the Plot for this race, ML favorite #7 GOLDEN DEGREE (Q1 Circle) lacks a pace advantage in this spot and should be tested early/late with the presence of #5 GREEK HEIRESS (Q1 Square) in this race. With that said, the two still much account for each other and the projected honest early pace with the 65 SpeedRate - majority of the field to the left of the y-axis and above the ParLine.
#3 SEPTEMBER MAGIC should benefit every bit from that projected dynamic as a Q4 Square and even project further intent second start of the cycle protected last month in allowance company at CD and now back to the familiar claiming level.
#2 MISS ARLINGTON lacks the same finishing ability (Q2 Circle) though still could land the right trip. She brings in further upside with the change in class, running first time at the claiming level and a lower par to assist along with KEE experience.