Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starting the card with perhaps the biggest hurdle in the horse to play rather than pick. A case can be made for #5 MARK MY MEMORIES as the “most likely” winner of the race as they have run the highest figures, slight class edge with the B- OptixGRADE and their runstyle suits today’s race shape as a Q1 Square drawn outside to work a trip. With that said, they project to be a shorter number given those obvious factors and still must earn it on the track. Similar (and then some) said for #2 GRAY MIKE though looking at the Plot, these conditions could give them every chance to compete.

The two PRM shippers coming out of the common race on 9/26 would give #4 AVERYZ DAY the edge running a C+ on the day compared to the C recorded from #1 DRUMCONDRA while the two trade a tactical advantage in today’s race shape to make a reasoned case for both.

Perhaps the wild card sits with #3 STORM BACK (one of two for R. Rosas also represented by #6 KUZ I CAN ME) as they make just their second start at this $6250 MCL level. Their C+ OptixGRADE from 9/28 puts them on par with others in here and number wise not far off either. In addition to the class change last out, they also found a distance change and perhaps the experience alone along with returning rider J. Taveres projects a move forward here – also tough to take too much from the 9/29 outcome with the pacesetting winner, Rumbling winning by nearly a dozen lengths after setting a Very Slow early and late pace on the day – and one running later on the card, Race 4. 

#1 KING CAB should be sitting on a peak effort in here and perhaps their biggest hurdle is the race shape and rider tactics from the others in this field. The rail draw with their early speed should be assertive right from the jump (even considering a pattern of SLOG/RUSH) and look to contend on the lead. The others in the field have the ability to duel, it could be a matter of decision with #2 STREET WARRIOR and #4 ELI PROMISE towards their outside. Those two, both runners with contender potential in their own right, though KING CAB stacks up just as strong with perhaps hidden edge on Class (ABOVE+) and Form buried off the recent “trips” a WIDE X_FLOW upgrade from 8/24 and WEAKER impacted shorter 5f distance three weeks ago at HS Indy still recording a B- OptixGRADE.

In the scenario, there is a “duel” (Fire) and the number is right #5 THEALLIGATORHUNTER could be upgraded. The outside draw in this scenario is to their advantage and could be just what they need to “trip out” for the top spot.

#6 SPINNING PRIDE, the lone 3yo in the field, brings plenty of upside with age and progression on their side. With that said, they would require a new top today and while some excuses can be made in terms of trip and placement since the B+ allowance win in April and reasonable to be given some added time to reset and regroup, the returning published worktab is spotty. 

Starting the analysis with the two outside runners and projected favorites with #7 UNION CAIT and #8 MR IN PERSONAL both valid in that role recording B OptixGRADES.

UNION CAIT has the local experience and physically presented “surface versatility” to suggest they can translate their form to the grass. After a slight hesitation at the break they RUSH-ed up along the inside and CLOSE behind pacesetting winner, Bridge Classic, those two together at the wire.

MR IN PERSONAL has the edge on surface experience debuting over the CBY turf last month and showed a strong run through adversity. WARM on debut they broke SLOG made a MOVE hit TROUBLE behind horses stopped in the lane getting clear late to CLOSE in a tight photo for the win and GALLOP+ out in front of the race winner, Go Sparky.

While those two figure tough, this is a competitive field and there are no strong knocks on any others to step up from their races to date. That includes “longshots” #2 LIEUTENANT CHARM one that did not physically or mentally appear prepared (PRERACE-) on debut last month in the 9/14 common race and posts two works since and visually some change could signal an upgrade. #3 THIEVER debuted on the TURF and physically looks suited to the surface as they return here and should note some GREEN in both starts given the the added time to put in work.

Both FTS could step up as well for the connections: #4 KETCHUM brings in the local works and showed intent to debut in a turf sprint noting they were entered and scratched from a MSW race on 9/29 at HS Indy (good turf). #6 COPPERJACKET holds a progressive string of works and a pair of “bullets” overall strong mix of speed and stamina to come out race ready. As noted in a similar category this meet, trainer C. Rosin has a smaller 8 horse sample of debuting runners on the turf (March 2020 to present) though has had success with two wins a place and show with positive ROI and horses running numbers on par for today’s race. 

Looking at the Plot for this race, #3 LATE BLACKSMITH could hold a pace advantage in this race on the front end sitting clear in Q1 above the ParLine. They look to hold some value projected by the ML to offset the change in class running in this allowance race and stepping back up that ladder following the win back in August at BTP.

Value by contrast is the prime knock with #2 EL MUCHO one that has competitive allowance races this season pairing up B- OptixGRADES from the main track series and really not bad efforts on the turf when factoring the timing, placement and trips. Number wise, EL MUCHO fits on par with their top effort though those figures lack an edge over others, again things to consider on value.

#6 VERRAZANOINTHESKY takes a lateral move from their races this season and while it might not appear as such “on paper” is a class drop from the claiming event on 9/28, a race with a higher par than any other race they ran in this meet. Number and class tack up as well as any though noted rider change, though F. Reyes riding well right now and has been aboard in the past to not make any strong knocks other than factor some intent.

That change has O. Hernandez sticking with #7 FRONTIER MARSHAL one that brings upside all around though number wise must step up as their recorded races to date sit below par and lower than some of their rivals top efforts. As a sophomore with conditioning and consistency, it is not out of the question, though the value theme continues.

#4 GUNNY SACK should hold value as it appears they are much better on the turf and could be dismissed due to the dirt races. Perhaps that is the case, though would not be so dismissive of the surface alone given the timing of the two main track races earlier this year showing run in both with subtle trips and at the time had yet to add Lasix and will race on the dirt with that medication for the first time today. 

In terms of race shape, the higher 67 SpeedRate could assist runners from off the pace and at the lead should require some finishing ability. That scenario upgrades #12 SHTARKER as a Q4 Square and especially on Surface/Distance the lone runner with that separation. The outside post in this case could be neutralized especially if there is a scramble and bunching up into the first turn to allow O. Hernandez to drop back and save run looking to pick up horses from there.

Not quite a similar trip for #11 MONEY AGENT though brings in upside and positives/ABOVE on the Plot in a different way – on Standard (current form) they sit as a Q1 Square and a subtle Surface/Distance upgrade despite the higher SpeedRate the lower Snowflake Contention can assist in this scenario Q3 Squares. On the Plot, they are similar in shape and position to #2 COOL LESTER SMOOTH one that projects to be shorter if not the default favorite.

#5 MOONRISE DRIVE has been battling at the N2 level for quite some time though could land in the right time and place here with even suggested intent as J. Loveberry jumps back aboard. In terms of Class and Speed they fit as well as many with current form while coming off a pair of “trips” noting TROUBLE and ground loss/WIDE in the 9/21 start to their credit still a B- effort and picked up on with the Large Square on Standard Plot.

#10 KINGSBURRY ATTACK also has struggled to clear the N2 level though brings in current form from the races this season also noting part of the TROUBLE on 9/21 and should be sitting on a peak effort for this third start of the cycle and rider change as well with A. Santos to perhaps some intent.

#9 LONE RETURN could get lost on the board and dismissed from the two most recent running lines. With that in play, they can be upgraded and hold competitive races that fit on par and along with an ABOVE+ Class rating, tough to dismiss. #7 HIGH RANSOM also shows up ABOVE+ on Class and ABOVE on Plot/Speed to consider in this race especially if the double digits holds as projected. 

#6 DREAM NAP has the hurdle giving up recency from the 399-day layoff though otherwise fits as a contender and even present upside returning first start as a 4yo. She debuted over this course and distance last year recording a dominant B+ effort on debut despite flying under the radar paying $23. That is notable perhaps in this case to signal she can fire fresh, come out race ready and going back to last May for the debut made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and something to look for. Intent also appears to follow with the published works steady since August with the noted bullet works and plenty of stamina. In addition, being an IL-bred and the meet in the final weeks, a prep is still possible, though coming out race ready also highly likely.

Looking at the Plot with today’s race shape, DREAM NAP positioned similar if not upgraded alongside stablemate #4 KELLY’S GIRL one with the established for this season and back against open company following the B+ statebred allowance win on 8/7 and credible B- BOS X_FLOW (RUSH) place in that open group at the extended sprint distance last month.

DREAM NAP with tactical speed and finishing ability Q1/2 Square on/near ParLine and drawn outside could dictate their trip tracking projected Q1 pacesetters and with the key first run on #7 SULTRY KITTEN, a similar sized Square tracking off-pace from Q2/4.

In terms of Q1, #8 SMOKED should be forced to send from the outside otherwise looks to get hooked wide with #3 WHAT’S CRACKIN on their inside. Something to present an added hurdle as they already must run a faster race than what they have thus far. SMOKED also lands here on a quick 9-day turnaround and in contrast to stablemate #2 TRE DITA coming off the 313-day layoff for a belated second start and one that of the group and stablemates holds upside from that lone debut as a juvenile while racing under poor WEATHER impacted track conditions to RUSH WIDE and hold after a DUEL for the win. 

#7 STABILITY brings in current and buried for to fit with today’s field and present value. Their form cycle is positive and fits with speed figures and class making the transition from the CBY meet. They find a subtle change in distance with today’s 5.5f turf sprint distance, a subtle yet at times can be a significant change from 5f. They also could bring in tactical speed, something shown recently in the two turn races (Fast early on 8/17 yielding) but taking a deeper dive earlier in their career showed early sprint speed – and that could be the key in today’s race shape.

#9 CANE CREEK ROAD finds a lateral change in class showing up on this circuit for the first time and from their turf sprints this year. With the potential for a lesser contested lead, that could assist their runstyle from the outside post looking to clear and many, many races in their career stacking up as the horse to beat. Their presence in this race could make things tougher on trip for both #2 MAHONEY ROAD and #4 JOE THE TAYLOR on the win end.

Trip/pace the key for #6 ZOOMBIE as they fit otherwise logical right back and arguably the horse to beat holding form from the races this season. While they move off the rail coming back from the 9/18 win they land in a similar dynamic, Plot position shape here.

#5 SHACKLEFORD STRONG requires from the layoff and to offset holds in the edge on Class and overall competitive races along with a horse that has shown runstyle versatility. That could be a factor of class and perhaps the case when making a late CLOSE to win on 5/11, not their usual runstyle as a deep closer and that race impacting their Plot position (Q4) today. That could also take into account the legitimate EX – EXCUSE in the most recent start as they were restless in the GATE, unprepared at the start (SLOG) and showed run making a WIDE MOVE into a Slow early and Very Slow late race shape.

#8 DEVILS RED is a legitimate longshot to win, perhaps more for their runstyle as they can be pace and trip dependent. With that said, there is enough form and competitive races, a solid string of B- OptixGRADE efforts coming into this race to include on spread tickets, certainly underneath and even with the price being right a little bit of a stab on the win end.  

#6 WANDA STRONG has a big look right back, a contender presence in the finale. While giving up recency into the 9/28 race, she was upgraded from the May turf efforts in what appeared a PREP back on 5/8 and legitimate EX – EXCUSE with the TROUBLE+ on 5/29. Coming back from the 122-day layoff last month, perhaps the sprint distance not her ideal, she made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and in terms of effort recorded a B- OptixGRADE despite the 6^th place outcome, a trip upgraded racing X_FLOW. Looking at today’s Plot, she fits today’s race shape strongly ABOVE on Surface/Distance.

The Plot position/shape for WANDA STRONG here is right in line (if not first run) with #3 MISS RIVER RAT the projected favorite and contender in her own right coming back from the B OptixGRADE in the 9/28 common race and key STRETCH out in distance. Keeping with the “first run” theme that looks to be the case for both with #4 ROAR OF SILENCE as a Q4 Square, not a totally compromised position though could have those two to outkick late.

The early pace should be honest with the complexion of this field and front running types bookending the field. That includes (potentially #1 HOT DAME from the rail) #8 DESERT GLOW from the outside and likely to get attention coming off the recent front end score where she was able to stay on as the BOS though perhaps benefit from the Slow early and Very Slow late race shape and now finds a different dynamic and step up in class. As far as class comparing DESERT GLOW from the CBY meet rival #5 FACTOR THIS was running under similar conditions and while the two taking different paths into this race FACTOR THIS is Fast/Very Fast early and her presence in here should keep the early pace honest.

#2 IRISH KITTEN is the unknown in this race. She is a tough horse to get a read on as she has often been placed in deep for her abilities to compete. With that said the 8/21 effort stacks right up with this group. She bring in current form fitness from the X_WIDE trip on 9/7 at KYD and drawn well inside, in what perhaps is the ideal post and under a good ground saving rider, L. Colon with the mount. 

Someone will win this race. 5-MARK MY MEMORY seems most likely. He finished in the money in his last couple while his rivals have been finishing up the track. 1-DRUMCONDRA ran out of gas in both starts but he in dropping in class to make his local debut. He looks like the quickest of these. Might last on the lead. 4-AVERYZDAY, like Drumcondra, ships in from Iowa. He’s been splitting slightly better fields. Seems to figure with these.   

This race is filled with versatile runners so it’s hard to project how the pace will set up. All but one member of this field is capable of going for the lead but who will? 4-ELI'S PROMISE could be the quickest of these. It helps that he’s been in good current form. He hasn’t raced in about 10 weeks and his workout pattern has been a bit iffy during that time but at his best he can beat these. 3-CLYDE'S GREEN GO seems to be the best closer in this speed-filled race. He finished behind top choice the last time they met but the pace of this race could be even stronger than their last contest together. 2-STREET WARRIOR is in great form. Has two wins and two narrow losses in his last four starts. But he is going to have to fight many to hold onto the lead in this spot. 1-KING CAB won a stakes race earlier in the meet but seemed a bit off form lately. However, if he can return to that previous form, he’s going to be a top contender in this race. 

Going to take a little flyer here with 6-COPPERJACKET. I like the way he’s been working in preparation for the first race of his career. His barn sports a 42%-win average with runners making their turf debut. Might be able to surprise. 7-UNION CAIT and 8-MR IN PERSONAL are likely to draw the most action. Union Cait has had one race, on dirt, and the speed figure he generated towers over any set by any of his rivals that have started. Mr in Personal has also had one race, a turf race at Canterbury, and he finished second by a rapidly-diminishing head. 4-KETCHUM has been training expectedly well for turf maven Chris Block. He’ll also draw plenty of action and could very well deserve it

5-RUMBLING has been steadily improving since moving to this barn and dropping in class. It’s like he started gaining confidence. In last, his third race for this barn, he crushed rivals, winning by 11 lengths. Obviously a race at this level is much tougher but his improving speed figures, including that in his last race, suggests that that he could be a force to be reckoned with in this spot. 2-EL MUCHO was a non-threatening fourth on turf in his last start but he did finish in the money in his prior two races on dirt. He’s back on the main track for this and keeps the leading rider in the irons. 6-VERRAZANOINTHESKY turns back in distance. He finished far back in his two-turn race but he had been in competitive form sprinting prior to that start, finishing with a win, a second, and three thirds in his previous five races. 

Have to go with 4-KELLY'S GIRL though not convinced she’s the fastest of these. However, she did win two of her four local races this year and was either on or right off the lead in those races. She’ll have to deal with other speed and she hasn’t won beyond five and a half furlongs but maybe she’ll put the rest away. 7-SULTRY KITTEN owns pretty good speed but like the closing move she displayed in her last two main-track races. If the projected quick early pace materializes, she could run by them all. 2-TRE DITA is hard to caught. She did win her lone race but not by much and that race took place at Delta. Still, she is trained by Rivelli. Can not ignore. 8-SMOKED, the other Rivelli runner, might be the quickest of these. But, she has been running of gas a bit at the end of recent races. 6-DREAM NAP ran very well in her main-track races. She was both last year and was narrowly beaten in her last start. However, it’s been over a year since her last race and it’s possible she might need one. 

4-JOE THE TAILOR meets his easiest field ever. He’s quick if he needs to be but his ability to just press the pace and then finish with authority makes him the pick in this spot. 6-ZOOMBIE has been in good form for months. He finished in the money in last five, including two wins during that span. Like that he’s a proven commodity on courses that are softer than firm. He’ll be racing a bit farther back than top choice but he might finish even stronger. 2-MAHONEY ROAD was overmatched in last but he won two races back, the last time he ran at this level. 9-CANE CREEK ROAD, like the top pair, is likely to be tracking the early pace, though he might be a little quicker than they and if he moves first, they might not be able to run him down. 

4-ROAR OF SILENCE can win right back. She only won her last start by a couple but it could have been by many if they wanted to do that. She won three of her five races at similar distances. The pace will set up. Flies by late. 3-MISS RIVER RAT, from the same barn, is another likely to finish well. She has generally faced better rivals. She keeps top rider in the irons. She’ll probably be favored and could easily deserve it. There appears to be plenty of speed in this race but think 5-FACTOR THAT will be the quickest from the gate. Has a legitimate chance to lead all the way.