Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 JACKSON’S BUDDY moved up with the class drop last month at HS Indy and can project to hold form on this circuit finding a lateral change. Their effort over poor WEATHER impacted track conditions can be upgraded making a RUSH (into Fast early race shape) and continued WIDE on a DUEL with the winner, My Miley’s Vow from off the pace. They can project to be forward once again remaining at the route distance though does not project to be lone in that role especially with #2 MY LAST ESCAPADE to their outside another that should try and be forward once again and fit stretching out from the recent route.

On the opposite side and noted with the Sun/67 SpeedRate a scenario for runner from off the pace. That should allow #5 BLACK RUSSIAN their best chance to clear the maiden condition. This longtime maiden has run consistently this ear and worth upgrading on the return to the main track along with the positive swing in form cycle pattern. #4 CRUZIN N CURSIN must get faster to compete though with that said, today’s dynamic moves them up and should be sitting on a peak effort in this third start of the cycle. As shown in the Past 3 Runlines improving numbers and Grades and going back to last summer popped with the place outside and B- OptixGRADE in the third start series cycle. 

With the rails down in the final two weeks of the meet this will allow a chance to see how the course is play and following some natural watering on Sunday. With the rails out last Thursday inside was key (#4 ALADANTE taking advantage for example) and should that come back into play perhaps the edge with #1 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK inside of #3 RAVIN’S TOWN both pacesetters playable in this race and capable while well-spotted.

#5 BALADINE requires a trip though fits just as well and with projected intent. They might have needed the conditioning with the 42-day break into the 10/2 start (PREP) and from there wheel back here three weeks later with the return to claiming company looking for that first 2025 win. 

Tough to see the edge for #4 COOL LESTER SMOOTH as the favorite in this race as they must step up in the speed figure department coming into this race lighter than their rivals in the category. #1 BYWORD with a competitive effort at the level on 10/2 did also have the  race flow in their favor – Fast early with the top three together at the wire.

By speed figure contrast #6 TANGO MIKE MIKE has the consistent higher figures and arguable class edge. They are a photo going the other way back on 8/18 that would have them ineligible for today’s N2 condition. Perhaps the one knock against others is the lack of recency and local experience coming in off the two month break.  

On the top of two, M. Perez with the pair and both with reason to make the case: #2 GAME SANTA steps up against winners though has shown run in each of the three starts this season with progression race-to-race. S. Gonzalez takes over as L. Colon sticks with #3 WOLF HUNTER one with plenty of foundation and while has had some hurdles getting up on the win end, a lot of that has been due to class and when placed at the right level for their abilities (the placement today) they compete and stack up as a contender.

If making the case for #5 SKIBIDI RIZZ it comes on class with today’s lower race par since taking on winners and their flow-aided front running MCL win back in July. They find a similar par to that event which could be key and perhaps even positive timing coming back from the 10/9 race on the two week turnaround noting the “trip” making a WIDE RUSH (race shape Very Fast early/Fast late) and in hand (NO_PUSH) after losing (NO_KEEP) ground. 

The big reservation on #3 CHURCH PEW is not as individual rather than projected shorter odds with an off the pace runstyle. Otherwise they fit this race all around and back under similar conditions with the place finish behind first run winner, Oh Macarena on 9/25.

If the number is shorter on CHURCH PEW there are alternative ways to land in this race even when looking at the Plot to find similar position/shape runners. #7 WHAT’S TO DO upgraded with the change in class from 9/14, turned in a competitive B- OptixGRADE at the level starting out the cycle on 8/14 and should have their peak effort today third out. #5 SPICY ITALIAN does not have the same size Square though favorable position at the same and holding similar B- OptixGRADE effort at the level.

Both WHAT’S TO DO and SPICY ITALIAN will look to establish first run on CHURCH PEW though still need the honest pace (Sun/50 SpeedRate) to develop in front of them. That does appear the pace especially with #1 MARY MOONGLOW stretching out from the rail to keep #2 REGAL MAJESTY honest on the lead along with lone E Runstyle horse, #6 QURBAAN D ORO. 

RACE 5: The analysis starts with the pair of A. Hernandez runners though ends with finding the overlay on the board:

#1 RACARINO upgraded off their current form cycle, competitive races at the level, sits ABOVE on Speed though in terms of trip must overcome the inside draw. They have shown gate issues (SLOG/RUSH) as of late though to hustle from the inside could track behind projected pacesetters, #2 XPRESSIR, potentially #4 OFF TO THE RACES, and #6 ALL ABOUT TONITE and look for first run.

#8 COMISKEY PARK is ABOVE+ based on their overall career, and tough to discount. With that said, there was some concern adding front wraps on 9/11 and something to look for today in the paddock. Again some reservation, with the 42-days between starts, however encouraging with O. Mojica aboard and published 10/5 move.

Looking to play spoiler: #3 MON AMI FUZZIE wins this race with the return to the 7/27 B effort. While that race at today’s distance, par and condition, they had a change in race shape that day with the Fire/50 and today’s dynamic a shift to Snowflake/10. #5 KING OF THE PALACE had a massive class edge with the drop on 9/25 though a significant drop on the day. While the figure and 4^th place outcome does not “jump off the page” the B- OptixGRADE counters positively.

#9 DICK BEST also could be overlooked off their 4^th place outcome at this level on 9/18; which would be a mistake. They started on as the BOS through the X_FLOW (Very Fast early/late) and brings in a positive “every other” positive form pattern into this spot. Today’s potential dynamic race has not always been the most ideal for #10 LAND MARK DEAL though off Standard (current form) and the outside perhaps can track closer today and playable at the right number. 

A group of runners returning from the 10/2 common race and while outcome might suggest looking elsewhere willing to give a look back to #2 MARTINI MAN. The made a positive PRERACE+ appearance while on the day giving up recency just a belated second start on the year and 98-days into that event three weeks ago. Given that pattern of timing, the return here could be a positive and the longer projected odds to add further appear.

They will meet the BOS show finish in #4 SHAKE UP though a look to their J. Berndt stablemate on the outside in #9 TIME MUSE one that will find the SHORTER distance today and with today’s Fire/33 SpeedRate they could find the key trip for this distance while bringing in current form.

#1 GOOD APPLE also bringing in current form though will be tested with that most recent start and win just 12-days ago, as a repeat effort could be required to take the top spot once again. That is a greater concern than the surface switch, in my opinion, as they started out on the yielding turf in a MSW at the FG with a SLOG only to show up during the first part of the 2024 Hawthorne meet (no turf available at that time) to break their maiden in dominant B+ fashion over the main track and continued to hold their form and figures with the series of B- OptixGRADES in open and allowance company before claimed for $25k last August and has been protected since. 

The analysis starts with the pace and looking at the Plot the horse to catch and run down in #3 BERNIE LOMAX on the front end as a Large Square above the ParLine. While they project to be kept honest with #8 SWEET LA CREMA in the race, they still could present a pace advantage over their main rivals.

Those main rivals had #5 EASY FAST tracking as a Q4 Square and overall form fits however does appear to lack value if favored not only with runstyle as they show up off the N2 claiming win, but today’s race par also is higher and follows a step up in class that might not be as “on paper” obvious. By contrast the change in class is closer to a lateral move for #7 FINDAWAY and while they have perhaps other hurdles to clear on the win end, should land higher of the two on the board.

#2 RED MOSCATO should be flying under the radar given the recent finishing position. Today’s change in class an be taken closer to a lateral move while upgraded on this circuit. That carried to today’s conditions going back to 8/3 with the OptixGRADE effort finishing in a photo for the win. 

#1 SHE BE SHEEHAN opened as the favorite and took a lot of wagering support making the layoff return earlier this month. Those factors created hurdles and lacked an edge playing out on the track and to outcome. With that race under their belt and key STRETCH in distance has the conditioning on their side and paired with the rail draw should be forward from the jump looking to take this field as far as they can on the lead.

The lack of recency comes into play today for #10 LEGALLY LUCKY one that otherwise fits as a contender. They are overdue for a win on the year with some very competitive races at OP and similar over the Hawthorne main track

Looking at the Plot along with respecting the Sun/60 SpeedRate, SHE BE SHEEHAN should be tested in that role with others both sitting in Q1 as well as above the ParLine. That contested scenario can assist #6 LITTLE DIXIE on trip and the change in class to further intent for today’s race and closing part of the meet to look for the win.

Making the case for LITTLE DIXIE and LEGALLY LUCKY and looking at the Plot and “chasing” #9 TALL GIRL would need to include for insanity purposes in this spot. While more could have been expected in the recent starts, the lack of “Red” Keywords along with the subtle “trips” in the shown Keywords there is enough to give longshot consideration.

#5 SILKY WARRIOR lost their top form and needed time, time that was given before returning in September. In those two return efforts, she showed progression and could take another step forward once again here.