Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 STARMETAL suggested every bit of a ROUTER making their debut last month and finds that key STRETCH in distance wheeling back for this second start. While they must improve they have every chance to do so from the experience and positive distance change and even reasonable intent coming from the debut working twice at KEE since. 

Looking at a contentious and honest early pace (Fire/64 SpeedRate) a scenario that should set up #11 HIT SHOW with a perfect trip once again. They found the right ride and covered up first run winning this race last year (when it was a G2) and since has held their form and figures. 

HIT SHOW returns second off and from the Lukas Classic (G2) making a WIDE MOVE behind first run winner, Mystik Dan. Noting Mystik Dan in that race, their K. McPeek stablemate #6 RATTLE N ROLL coming off the layoff could reasonable be using that start for conditioning. They were pointed to the Fayette (G2) last year and waited out the time ultimately winning second off, the Clark (G2) to close out the abbreviated 2024 campaign. 

Class wise this will be a step up for #5 MOONLIGHT though one that had some graded stakes intent going back to their juvenile campaign finishing second in the Street Sense (G3) and catching off trips the remainder of that Derby trail attempt and before shifting to the turf. As a 4yo they have improved in the figure department and with trainer C. Block, one of the top trainers in the game especially with older horses and keeping those older runners in peak conditioning and top form. 

In terms of #10 GOSGER they would be no surprise to run a big race, especially the way B. Walsh runners have been performing this meet. With that said, they are likely to get attention off that and some name recognition and value comes into play as does concern on trip a they hold tactical speed and drawn outside others with a similar runstyle. That includes #9 DRAGOON GUARD, a horse that should be longershot in here not one of the favorites. Timing after pairing tops along with the projected race shape brings in the knock on #3 BRACKET BUSTER at shorter odds. 

#2 A ROUSING BABE might find some pace pressure up front though still a chance to contend in that role. That Plot position/shape backed with the freshening and coming off a X_FLOW upgrade staying on as the BOS in the most recent start, 8/22 at EMD. #4 CIOPPINA PASADINA can upgraded keying off the two DMR claiming start, races under a similar par despite the higher $16k level; recorded a B- OptixGRADE even with the outside post on 7/31 coming right back with another WIDE trip on 8/21. 

#4 NO MORE DING DONGS should IMPROVE given the trip and change in class wheeling back from the N2 claiming event three weeks ago. The figure from August stacks up on par and their runstyle with today's race fits, though graded a trip in a full field is still required. 

Trainer L. Powell has been sending out live runners as of late giving a further upgrade to an already logical #7 GARDEN PARTY. Today's par is similar to the 8/23 N1 at DMR, a race they recorded a B OptixGRADE in to suggest they can contend under similar conditions. The par was only slightly higher in the 9/28 event, though trip not ideal breaking SLOG from the outside, a WIDE trip following making a solid CLOSE and GALLOP+. In terms of today's cutback, price/trip is key though has shown to be competitive in the lone turf sprint event, the layoff return for a second start back in March. 

#4 THAT'S A FACT turned in a sneaky competitive B- race on debut, running at this MCL level with trip adversity as the only FTS in the 9/18 field. Some part of the trip was self-inflicted breaking SLOG then racing in TRAFFIC lacking ROOM making a CLOSE on own/NO_PUSH behind the open length 4-5 pacesetting winner. They wheeled right back with a rise in class and still shorter distance to their credit improving out of the gate (no slog) and in the speed figure department. Another move forward could be required though though has the right to show it today. 

#1 LUNAR PATH earned a follow from their debut last month and the needed experience (GREEN) to move forward in this second start. Following the SLOG, lunging out, they showed interest making a WIDE MOVE and CLOSE notable with the race dynamic, Slow early/Very Slow late. 

They will meet a common rival and second time starter in #6 LIVEOAKS VIEWPOINT - the two earning the same B- OptixGRADE on the day. They are one of two in for M. Casse both KY-bred runners as #10 VANITY shows up on this circuit for the connections looking to make the change after running three even C+ OptixGRADE efforts in the KY series of turf MSW events.