Handicapper Tips & Picks

Looking forward to the return of #3 PETRONIA STREET following the EX – EXCUSE trip on debut last month – 9/28. She made a positive PRERACE+ appearance from there a BTL effort noting the legitimate TROUBLES+ taking KICKBACK in hand NO_PUSH and continued to GALLOP+ out well after the wire. It is encouraging to see her right back and with a recorded work since on 10/12.

From that same common race #2 CLOUDY LASS also made a positive PRERACE+ appearance showed run forced to RUSH after a TROUBLE_S into a POCKET trip making a MOVE behind pacesetting winner. Special Sauce. CLOUDY LASS recording a B- OptixGRADE gives them the slight edge over #6 MOTOWN SOUND though to be fair one that also had TROUBLE in running, less than ideal rider TACTIC- and showed run on the day similar to the 9/7 PREP debut, more than perhaps the running line and finishing position suggests. 

#4 MOM’S PALACE appears to hold the pace advantage with their early speed and a threat on that front forwardly placed. That pace advantage could be key as #7 BUTTONS AND LACE has the class edge while the two are similar on figures. BUTTONS AND LACE comes out of the higher par events, including a massive effort in the Hawthorne Derby making a strong middle BURST. With those factors on her side she will still be tested with today’s cutback in distance, an unknown in this case shortening up to 5.5f.

Class wise #6 MISS MIKOS held her own under similar conditions earlier this season. Both of the turf sprints over a Good rated turf course noting a WIDE MOVE while in against open company on 6/27 followed up with another WIDE trip though B- OptixGRADE effort on 7/13. 

#1 TIZ CHINA showed the ability to pass horses while forced to overcome adversity in her races to date. That goes back to the debut with the RUSH and slight in running TROUBLE, similar though quick to overcome with the 8/17 MSW win. The significant contact at the break (TROUBLES+) was compromising when paired with TROUBLE soon after and showed run to close ground on their pacesetting stablemate Biagoddess. That ability to show versatility along with class presents the edge over fellow L. Rivelli stablemate #3 SPIRITED ANNE.

In terms of the T. Padilla stablemates #6 DIXI SO FAST does not bring in as much foundation as #5 NANCY’S SHAWL though the one start when breaking their maiden on debut gives a look in this spot stepping up to take on winner. While able to rate and rally, there was no strong setup – DIXI SO FAST moved up after breaking a step SLOG and MOVE outside horses and had to outduel the BOS place finisher, Run Your Mouth.

#2 QUICK SAND will look to play spoiler to the uncoupled barnmate rivals bringing in a positive form cycle pattern, foundation and lateral change in class from where they have been competitive. The turf start last month given the X_FLOW upgrade and perhaps that assists today as a “speed of the speed” threat though still could have to show a dimension of passing horses or prevailing with pace pressure something they must prove. 

While perhaps not always the most desired outcome, tough to find a “bad” race from #1 UNCASHED throughout their career. The 10x winner in 21 starts speaks for itself and upgraded from the minor or even off the board finishes often X_FLOW upgrades. They comes into this race fresh, something of a potential edge along with intent as entered and scratched from 10/15 starter allowance (7f) on 10/15 at KEE, a race won by the owns other horse Pinfire on the day.

UNCASHED brings in early speed from the rail and even with main pace pressure challenger just to their outside in #2 DOCTOR OSCAR, the Q1 position/shape gives the rail runner the edge through still not an easy task, UNCASHED tested in that role and with their main rivals looking to stalk-and-pounce.

That tracking trip was key back on 8/24 for #6 DEVIL’S TOWER to “upset” UNCASHED on the day – though notable the race set up for them with the Fire/60 SpeedRate, though not unlike today’s dynamic with the Sun/71 with the Large mid-Plot Square representation here. That position with finishing ability (Square) holds the edge over stablemate #4 LUNGBERG though should find a similar trip and even some upside with the second off start and back races/speed on par. That pair also with the class edge over similarly positioned #5 SIR STERLING stepping up off a new cycle top three weeks ago with the BOS win.  

#1 RIVER REDEMPTION should hold value in this full field and overlooked off the recent finishing position. They find a subtle change in Plot position post while a rider change in play with J. Felix aboard. Today’s race shape and Q2 Square is similar to when closing out with a win near the end of the meet last October.

L. Colon sticks with #6 HAWKS CREEK a logical contender back under similar conditions and holding form this seasons returning placed where they can compete. They had some excuse in July coming off the win with the TACTIC- and SLOG and following up with a legitimate EX – EXCUSE (TROUBLE X_WIDE) on 9/7 to upgrade and rebound with the 9/21 win. Some of those “trips” are likely playing a role in their Plot position/shape today positioned as a Q4 Square and not one that is a true closer in the way often presented by rival #5 SILVER QUARTERS.

In terms of the Plot and Surface/Distance #9 SHANKAR is upgraded and holds that perhaps hidden edge over fellow pacesetting rivals, #2 WICKED SURPRISE and #4 HAPPY CAT. Form cycle and intent should follow SHAKAR as well getting the start off the layoff on 10/5, a spin over the course and familiarity with today’s river, S. Gonzalez.  

#3 SYNTACTIC also should hold higher odds and perhaps some intent as they return to the turf and in this second start of the Hawthorne meet. They find a significant change in class nothing a much higher par in the race last month (9/25) as well as the higher par from the CBY series of races with E. Gallardo taking over as well. The change in par is also notable for the consistent #7 EYE DEE KAY one that will transition to the turf though should hold form as they have been able to handle the grass and two turns in the past with number consistent to those they are currently posting. 

Even with MTO, #11 LADY HELENA on the sidelines, the early pace projects to be both contested early (Sun) and honest 80 SpeedRate with more than half of the field aboard the ParLine. In that case it could be a bit of a risk with a “Circle” though the Plot position might  be the key when paired with the rail draw for #1 GET N TIPSY to give longshot consideration. She could be upgraded with the “every other” return to the mile as well as from the recent race shapes and subtle trips while picking up O. Mojica, to suggest intent. GET N TIPSY must return to a top effort though has not shown to be off-form as of late and not a tall ask for peak effort here noting races/figures on par as a contender in line with their main rivals.

That includes #10 SUPRISE ME AGAIN a massive upgrade with the change in class, a key DROP that is not concerning given the races this season and timing towards the end of the meet. They ran for a tag back in June while on the main track a B+ OptixGRADE earned for that win and overcoming the X_FLOW (Very Slow early/late) dynamic. The overall class edge is notable and in comparison to former stablemate #5 DEAL’EM AND WEEP one that has already proven competitive at this level and more so than the outcome on 10/2 with the B- OptixGRADE and subtle trip – SLOG/TROUBLE_S MOVE behind flow-aided (Slow/Very Slow) BOS SAVED winner, #3 DESERT GLOW. 

The subtle trips this year and timing wheeling back off the claim should see #1 SHARP STICK hold current form (Surface/Distance Q1 Square) for the new connections and in this spot. They have the notable trips going back to the start of the meet in allowance company and an EX – EXCUSE in May. The “excuses” were less-so since, though still not ideal scenarios including the 10/9 grass start with the TACTIC and TROUBLE_S while coming off an X_WIDE MOVE trip behind their at the time stablemate winner, Hawks Creek.

SHARP STICK should hold value in here and value with a similar Surface/Distance Plot position/shape to rival #7 ARROMAX one that looks to get attention from the connections and figures while in the second start of the meet and credible 9/28 effort making an inside/SAVED MOVE and continued to GALLOP+ out to run on past the wire in a race with the pacesetters running 1-2 including open length pacesetting winner, Skip The Line.

#2 CRECENCIO used a similar form cycle pattern leading into the 9/2 start at TDN and upgraded with that pattern in play. They find the change in class, surface distance and timing, a subtle second-off to suggest they are sitting and potentially returning to a peak effort.

A similar upgrade could follow #5 ROCKET HOTSHOT while overlooked off the recent running lines and finishing positions. Today’s par is a massive change from three recent events and returns to a similar par from the start on 5/18, a favorable outcome picking up the win.

A big change in par/class also notable to #6 CONI’S COUP and could be the key change they require. Their figures from the races this season already stack up on par and in terms of the Plot position, and more so in this case the Large Circle – something that can be attributed to taking part chasing the Very Fast (early/late) pace on 8/24 and similar contentious paces on 7/17 and 10/9 while given some excuse returning from the layoff going back to 6/5 very fractious in the GATE potentially losing their race before it started. 

#5 ANTHONY THE GREAT finds the change in class dropping to the MCL level for the first time and that change over many of today’s rivals already runners that have been in for a tag. ANTHONY THE GREAT should move up on that change and present early speed, though will be tested to carry that speed, stretching out for the first time.

Similar distance hurdles for #3 STORMY ATTACK and while they have run for the claiming tag, it was just the one start back on 7/5 with the layoff they return from here that followed, a given another look with that change in class, circuit and potential intent for the connections as well. #8 TONKA TROUBLE also second start in at the MCL level and perhaps their day for intent. That appeared to be less the case returning from the 546-day layoff earlier this month and behind open length even money chalk stablemate winner, Charley Pride.

As far as “proven” #7 CASH APP MIKE has consistently fired this season and at the right level for their abilities. While perhaps giving up some of the edge on class to the “new faces” they have the surface/distance experience along with recent form and figures on par. CASH APP MIKE bringing in that established form though not quite the career maiden status of #1 GOOD YEGG and shipper #6 MORE MONEY MO will look to reverse today as they show up on this circuit and back to the grass for the first time in 2025. 

#4 HIGHWOOD wheels back under similar conditions though perhaps upgrade on timing second start back off the layoff. Their overall form, figures and runstyle/Plot fit the race on 10/5, though from the layoff had the addition of front wraps for the first time and might suggest needing the start. That is something to look for today, though outside of that bring fitness from the WIDE trip while making a MOVE following the TROUBLE_S and RUSH into an honest early pace.

#5 TIME BREAK finds the change in class return coming back to this circuit second off the claim and back to where they were competitive, B- OptixGRADE (with a higher par) on 9/21. In addition to the placement and timing, perhaps a further upgrade with a subtle change in post position. Something that could also to track outside horses, a trip not always possible this year with the inner posts, though going back to the competitive races in prior seasons (2022-23) was able to track successfully.

Trainer J. Berndt has been sending out live runners as of late and including #3 KIND KISMET in that sample as they wheel back in a week from the 10/19 win. They will be tested with the rise, some value required coming in Below- on Class (and Below on Plot) something that might not be the case with the recent “1” sitting on top of the standard past performances. In terms of stablemate, #7 ISLAND BENDER they also require some price compensation though could be overlooked of the two. They should be sitting on an improved effort second off and conditioning on the turf last month, with intent present, while holding similar competitive efforts and common races with KIND KISMET during the CBY season.  

Looking at the Plot and with High-5 finale wagering tough to dismiss #6 FOXY ZORRA from getting in the mix though could be favored coming off the place finish and that outcome one of the more competitive; again of races sitting on top of the standard past performances. Their position/shape on Surface/Distance is in line with KIND KISMET as well as #9 SHE STOPPED SHORT, one that of the group is the most likely to be dismissed.

SHE STOPPED SHORT looked to have lost her race, WASTED energy before getting to the gate on 10/12 something that might have impacted here overall and greater than the turf, though that footing will likely be to blame. SHE STOPPED SHORT broke SLOG and out of position behind the eventual LONE/pacesetting winner,  Hialeah Hottie.