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Wed November 12th, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Aqueduct Race 4
Post Time 12:40 PM CST
#6 MISSION HILL brings in tactical speed which could present an edge in today's race shape. They hold upside second off and flow upgrade returning from the 10/22 race with the Very Fast early and late pace. Value should hold (which is key) given the most recent running line as well as the surface switch. In terms of the move back to dirt, keying off their second career start (7/21/23) they recorded a figure on par for today's race and paired that number in the 8/31 $50k MCL win.
Churchill Downs Race 1
Post Time 12:00 PM CST
#1 HONKY TONK HIGHWAY presents value of the front runners in this field. While they will give up recency coming back after 144-days out it is encouraging to see the placement right back where they left off on 6/21. They move inside and a change from that race making a WIDE RUSH. In terms of class they overall find a lower par in this spot for the first time in a long and that could further assist to compete here.
Churchill Downs Race 8
Post Time 3:25 PM CST
This race could present value should the morning line hold up as #2 PASSION RULES assigned the ML favorite and weak in that role. Both #1 BIG BLUE LINE and #3 SIR GREYLIND fit as contender types as they hold not only figures on par but also B OptixGRADES under similar N2X conditions to support on Class.