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Thu November 13th, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Churchill Downs Race 1
Post Time 12:00 PM CST
While #5 NO BEES earned a strong figure in their debut last month, a number which makes them a contender, though landed a near perfect trip. In addition, class wise this is closer to a lateral move as they find an identical par noting the 10/11 race, a conditional auction price MSW event.
#6 SWUNG was desperately overmatched in the 10/4 KEE allowance while also taking on winners for the first time. The find the key change in class should hold conditioning and even could appreciate the outside post in a relatively compact field. #2 KID TWIST makes their second start in against winners and second start off the layoff. They should benefit from the conditioning and changes in terms of Plot position and race par finding a much lower par than the KEE return race on 10/24.
Churchill Downs Race 2
Post Time 12:29 PM CST
#2 GLOBAL QUOTE is logical in here as the favorite. They were reclaimed with B. Cox the trainer starting off their career and visuals going back to those early season races needed the class DROP. They moved up with the BTL effort running first time in for the tag on 6/7 claimed and protected out of that race coming back on 9/25 with the reclaim and B OptixGRADE finishing together at the wire with race winner, Weaponized.
Churchill Downs Race 7
Post Time 2:55 PM CST
#5 TIZNSHELOVELY is right back at the right level to compete and repeating a successful form cycle pattern. She finds a lower par in this spot while reuniting with B. Hernandez Jr. once again. That change being a positive when consider the rider returning from injury and when noting the most recent (10/16) running line to suggest along with the pair of works this month, a rebound to form is not out of the question.
Woodbine Race 3
Post Time 5:28 PM CST
#7 CRUMLIN BEAST moved up at this level and extended sprint distance with the change in class back on 8/21. They were favored in that event under similar conditions and ran competitively (B-) with adversity (TROUBLE) playing a role in outcome. The change in class moved them up again though compromised with the rail and SLOG on 10/2 as well as a more subtle trip making a RUSH X_FLOW and finish as part of the BLANKET at the wire, something that might not be obvious with the 8th place finishing position.
Woodbine Race 5
Post Time 6:26 PM CST
ML favorite #9 KATHERINE'S GEM has the benefit of the class change (DROP) as well as their runstyle to fit today's race shape and logical with those factors in play.
The "Fire" Contention suggests an honest pace and upgrades #7 KID GIZMO one that brings in buried form as well as the change in class for the connections returning to this circuit and Tapeta along with the preferred extended sprint distance.

