Handicapper Tips & Picks

#8 HOT CHICKS ONLY shows up with a second start on this circuit in what appeared intent on 10/5 though was NO_PUSH on the day to suggest they were not given a chance to compete. The return with a rider change is noted as well as timing waiting for the right spot on this circuit and has further foundation at the shorter sprint distance making that change here as well. 

Some subtle trips and ruder change to E. Maldonado suggests #2 DANZING CAT is looking to show more early speed. They find the class change from open company 10/25 at SA as well as subtle change running for the $20k tag in N3 company back on 9/21 when wheeling back on very short rest following an EX- EXCUSE on 9/1 when racing under today's $10k N3 condition. 

#5 SHOP TILL YOU DROP projects to move up naturally on the class drop and placed where they can compete. Similar for #7 ANNA'S WISH one that has progressive OptixGRADES coming into this event and since the layoff while positioned ABOVE on Plot and ABOVE+ on Class. 

#8 PORT ELLEN fits this  race and claiming level while should hold value compared to other "obvious" rivals. The two races from earlier in the year fit on par when it comes to Class/Speed while the two August races at DMR an be flow-upgraded on 8/1 and with the WIDE trip and higher starter condition while requiring a DROP - perhaps running in that spot protected first off the claim. 

The change in class along with some subtle trips and intent gives #4 CAMERON SLOUGH a value look. Number wise they fit on their best day and even with some of those figures over the SA turf course and mile distance. That includes a pair of races with A. Ayuso aboard, the rider returning to the saddle today for the first time in a long time. 

#6 SHIN JIDAI was upgraded returning form the layoff with the class DROP on 10/18 responding positive with the B- OptixGRADE and show outcome. While they fit on Class/Speed with this group. The distance change comes into play and back to a route requires some price compensation even as the other factors are positives. #5 CHEEKIEST fits in with this group though no real strong edge when considering a potentially shorter number. 

#1 CONQUSISTADORA has the benefit of a two turn start granted on the turf though experience at the distance. She is further upgraded and the effort with the trip chasing WIDE over inside favoring (X_BIAS) course. She has trained forwardly out of the race while on the SA main track including the recent 10/31 drill working inside and finishing in hand lengths the best of their workmate. 

Assessing the ML favorites: #2 DIALING DESTINY makes a return to the main track though key change back to the $50k MCL level where they debuted showing run making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW and projecting to IMPROVE. They moved up in the three following starts though weaker on Class for the MSW level recording C+ OptixGRADES.

The pattern of recent layoff lines is noted for #6 SASAFRAN, at the same time positively makes the move to MCL company for the first time and should move up naturally with that change. They also bring upside returning from an EX - EXCUSE on 9/5 unable to overcome the TROUBLES+ while showing run making a WIDE MOVE in hand/NO_PUSH and off the visuals can IMPROVE. 

The STRETCH out in distance should benefit #3 DRAMATICATTRACTION going off their 9/26 debut visuals for this second start. Similarly #8 VRONAWAY on 8/31 while racing at today's MCL level also showing run making a WIDE MOVE after the TROUBLE_S and off those sprint visuals looks to move up with today's STRETCH in distance. They also can be further flow-upgraded from the 10/12 MSW event chasing NO_COVER outside of a Very Fast early pace. 

#12 TURKEY BIRD is at the right level back in MCL company keying off the recorded pair of B- OptixGRADES in the two starts at this level, the DROP projection from the early MSW day's and overall figures to fit on par both on the dirt and route distance, those two factors coming together today. 

In the finale, neither of the S. Knapp runners (#3 ATOMIC DROP #8 RAGING WATERS) would be any surprise, though projected shorter odds in a race that could come up more competitive than appears on first glance. 

#4 CUPID'S CRUSADER brings in buried form positive form cycle pattern and should be sitting on a peak effort here. The returning and progressive figures and Grades are noted for #6 BRUTTO one with early speed and should be sitting on a peak effort and many back numbers to fit as a contender. The drop in class in play for #7 GEEZER looks to have intent by the connections looking for a win before the end of the year. Number wise they fit off the recent (Past 3 Runlines) starts while upgraded from the TACTIC- on 10/24 playing a role in outcome. 

#6 CUBAN THUNDER brings in a massive class edge as the connections take the drop for this race. Timing wise this comes second off and for a horse that has a clear history of issues with the layoff lines - something to note as the connections drop and a claim not out of the question. 

Looking at the Plot, CUBAN THUNDER fits today's race shape and Standard Q2 Square sitting right with rival #2 ETHNIC SOUL also upgraded as they return under similar conditions from 10/10 projecting to IMPROVE while making a CLOSE X_FLOW. 

#9 LOST STAR also brings an IMPROVE projection from 10/26 making a MOVE X_FLOW with TROUBLE in running and another with the class drop today suggesting intent by the connections. With all of that said, this is just a tough horse who creates their own issues and documented gate issues with the SLOG TROUBLE_S in almost every race this season. 

In terms of early speed, #10 GOTME GOOD looks to take up that role at should make things tougher (and sit longer odds) for rivals #3 SILVER RALEIGH and #5 HIGHLY POTENT when it comes down to the pace/trip they require to win. 

#3 THE NEW MAYBE recorded a B- OptixGRADE and BTL effort back on 9/12 despite the 8th place outcome - a compromised run from the outside post and VSLOG. The fit under today's conditions with the upgrade on Class - ABOVE+ and some intent with the rider change back to the extended sprint distance. 

There are no major knocks on #10 MILITARY FORCE and #11 BLAZING BO in this spot other than the projected shorter number. In an attempt to make things interesting and playable: #3 RAPTURE BAY has spent the majority of their career at the route/two turn distance and today's SHORTER distance could suit them physically while playing a role along with the Very Fast early pace in the 10/11 outcome. #6 KIDDIE HOLIDAY takes a lateral move in class back to WO with competitive race to fit on par while also reuniting with L. Salles, a rider who has been aboard with success in the past. 

#11 OUTFORARIP is upgraded with coverall for an change in class. The races since the debut at the higher level/par are upgraded naturally here. That includes race in the current form cycle - X_FLOW on 9/27 and WIDE RUSH to finish behind the top three together at the wire on 10/25.