Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is a wide-open race as usual and things often don’t go as planned. But 6-COMMANDMENT comes here with a four-race win streak and he showed plenty of moxie holding on to win last two. The distance should be within his range. Might be good enough. 1-RENEGADE is coming into this race in the right way. Winner of last two has to overcome the rail draw but with his come-from-behind running style it might not matter quite as much. He does finish with a flourish. If you like Commandment, you definitely have to give 12-CHIEF WALLABEE a second look. While this colt has only a maiden win to his credit, he was narrowly beaten by Commandment in last two. His barn won last year’s Derby. Great chance to do it again. 15-EMERGING MARKET has had only two races but he won them both…barely. However, heard his barn, one of the tops in the country, is very high on his chances. 

He's not as talented as others but he may get the trip as 1-CORRUPTION looks to be the lone speed in here to me. From the fence he has no option but to go. He posted a career best figure at this distance, over this course, last May. No reason he can't settle things down on the front early and try to kick away late. 4-PROGRAM TRADING puts the blinkers on as he looks for his first victory since 2024. He has run well in both starts this year and should be able to rate close. I just worry that he won't provide much value in here. 6-RHETORICAL ran well in his first start of the year. He has the ability to close late. My only concern is he is listed as the favorite in a spot where he has never run the distance.

#19 GOLDEN TEMPO came on my radar when not looking for a "Derby horse" just passively looking at recent workouts leading up to the big race. He caught my eye training at Keeneland working in front and side by side with the workmate, a work that is not often shown with closers - often working with a target in front of them. He looked solid in the moves outworking mates and galloping out past other joggers on the  course - visuals to suggest he is in condition, fit and race ready.

Looking through his races to date another positive showing a horse who is getting faster and more progressive with each start and another move forward is not at all out of the question. That progression has comes with added ground and experience racing. That also can be noted from the two graded stakes at the FG over a course which can be very tough for closers and still to his credit making a late, competitive move.

In terms of race shape, it is my assessment that this years pace does not flatter one runstyle over another - if a front runner is good enough they can win and same with a stalker and a closer. GOLDEN TEMPO has been a closer in his races, even with the recent series of works closer to the mate jockey J. Ortiz says he wants to establish position off the pace (hopefully not last were his exact words) then make his late run. With a closer, price compensation is required and certainly should be there for GOLDEN TEMPO. 

Trainer C. Devaux said in a recent interview this pattern has been the plan for the colt, to race at FG with the four week spacing between races and then stable at KEE with six weeks to really get him race ready and in peak condition. It is has been reported he has some minor cracked heels though trainer stating nothing of significance, more transparency, as they showed up to jog in the recent days at CD. 

#3 SWIFT BLADE showed run going back to their debut last November at CD, two turns MSW. The challenges before the race with the distance, a far outside post compromised further with the rider TACTIC-, a Slow early/late pace showing run making a WIDE MOVE. Upgraded from the trip they returned in their next start breaking their maiden at FG over the turf setting a solid pace, Fast late, to stay on as the BOS. The connections coming back to the main track at Oaklawn on 2/28 a competitive B- OptixGRADE in the fourth place outcome with an X_WIDE trip.