Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 WOLF HUNTER has as much of a tactical, speed and class edge as ML/projected favorite #4 MOONLIGHT DRIVE over the main track and route distance. WOLF HUNTER also with the recency edge wheeling back for their second start this season upgraded with the stretch out in distance from the 5f sprint when showing conditioning intent after the wire with a solid GALLOP+.

In addition to WOLF HUNTER from the 4/19 common race is stablemate #5 GAME SANTA another likely needing the PREP off the layoff. They showed progression with racing last season as a 3yo with upside still as lightly raced type. The hold tactical speed and from the outside should look to establish position and capable of keeping in compact with #3 WESTEROS, a likely pacesetter. 

When looking at the pace for this race, both #1 HE GONE and #2 GO JACK GO should be up on the duel, head and head contesting the pace and kept honest with #3 REGAINED POWER right here with them, at least at the first call.

#1 HE GONE will do something new with the rail draw when looking for anything to separate that pair who both move up at this level and finding a change in class. The class drop coming into play for HE GONE racing first time for a tag while a contrast to GO JACK GO one who broke their maiden for $15k and seems to not want to go any lower suggesting intent to place here where they can compete though not giving them away at the same time.

A contested early pace could fall favorable to #5 BIG D one that still must get “faster” though to date has run to their level of competition. The connections first off the claim take the slight rise to run right back in this race and closer to a lateral par in this spot. They should hold form while moving to a preferable outside post and slight addition of ground. 

This is a competitive race where any one of the six are placed properly for their abilities and in with a chance to win. That makes it less interesting in the case of #3 LUCY’S LOOKING LEFT and #2 VISIONISTA in terms of the first and second betting choices given alternatives.

#4 APRIL’S GEM brings in recency wheeling right back for this second start of the meet; a reasonable PREP going the shorter sprint distance on 4/23 and after missing the break (VSLOG) showed interest making a WIDE MOVE. She also returned with front wraps on the day, something to look for prerace and could present a further upgrade.

#5 SHE BE SHEEHAN makes their first start back off the layoff though already a barn sending out live runners. As an individual she fits under these conditions; conditions to where she picked up her most recent win going back to August 2024. Much of the time since she was placed at a higher level at Oaklawn in 2025 facing forward in the four fall starts before the layoff they return from here. 

#3 SAWYER FOX is a logical type favorite in this race with class (B+ at the statebred level) and speed figures on par and upgraded for today’s race shape with their early speed, a potential front end tactical advantage. While others in this field have been effective on the front end also scoring gate-to-wire SAWYER FOX has done so through faster race shapes giving them that added bump which is shown visually from the Q1 Plot position over the others.

#5 RUMBLING should be chasing and capable of coming out live off the layoff for the connections and given the edge in this case to #1 LONG TALL WOMAN the lone mare in this field with the rail draw, one who could require a race all things considered.

#6 EL MUCHO lacks that “fast” race when looking comparatively at speed figures alone, though does hold consistency and mild recency. That also carries to class where they have been competitive in statebred allowance company, a slightly higher par/class in the N1 events last season, race which fit in at today’s par and fir the 5.5f distance as well.

Granted #2 VERRAZANOINTHESKY must turn things around, it should be noted while in at TAM and closing out the Hawthorne 2025 season in open allowance company the significantly higher race par in those events. He was an outside on that alone (something not lost on the FL betting public) and while it could have been preferable to have seen more on the track, those external factors must be taken into account. They return to a race par where they can compete, a course where they have been competitive as well as regular  rider O. Hernandez back in the saddle.

#7 WAYLLEN RICHARD brings in recent speed figures which stack up above today’s par to fit on that front. They have additional questions when it comes to the distance, only a second time in their career around one turn (6.5f debut at CD) and in terms of class is taking a side as well when looking at prior race par/purse while meeting statebred company for just the first time.

#5 WE MISS ARLINGTON brings in tactical speed into this race returning to Hawthorne with a Class ABOVE+ edge. Their draw well with pacesetting stablemate #1 STRANGE ARRANGE along the rail and #4 RACARINO right to their inside.

Tactical position and first run could be key with #3 TWIRLING ROSES looking to stalk-and-pounce first off the claim and should hold form for the new connections and compete right back despite a slight rise in this spot from the 4/23 common race, recording a B OptixGRADE despite the place outcome.

#2 DOUBLE THUNDER is not out of it on distance alone, though does appear the combination of the sprint and layoff suggests they could need a race. That said, they hold plenty of races on par to compete and under conditions to do so. A case could be made the break was necessary for a horse whip has been racing without a long layoff going back to 2022/2023 and freshened here along with J. Felix back aboard. 

Despite coming off a dominant/B+ MSW win 10-days ago, #2 ICEBERG SLIM lacks an edge in this field to best as the “horse to beat” and should that role hold by post time, a vulnerable favorite (validated in the data) stepping up in this group.

#5 HANDSOME HERB could easily take the role of the favorite in this race not only in current form landing on this circuit while remaining protected – they catch a much lower race par and back closer to the conditions from 2/13 at OP with a dominant/B+ win and new top speed figure. They would not be required to run back to that number to compete, even the two figures since and since joining the A. Hernandez barn put them right on par as a contender.

Some value is required for #4 TAKEITAWAY coming back off the layoff while otherwise a fit at this level. Even going back to last April off the layoff suggested PREP and with racing moved forward. That forward progression was also shown as a juvenile and pairing up races as a three-year-old this now four-year-old should be sitting on a solid 2026 campaign as a horse to follow.

Along with ICEBERG SLIM, #3 HONOR POINT will step up to take on winners and another step up in class as they race protected for the first time in their career. Which makes space and the race for stablemate #1 GOOD TO BE PRINCE returning from the layoff here and reason to suggest they can show up live as many have for the E. Rodriguez barn to start off the meeting. GOOD TO BE PRINCE while lacking any strong edge at this level and field, has to their credit a level of consistency on their side in addition to that noted trend. 

Looking at the pace of this race, the three inside drawn horses (#1 WHISKEYINATEACUP, #2 BREAKING NEWS, #3 HUEY ATTACK) all look to be set on making the lead (Q1) and contesting the pace setting up for a contentious early battle.

Perhaps a “best of the speed” outcome from one of the three though looking at Surface/Distance OptixPLOT #6 FIRST MASAMUNE should also be first run and drawn ideal outside that set to work a trip. They will be tested off the layoff though has been able to compete off the layoff in the past. More recently, the layoff return place finish in April 2024, though a figure which sits on the higher end of today’s par recorded on that day. A deeper dive shows a win off the layoff in June 2021 at AP with today’s rider J. Tavarez aboard.

#5 MINNESOTA MOON could also fire fresh for the connection and in this spot. Some further intent could be in play with I. Hernandez aboard, a rider who seems to get this horse and fit them well. Price compensation is noted especially as their Plot position/shape is not as “strong” as others in this field. Even in the Surface/Distance case of #4 BOLDISH, another coming off the layoff and despite spending most of their career at the route distance. Their most recent win was at 6f (FP 5/20/25) and losing ground in some of the route races late, this distance is not necessarily screaming out prep.  

A solid group of F&M MSW runners to close out the card and interesting group coming together of shippers and debuting types.

As far as the horses with racing #7 SHEZTHEFACTOR holds the highest figures in this field and that includes the main track starts going back to their juvenile season and coming off the layoff in June 2024. That collection of races should have them competitive in here and from that standpoint, the horse to beat.

Second time starting IL-bred #8 UNION ROAR did not appear in a position to show their best 10-days ago at KEE for the debut. Intent looks to follow as they wheel right back off that for this start and familiar setting as they put in the local work on 4/8 and a couple of published local drills in late 2025.

C. Block brings in a pair with a look in this race and in their own right: #2 CLOUDY LASS was competitive in each of the three MSW races last season despite picking up the win made a positive PRERACE+ appearance on 9/28 and tough beat B/BOS by a good filly called Candy Talking in the 10/26 event. CLOUDY LASS return to the main track and off the layoff while also given a flow upgrade (race shape Very Fast early/late) from the 1/9 two turn turf event at the FG.

Stablemate #6 FUN ON THE BAYOU also given a flow upgrade from their most recent start making a RUSH into a Very fast early pace after a TROUBLE_S, lunging out of the gate, the winner of that race One More Guitar rallied from off the pace and the race strength noted with the higher race par and the 3^rd and 5^th placed runners returned as next out (GP & LRL) MSW winners – both forwardly placed in running on 3/15 as well.

On the inside #1 PLUME on debut has a solid series of works and for capable connections which should land wagering support on that alone with additional visual clues to be gathered in the paddock. Similar for #3 O’HARA AT DAWN the T. Tracy barn, less “known” for debuting runners though still capable with the right one, MSW 3yo runners connecting at 11% win/23%ITM -- with a positive .53 ROI in part to a 47-1 winner over the FG turf back in Jan 2022. 

4-MOONRISE DRIVE certainly seems like the one to beat. His last race was awful but it took place on synthetic. He was far more competitive here last year while facing better rivals. He’s had three good workouts since his last start. Looks tough. The two Manny Perez owned/trained runners, 1-WOLF HUNTER and 5-GAME SANTA could vie for the best of the rest. Both are making their second starts of the meet, both had only one workout prior to that last race, and both are better going two turns instead of sprinting. 

5-BIG D isn’t exactly a big closer but he might be the one most capable of running down the early speed. He was claimed from his first start of the meet and moves up in class for this but the pace of the race should set things up for his late move. 1-HE GONE takes a much-needed drop in class. Usual speedster hasn’t shown the same early acceleration as he did prior to breaking his maiden and he’ll have to hold off the rest of the speed but, at this level, he might put them all away. 2-GO JACK GO and 3-REGAINED POWER are likely to join top choice on the front end and a three-way speed duel could compromise all their chances.

2-VISIONISTA has been meeting Louisiana breds and takes on open company today but her second-place finish in her last start suggests she’ll be more than capable of beating this bunch. Plus, her barn has been on fire with six wins from their first 19 starts along with another eight finishes in the money. On the other hand, she won only three of 34 races so my enthusiasm about her chances in tempered somewhat. 6-CAME UP ROSES had some minor traffic issues in her first start of the meet which might have compromised her chances. She owns decent tactical speed. Could improve. 5-SHE BE SHEEHAN likely goes for the lead. She no longer possesses the brilliant early speed she had early in her career but she could still be the quickest of these. 3-LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT should show some late run. She’s had three decent drills preparing for her 2026 debut. Figures.

3-SAWYER FOX has never been in this easy. Three bullet drills at Churchill are a little strange but he does look like the only real speed in the race. Holding the lead for the entire distance is the challenge but it will likely be accomplished against low-level Illinois breds. 7-WAYLLEN RICHARD hasn’t sprinted since his career debut but he was claimed from last, from the same connections as top choice, out of a good second-place finish. His new barn wins with about 35% of their first-time claims. He will be coming on late. 5-RUMBLING is a threat. He’s probably not as quick as top choice but he generally stayed competitive throughout in his races last year. If top pick does run out of gas, expect this gelding make the first move to pass him.

I hesitate to pick 5-WE MISS ARLINGTON despite him winning two of his four races this year. But he was crushed in the other two. He’s always been good here and always good at the distance. But I still have reservations. 3-TWIRLING ROSES has been claimed from his last three. He’s another that has had a high degree of success at the distance and on this track. Just not entirely sure he belongs at this level. 1-STRANGE ARRANGE and 4-RACARINO both won their first starts of the meet and it wouldn’t be a big surprise if one of them won right back. 2-DOUBLE THUNDER has back class but hasn’t done much lately.

This race is packed with early speed. 2-ICEBERG SLIM was an impressive winner in his local debut but he jumped to a huge lead quickly and was never tested. That might not happen today. Still, he does appear to be the quickest and the short distance of this race could work in his favor. 1-GOOD TO BE A PRINCE might not be as quick as top choice but he might be quicker than the rest. None in here appear likely to make much of a late move. He could be chasing top pick, racing in second all the way around. 5-HANDSOME HERB has been running competitively in Arkansas. He seems more versatile than most in here. Could get into the hunt late in the stretch.

4-BOLDISH raced mostly in routes and makes his first start since October but his trainer does very well with layoff runners and this gelding won his first start of 2025 coming off a similar layoff. 2-BREAKING NEWS often does well at Hawthorne. He’s had limited drills coming into his first race of the year but this 10-year-old probably knows how to get himself ready. 1-WHISKEYINATEACUP is often in the money. Makes his first start for a “new” trainer. Not sure about the quality of his previous competition but this race did not come up very tough. 

1-PLUME, a $525k purchase, makes her career debut. She has a long series of workouts for a barn that wins with about 26% of their first-time starters. None of those drills have been impressive but think they might be bringing her around carefully. Could be a good one. 3-O’HARA AT DAWN is another first timer working like she’s ready. Her barn doesn’t sport a high percentage of first-out winners but this one does look ready. 6-FUN ON THE BAYOU finished far back in both starts at Fair Grounds but she’s had four drills since her last race; three of them were bullets and the other was the second fastest of the day. Deserves another chance.