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Fri May 15th, 2026 |
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Emily's Analysis
Churchill Downs Race 2
Post Time 3:14 PM CST
#2 RIVER RISE returns with positive changes to move up in this spot. The class DROP is key along with the second off timing; and similar for the STRETCH out in distance back around two turns for the first time since last November.
Churchill Downs Race 6
Post Time 5:18 PM CST
#3 CENIZA PAMPA earned a big follow from 4/10 their local and layoff return at KEE. In the paddock, they made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and in running similar; BTL racing in TRAFFIC with TROUBLE and putting in a strong CLOSE, something which could be tougher to see with the running line and finishing position.
Churchill Downs Race 8
Post Time 6:22 PM CST
#4 CHILLED brings back class into this spot and now with conditioning second off and from a WIDE trip in the Doubledogdare (G2) last month at KEE. In addition to current form and class, her figures fit on par for this race, and that includes races at CD at today's surface/distance.
The early pace should be honest where #3 IN JUST MY HEELS benefits from some pace to chase. She also fits off current form (B- series at Oaklawn) and speed figures, including the limited CD races.
Churchill Downs Race 9
Post Time 6:55 PM CST
The early pace should be honest (82 SpeedRate) and Fire Contention to set up runners from off the pace. Both #1 BABY MAX and #4 ANDTHEWINNERIS are X_FLOW upgrades from their respected most recent start and the change in dynamic moves the pair up today in terms of pace where they fit as well on speed figures and class.
Santa Anita Race 3
Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Without many E/EP types #4 MAXIMUM GOLD could take advantage with some tactical speed. In addition they hold current form while returning to the familiar one turn distance after the route experiment on 3/29.
Trip/pace appear the main hurdle for #1 ALERAMO otherwise a fit on class and speed figures. Going back to the juvenile starts projected SHORTER and since has had just limited one turn starts. That includes the race at this level back on 3/6 first for the barn and off a slight break at the time still recording a B- OptixGRADE with the three horses together at the wire.
Santa Anita Race 4
Post Time 4:30 PM CST
There are some questions with placement/distance for #1 DONTTELLOURWIVES though perhaps just lacking a spot to run back in and should hold value even in this compact field. As far as their other two races this season appeared conditioning from the layoff in the Las Flores (G3) as well as less fancied behind their stablemate Imaboutago on the day. Class wise this is a better placement to compete and finding a lower race par from the events since the wins last season.
Santa Anita Race 9
Post Time 7:03 PM CST
#2 MAGNIFICAT fits off current form, class and speed figures in this spot. They return to the turf though no reason to suggest they cannot carry their current form keying off the debut effort, something less impacted by surface.
#5 SCHILFLIED is a live longshot in this race returning to the one turn turf sprint conditions and something they returned to this season with subtle trips in both and going through 2025 was often in the higher stakes company or longer distance impacting their outcome. Similar form and trip upside carries to #9 IMABOUTAGO one that could be more obvious off the recent efforts and outcome including a win under similar conditions on 2/6.
Noted those alternatives to projected favorite #6 PURA VIDA PRINCESS one who lacks an overall edge in this field while taking the step up in class off the two favorable trip recent wins.

