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Sat May 16th, 2026 |
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Emily's Analysis
Churchill Downs Race 9
Post Time 12:11 AM CST
#9 KEEP IT EASY appears no worse for the weak wheeling back from the TROUBLES+ stumbling and losing the rider out of the gate last month at KEE. Some intent appeared in play on that day and a look noting the 10/22 effort under similar OCN2X conditions recording a B OptixGRADE on the day with the place outcome.
#11 GANAAS brings in a longshot look while some challenges stepping up from age restricted company for the first time. They also must step up all around though showed as much with the progression last season as a juvenile at CD to suggest they could still have more improvement available. The return to ONE_TURN fit physically and in terms of conditioning coming back from the 4/3 Transylvania (G3) compromised with the outside draw and further with the TROUBLE_S and RUSH WIDE XFLOW in what all around suggested a PREP.
Laurel Park Race 11
Post Time 6:53 PM CST
#4 WARMING (value key) holds class on par with the graded stakes races and B OptixGRADE winning the Autumn Miss (G3) last October at SA under a similar par to today's race. She brings in current form from the recent dirt/synth races while returning to the turf for live connections as of late.
Laurel Park Race 13
Post Time 9:01 PM CST
#13 GREAT WHITE is a price sensitive play in a race which demands some value to play and based on projected odds should hold at least 15-1, the ML, if not higher based on the projected double odds. GREAT WHITE comes into this race with speed figures on par, class on par with the majority of the group and positive "every other" form cycle pattern. In terms of their runstyle, they hold tactical speed though unlikely to "send" for the lead again and not necessary given the complexion of this field and where they are drawn. They should fall into a favorable outside trip, suited to their frame and for this course/distance. Confidence level is nowhere near the same as Golden Tempo for the Derby, as GREAT WHITE in the Preakness could just as reasonable fall into a win outcome, on the board or well last - where price is the playable factor.
Santa Anita Race 1
Post Time 3:00 PM CST
#6 TIZ ALL THAT brings in upside for this second start and off a subtle trip on debut. They broke SLOG/TROUBLE_S and showed run in spots (MOVE) while all around GREEN to suggest a PREP and benefit from the experience and slight addition of ground here as well.
Sat May 16th, 2026 |
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Jim's Picks
Laurel Park Race 13 - PLAY OF THE DAY
Post Time 9:01 PM CST
This year's edition of the Preakness is a wildy fun race!! It's going to be unlike any edition we've seen, especially recently. Instead of Pimlico, the race will be run at nearby Laurel Park. The 1 3/16 miles distance remains but there won't be the concern of those massive Triple Crown crowd days as less than 5,000 spectators will be allowed in to watch the race.
After it appeared at one point that we may not see any Kentucky Derby entrants return, four are back, three who ran in the Derby as well as the late scratched Great White, who acted up prior to the Derby start.
The running of the 18 horse Kentucky Derby was a complete mess! There was an insane amount of bumping and traffic to go along with a ridiculous pace upfront. This race could be very much the same.
I went on top with 5-TALKIN as he picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle for trainer Danny Gargan. I like the running style as he should be in a good stalking spot. He ran a respectable race in the Blue Grass and comes in off a lights out workout at Keeneland on May 9. I don't think there's any chance we get 20-1, but 12-1 to 15-1 may be possible.
12-INCREDIBOLT ran one of the best, and most overlooked, races in the Derby. He was knocked all over the place, had to alter course numerous times, and still came flying late, beaten only four lengths at the wire and galloping out very well. With another likely quick and contested pace upfront, he should be running on again late.
2-OCELLI is still a maiden but he was the second biggest beneficiary behind Golden Tempo when the ridiculous upfront speed battle took place in the Derby. The outside draw actually helped in that spot as he avoided much of the traffic, but he shifts inside here and is likely to need some racing luck to win.
9-IRON HONOR takes the blinkers off for the Preakness as he comes in posting one of the highest career Beyers of anyone in the field. With the blinks off, he should be able to settle a bit early as he will also be picking off horses in the stretch.
Sat May 16th, 2026 |
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Ron's Picks
Laurel Park Race 13
Post Time 9:01 PM CST
Grade 1 Preakness Stakes
This was truly a tough race to figure out. But someone will
win. Because this race if filled with front-end speed, I decided to select…a front
runner. 1-TAJ MAHAL (beautiful place, great musician) will need some luck
breaking from the rail. But he is very fast, he’s gotten better with every
race, and he’s a perfect three for three at Laurel, possibly giving him the home-field
advantage. Of course, just one of his rivals coming over on him early could
obliterate his chances. All eyes will be on 2-OCELLI after his terrific effort
in the Kentucky Derby. He appeared to have dead aim on the lead late but was
just a little empty when it counted. This race is a sixteenth shorter which
could help but he is still a maiden for a reason. He’s exciting to watch with
his late run but he keeps coming up short. 12-INCREDIBOLT should appreciate the
fast pace ahead of him. Had a credible effort in the Derby despite being one of
the many that got bumped around. Like the fact that he’s one of the few in here
that finishes with good energy. Can wear them down late.