Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 BALLYBAY BEAUTY stretches out for the first time this season and getting back to those Hawthorne route race efforts from last July makes her a major player here. In terms of current form she has a level of B- OptixGRADE consistency and STRETCH in the OptixNOTES from this current form cycle. Trip should also suit in today’s race in what projects to be an honest early pace with many showing early speed and stretching out in distance for the first time.

#3 CARMALITA brings in current route form and consistent speed figures from Oaklawn Park on par with today’s group. She could be another in this race looking for the lead and while a “BOS” scenario could be the key, she could still have to fend off early pace pressure.

#4 GREEN GRACE will stretch out for the first time in a longtime. Though first time for the connections and only second time in her career. The STRETCH out in distance could key as well as timing now third start of this current cycle, returning to Hawthorne N2 claiming level running at a higher OC condition earlier this month, something of a “form darkener” coming back around while potentially sitting in a peak effort. 

#1 LILA’S OAK TREE was entered under similar conditions scratched on 5/10 and with a class edge upgraded here. The first time at this claiming level presents a class edge while speed figures stack up on par  with this field and could even hold upside returning to this circuit and sprint distance. This jockey trainer combination of O. Hernandez/J. Campbell is looking for their first win together though have been right there and hitting at a live 57% in the money with a 14 race sample.

#5 STYLISH GIRL wheels right back for this second start and class drop from the $25k turf sprint last week. She might have needed the race from both a conditioning (pressed pace) and mental standpoint (reluctant to load) as part of the reason to come back on shorter rest. Should also note on 5/17 their stablemate War Torn Goddess closed from well off the pace to finish together as one of the three at the wire.

#2 LOLITA J also moves up with the change in class, first time at today’s MCL level. They bring in fitness for this second start back off the layoff and showing tactical speed dueling with Epic Moment in the 4/18 FP start holding a clear place. Should also note from that race, she was heavily backed by the public and from the 5-1 ML. 

#4 LALY could be a slight stab coming off the layoff and giving up recency to their rivals in this field. With that said, she has been able to fire fresh off the layoff keying off the 6/26 win last year. Her form and figures continued to improve throughout the season and closing out 2025 with a win under similar conditions/par to today’s race on 11/2.

#2 MARY MOONGLOW brings in class, current form and tactical speed to work a trip in today’s race shape. She can run with, or stalk #1 ILLY SIMZ to her inside and look to take first run. That first run is key with the competitive nature of this field and rivals #3 DIXIE PENNY and #6 DIAMONDS JOY also looking to track the pace and land first run trip.

#5 RACEDAY ATTIRE rebounded to form on this circuit and while she projects to be shorter odds today than the 27-1 (unless betting to show) on 5/7 with the third place outcome on the day and J. Loveberry taking over. 

Looking at the race shape (Plot Fire/66 SpeedRate) there should be an honest pace for ML/projected favorite #5 SILVER QUARTERS to make their late run and continue on winning ways. While in many ways, he figures solid in here, the shorter price on a closer is still something to consider from a value standpoint.

Looking for get first run and the trip: #3 VITALE has early speed without being an “need the lead” type and could tuck inside and look for first run, given the ABOVE+ designation on the Plot. They also bring in current form and conditioning coming back from the 5/7 race taking off the turf making an inside/SAVED MOVE and B- OptixGRADE under similar conditions.

#4 TEMPER TANTRUM also wheels back for a second start of the meet with a subtle TROUBLE- trip checking into he first turn and despite the 5^th place outcome still recording a competitive B- OptixGRADE from the layoff on 5/14. #1 ICE SHARD had a “longshot look” in that 5/14 common race finishing a distant third on the day while moving forward with each race in this current cycle. 

#5 SINE QUA NON returns to Hawthorne where they had a strong 2025 season picking up a pair of wins and a photo for win in the 9/11 layoff return. They return in a similar pattern second off and from a competitive effort all things considered, a B_ OptixGRADE with the TRAFFIC SHUFFLE making a WIDE MOVE in the higher level turf sprint allowance last month at CD. The distance change comes into play here stretching back out around two turns; while they have had the bulk of their success sprinting the two turn races back in California (and the distance they started their career to show route intent) fit consistent speed figures on par with their current form and this race as a whole.

#6 HEART N SOUL is overdue for some racing luck – not only with the “trips” throughout the Oaklawn season coming back in a favorable spot on 5/7 with the TROUBLES+ (legitimate stumble) losing the rider out of the gate. In addition, they return to the turf and route distance for the first time since 2024. Though going back through those limited starts many in MSW company, was consistent speed figure wise and consistent with their current form to suggest that can transfer here.

#1 PROTONIC POWER has been holding his form and figures despite the outcome and off that form should be competitive right back on this circuit. Trip will be key with necessary pace to chase, something stablemate #7 SOUND OF VICTORY should assist with here.

Some further intent could be in play J. Felix jumps back aboard in this race and defending a near perfect record aboard PROTONIC POWER. The two perfect two-for-two on the turf late last season and finishing second in a maiden track race in their only other career pairing in the spring of 2024.

J. Felix has been the primary rider of #3 R KATIEBUG showing up here for a seasonal return off the layoff, the 6yo mare taking on open company for the first time today. That includes stablemate #4 JOURNEY also returning from the layoff and overall upside for this now 4yo showing solid progression throughout the 3yo campaign and competitive looking to pick up where they left off.

#2 BREAK OUT fits with this group though without any overall strong edge where shorter odds appear projected than the other starts for this barn and at the same time giving up recency first off the layoff. 

As an individual #4 CHI TOWN PRINCE can be taken as the logical horse to beat, however with the complexion of this race, they still must earn it. CHI TOWN PRINCE has early speed, similar to the two runners on their inside #2 BOURBON STREET BOY and #3 REGAINED POWER with the shared E Runstyle to keep the pace Contention (Fire) honest with the 50 SpeedRate also in play. #6 BEST DRESSED MAN is also a typical E runstyle horse, however that is consistent with route races and could struggle if trying to make the lead with the sprint speed of their rivals in this group.

Surface/Distance upgrades #5 CANTARITO looking to stalk off that first flight and take first run and holding double digits on the ML has a value look on that front. Similar for #1 GAME SANTA wheeling back to a sprint for this third start off the layoff and showing progressive figures in this cycle – similar to last year picking up the maiden win in the third career start. 

#7 THIS BEAU KNOWS debuted at Hawthorne over the turf last August and has the benefit of the starts this year and intent noting a scratch under similar conditions when the races were taken off the turf on 5/7. THIS BEAU KNOWS moved forward in the two sophomore starts that 10-point improvement pairing up figures at Tampa, those numbers on par for this race. In terms of FTS stablemate #5 URGENT ACTION, C. Block has a solid record overall with debuting runners, however this one being a 5yo that is a smaller sample since 2018, two horses, both off the board.

On class, #6 DUNE A VETTA is the one runner in this field who has yet to run at the MCL level. Their two races to date, are tough to gauge much from as they were very reluctant to load back in December 2024 at Oaklawn Park, a long layoff with 6 scratches before making that belated second start in the St. Louis Derby ($250k) last September, a productive race. They return to maiden company with all the fixings, picking up blinkers, Lasix and J. Felix while racing as a wild card still, that could be what this race is looking for.

 #3 HURRICANE EXPRESS projected to move up returning to the TURF and did just that two weeks ago They bring in not only the current form, tactical speed, slight upgrade to a Q1 Square for the first time and a class edge over rivals #1 CATNIP HILL (filly taking on open) and #2 DYNO WAR. Also exiting the 5/10 common race, #4 STORM BACK seemed to prove they are a better runner on the turf and look for that to hold here again.

MTO #8 SUPER MCKINZIE could have to wait for another day, though if not a major contender and one to follow earning a solid speed figure/B- OptixGRADE in the 4/12 Oaklawn debut with a less than ideal TACTIC_ trip along with a TROUBLE_S early RUSH getting SHUFFLE back making another MOVE in a strangely run race which has already produced a next out winner and another to finish second. 

3-CARMALIETA has been splitting better fields at Oaklawn. Speedy runner gets a speed handling rider. Might never look back. 5-BALLYBAY BEAUTY got bumped around a bit in last, her first start after getting claimed by this barn. She’s been racing mostly in sprints recently but think she’s far better going long. She’ll display better speed with the stretch out. Can give top choice a run for the money. 1-GREAT OWL stretches out for the first time. She has good sprint speed but she tends to fade late. Not sure the stretch in distance will help her chances. 

2-LOLITA J is fresh off a good second-place finish at Fairmount. Drops to her lowest level yet. She has tended to run out of gas late recently but her last couple races were contested on off tracks. She did finish second in her lone fast-track race. Might leave them all behind in this spot. 5-STYLISH GIRL tired while meeting better on the turf in her lone race. Drops a few levels and moves to the main track. Will most likely be heavily favored but no guarantee that she’ll win this. 1-LILAS OAK TREE also drops. She has never shown much speed, at any distance, but she always raced at higher levels. Might come alive with the class drop.

5-RACEDAY ATTIRE needed last. She was making her first start since November and had only three slow drills going into the race but she was able to press the pace early and get to the lead in the stretch. She did tire late but that effort was the tightener she needed.  3-DIXIE PENNY is another that just missed and she was in against tougher. This consistent mare always seems to finish in, or almost I, the money every race. 2-MARY MOONGLOW, similarly to top choice, figures to be even better in her second start of the year. She was right there from the start in that last race and fought gallantly for the lead but had to settle for second place. May get by all today. 4-LALY is making her first start of the year but she has been good off layoffs and her barn knows how to get them ready. This mare beat better in her final start of 2025. Could pick up where she left off. 

5-SILVER QUARTERS goes for his fourth win in a row. He came from far back to score the victory in a race that was originally scheduled for turf. That was his first dirt win. He had been far better on synthetic and turf. He’s back on the law for this race. There should be plenty of speed to set up for his late run. Seems likely to extend his streak. 2-WICKED SUPRISE lost his last race by 58 lengths but he was making his first start of the year and, as with the case of top choice, it was a race that got moved to the main track. He won his final two races of 2025, both on the weeds. Just going to ignore that last start. Think we’ll witness far better in this contest, as long as it stays on the turf. 8-GRAND ILLUSION was another that didn’t handle the move to dirt in his most recent start but also another than won two of his three previous turf starts.

5-SINE QUA NON sports the highest recent speed figures and has often faced tougher competition. However, although this late-running gelding won three of his nine turf races, they have all be sprints, with his longest coming at six furlongs. All his route races leave a lot to be desired. Can’t really see a reason why he does poorly in routes, but he does. He should be tough in this spot but there is no guarantee. This looks like the perfect spot for 4-JOURNEY to make his 2026 debut. While he might not be the only, or even the best, early speed in the race, the distance is exactly what he needs. All four of his wins came on this turf course, two of three at this exact distance. Should be right there all the way around. 1-PROTONIC POWER has been in poor form for months but it always seems like he saves his best for local races. He won the last two times he ran here, beating rivals at this level both times. 

There are many in here with speed but not sure any can get the distance. I landed on 5-CANTARITO. He looks like one of the few in here that will finish with anything left while most of his rivals, including those likely to be fighting for the early lead, have been tiring in shorter sprints. 4-CHI TOWN PRINCE is likely to be favored and might deserve it. He races for one of the top barn, he gets the top rider, and he’s dropping in class. But he is one of those that have been running out of gas early. 3-REGAINED POWER fits many of the same statistics as Chi Town Prince. It seems likely that those two, along with a couple others, could be vying for the lead which could compromise their chances.

Don’t think it’s likely to happen but 8-SUPER MCKINZIE is entered for the main track only and would likely be very tough if this race got moved to dirt. 7-THIS BEAU KNOWS ships back from Florida. He finished second in his last two races at Tampa and the winner of last came right back to win his next start. 5-URGENT ACTION makes his debut for the red-hot Block barn off a good set of drills. He is the stablemate of this Beau Knows. He gets the top pilot in his irons for this race. But he is a 5-year-old making his first start. Have to wonder why. 3-HURRICANE EXPRESS could be the best of the speed. He finished third in his most recent race after leading early. But he is making his 20^th start as a maiden and this race is a sixteenth longer than his last. 4-STORM BACK might be worth another look. He’s moving up in class but he did finish second in his last two turf races.