Handicapper Tips & Picks

THE GRADE 1 BELMONT STAKES

On paper, this looks like a three-horse race. Of course, nobody wins on paper. There was so much trouble in the Kentucky Derby that it’s hard to make a definitive statement that the best horse won. I’m not saying he wasn’t the best horse that day but maybe not the best today.

With that in mind, I’m going in a different direction. Unlike the Derby, this field is relatively devoid of early speed and all the top contenders come from far off the pace. Common wisdom seems to suggest that those late runners have the edge in this 12-furlong event. I’m going to take a flyer with the lightly-raced 2-POWERSHIFT. He just broke his maiden and gives up a huge seasoning edge but I can see him getting an unchallenged lead and maybe hanging on. In a race where most had traffic issues, 3-CHIEF WALLABEE might have had the worst trip of all. He still managed to finish fourth in the Derby. With a clean trip he can take it all today. 4-RENEGADE just missed in the Derby and his big effort will probably make him favorite today. There’s a good chance he’ll win this but think his probable low odds make him relatively hard to bet straight up in such a tough field. I liked 7-COMMANDMENT in the Derby and he just didn’t run much despite having a better trip than most of his rivals. But he did win his previous four races and he sports the highest Beyer Speed Figures of any in here. Wouldn’t overlook.