Handicapper Tips & Picks

5-WE MISS ARLINGTON is back on the right surface. He ran well enough on the turf in last but dirt races are his bread and butter. He’s at the right level. Should be tough. 3-STRANGE ARRANGE is another that tried the turf in last but, unlike top choice, he was never a factor. However, he did win his previous two races, both on dirt. He did beat top pick, and Racarino, two races back. Can do it again. 4-RACARINO will try to come on late. If the top pair lock up in a speed duel, this gelding can run them down in the stretch. 

Would expect 1-TUM TAP to run well. She’s making her first start of the year but her workout pattern has been outstanding. Races for a barn with a high percentage (29%) of winners with runners coming off similar layoffs. She’ll be meeting Illinois breds for the first time and she’s racing with first Lasix. 2-LALY makes her second start of the meet. Versatile filly will get the services of the top jock and he won the last time he rode this mare. 5-RICHIESGOLDENGIRL won her lone race. However, that event took place in September of 2024. Her works have been okay and she’s another getting first Lasix but have to wonder the reason for the long layoff. 6-LADY ELISE is quick from the gate. But she’s making her first start of the year after racing only twice in 2024 and only twice in 2024. 4-JULYNNE, like all but two in this field, makes her 2026 debut while switching barns. Unlike the rest of the lightly-raced crew, she has already earned in excess of $100k, winning four of 27 races. 

3-UNION DOLLY is the slim pick. This versatile mare was favored in her first race of the meet but faded late after dueling for the lead for much of the race. But that effort should have put the edge on her conditioning. She did win three of her five races at this distance. Can add another score here. 5-FLORIBUNDA faded in her first start for this barn and while making her local debut but she’s turning back in distance after that strong conditioning effort. Her barn wins with about 25% of runners going from routes to sprints. She was favored in that last race but she could make amends at a price in this one. 1-FONDRE took on allowance company in last and never made an impact but she did win her local turf debut at this level and won going away. The class drop should make her competitive again.

1-GOODASIWONSWAS had a nightmare trip in last at Churchill and finished far back. But I think he’s better than that. If he breaks cleanly, he’s likely to display much better speed and should never be too far off the lead. Guessing he’ll make a run at the lead once they turn for home. 6-FAST JACK is always tough. He has been victorious in five of his 10 Hawthorne starts, including last. He might have a slight edge in quickness and if he isn’t pressured early, he could be long gone. 2-NAVY SEAL will be coming late. His races this year haven’t been as sharp but this 8-year-old is always a threat. Has a great chance to fly by them all.  

6-JOURNEYIST is a slim pick. Think she’ll run on or off the turf. Makes her first start of the year and she hadn’t been at her best off layoffs but she has had five drills in preparation and should be ready. 8-END OF INNOCENCE is entered for the main track only and it didn’t seem to rain enough for the race to be moved to the main track but she just beat first level allowance company, on dirt, by nine lengths and would have to be regarded as a major player if this race did get moved. 7-R KATIEBUG, stablemate of top choice, is another that could run on either dirt or turf. However, she has had nine races at this distance and hasn’t been able to win, though she did finish second five times. 4-MY LADY SLEW will have to be caught. She would have been my top choice if her first race of the year downstate wasn’t so dismal. 

6-MON AMIE FUZZIE makes his first start of the year and it could be a winning spot. He won his final start of 2025 beating a tougher crowd than he’ll face in this race. Drills are sufficient. Can make it two in a row. 5-DEVIL’S RED looks like the main competition. He finished second in his first start of the year and third in last. Maybe today. It’s been years since 9-LAVENDER EARL won but he finished in the money in three of his last four races, including a second in his last at this level. 

2-ROCKFEST just finished second at this level and distance when making his turf debut. He is meeting others with speed but think he’ll be tracking this pace again in this spot. 3-CHIEF MORTER finished well behind top choice in last. However, he has been gelded (that will teach him) since that last race and maybe he’ll keep his mind on the game today. 7-CAPOVIVO, stablemate of Chief Morter, has strong drills coming into his career debut. 4-THIEVER can’t be ignored. He finished second in a tough field versus similar last year and he gets first Lasix today. Good works should have him ready. 9-ROCKY RACCOON and 8-CREATING HAVOC are entered for the main track only and could be tough if this race does get moved.