Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 GUNS AND GLORY earned a follow back at TP making a PRERACE+ appearance for their local debut and impacted by the TROUBLE_S in a VS early/late race shape. While followed landing in the Ben Ali (G3) was not the time to play lacking the class and with the DROP projected to move forward and did just that on 5/25. While finishing 5th they recorded a B- OptixGRADE noting the SLOG in running TROUBLE making a MOVE X_FLOW. 

LONGSHOTS:

#3 TWICE AS WISE could be in a live spot on debut. The barn has sent out live at CD this season and over the years a limited sample of FTS at this track with even less as 3yo+ if live they can show early speed to consider. 

#4 HIGH GRACE debuted with a legitimate EX- EXCUSE on debut and a subtle trip coming back for the second start on 4/26 - a race which has produced one next out winner and another place/show pair. Claimed out of that April race and given time for the new barn, a barn live despite just the lone win appears intent and capable of holding the projected double digit odds, a shift from 4/26 when bet down 3-1 on the day from a 15-1 ML. 

#5 NOLA LOUISE makes a belated return, 463-days now 4yo filly. Going back to her debut, the juvenile first start recorded a B OptixGRADE along with a figure on par under similar MCL conditions and showed that was not a "one off" improving in the second career start figure wise and B-, though not on the MSW class level. The class could have been a factor in the lone 2025 start, though given the layoff which followed (and a pair of scratches in May 2025) there was likely more issues. Coming back this year they were entered under similar conditions on 6/3 though a Trainer Scratch on that day and perhaps looking for this type of sprint distance and noting a work on 6/6 to keep up conditioning waiting for this race. 

#9 KENTUCKY GAL looks to have intent for this stakes race, a race they ran in last year finishing 4th in a blanket. Tactically, with the rail draw, they were taken out of their runstyle PRESSED setting the pace that day and had been more effective tracking to make a run. They have also been effective over this course and 10f distance with A. Fresu aboard - the returning rider on 4/30 while coming off the layoff that day looked to get the conditioning with that mile distance and this race next up. 

#6 KETONIA has a longshot look in here with some changes for this spot while back under a similar purse to the 1/19 race, a B+ OptixGRADE effort and number on par with today's race and main rivals. As they return from the slight freshening they comeback to the projected SHORTER, ONE_TURN distance and back with H. Berrios aboard. 

#6 ARMINO looks live in this spot second start off the layoff for the connections while stretching back out around two turns, the distance they have raced most of their career. Upside should follow with the change in class as well as trip noting the raced behind a Slow early and Very Slow late race shape doing most of the work after the wire with a strong GALLOP+. Looking at the OptixPLOT for this race the early pace should be honest with the Fire Contention and high 67 SpeedRate matched with four of the six above the ParLine suggesting the race can set up for ARMINO (Q4) a similar position/shape to #5 AMAZIN QUEEN, the ML favorite. 

In terms of the main body of the field, #7 WELL LIT and #8 DELTA FORCE come in lightly raced and first time TURF, a positive OptixNOTES projection based on race visuals. In addition, both horses have recorded speed figures and OptixGRADES (B-) to compete at this level. 

#1 WELLER GREEN has been able to fire fresh, showing as much last season breaking the maiden off a similar type of layoff. Following that MSW win they held their own with consistent speed figures and GRADES and racing with adversity noting the TROUBLE+ trip and projecting to IMPROVE from the 5th place outcome on 10/3 and did just that wheeling back to close out the season with the show finish over a good rated turf course on 10/26. 

#4 LONNY'S GAMBLE shifts to the TURF for the first time in their career and with that OptixGRADE projection noted multiple times throughout their career going back to the third career start in 2024. Along with the surface switch, they bring in recency second off the layoff and while a top effort is required on the win end, price compensation should be there to keep in the mix.