Handicapper Tips & Picks

L. Rivelli has a strong hand in the opener with the pair of #3 BIZZEE CHANNEL and #5 MOOGIE SON. In terms of trip (Plot ABOVE+) and Class that side with BIZZEE CHANNEL ever so slightly where they can track the pace (projected pacesetter #4 DEVIL’S HARVEST) and look for first run. Should a contentious pace unfold MOOGIE SON looks to be closing late (Q4 Square) and holding their form this season should be expected though is taking a rise in class.

As far as the E. Rodrigues pair: #1 SPONGE BATH has the establish turf form and looking for the grass this season, including on 5/7 where they were dominant (B+) over the main track though to hold late was NO_LINE and the type of HARD effort to see some REGRESS and appeared the case wheeling right back on 5/31, though will note this is another quick turnaround. #2 HONOR POINT will move to the TURF for the first time though physically should handle that surface switch. They will also be tested to run the two turns for the first time, some unknowns in play needing price compensation, though if looking for that “new face” they are it. 

#4 DOUBLE THUNDER fits logically in this spot based on prior form and as the lone ABOVE Class runner in this field. Intent looks to follow as the STRETCH out for the second start of the season and off the layoff returning from the 5/7 event when fractious in the GATE, signs they were not race ready. In addition to the start and added ground, they returned with a solid work a bullet move after the return race on 5/31 half mile in 47 flat.

#6 LITTLE STEVEN also presents upside coming out of the higher par races holding their own speed figures wise at Oaklawn Park. They wheel right back for this race and to the main track coming out of the 5/31 turf event given a flow upgrade as they raced WIDE on a DUEL though a VF/Very Fast early race shape.

#5 CODE RUNNER has been consistently firing in the minors and at the least should be in that role once again, though not without a chance to win. Their off the pace (Q4 Square) runstyle requires pace to chase and is often the major factor in their outcome. 

In terms of ML favorite, #2 MACHA LATTE she returns with a subtle trip chasing WIDE against the profile and making a MOVE in running at a slightly higher purse MCL event in December at LRL. While some upside could be projected from the debut, the preference would have been to have them back off that debut a lot sooner than today’s 172 day break. That is compounded by the fact this is a 7yo mare and clearly some reasons behind the scenes taking extended time to get to the track.

On class that could be the edge for #5 GOOD NELLIE coming back around to start off the season and plenty of upside from the two juvenile starts. She debuted against open MSW company late in the summer season at FP with a subtle trip from the TROUBLE_S RUSH to in running TROUBLE making a MOVE – tough to see with the running line and finishing position. With some intent off that initial start showing up on this circuit closing week 2025 at Hawthorne with legitimate TROUBLES+ as their legs buckled coming out of the gate and behind horses taking some KICKBACK- made  MOVE showing interest after along with the layoff which followed creating another “excuse” in this case.

In terms of recency, that presents an edge (perhaps one of many) for the pair in this race:  #2 WW BEST OF TIMES in this spot. In addition to the races this season, they find a lower class level which looks to be key (DROP) while also capable of showing early speed. #4 ENGAGEMENT also bringing in some tactical speed with progressive OptixGRADES into this event and belated return to the turf. Further intent could be in play with the rider change noting O. Mojica aboard.

#6 STARSHIP INTREPID debuts for a capable barn with first time starters overall including a win last season (Red Regret) under similar conditions here at Hawthorne. They come in with the pair of local works from the gate while decent in terms of time going back-to-back to the gate to work is usually for a reason. The recent works and spacing noted for #1 TIZSWIFTYMUSIC returning from the layoff for the 4yo debut while at the same time they change in class from the 2025 MSW placement. 

#2 RED MOSCATO with the two wins this season and pairing speed figures in May will be tested to hold that form back in this spot and at a shorter number and shorter distance, and with that in play worth trying to take on and look for alternatives. Today’s race par is higher than the other two starts this season where they also have chased close to Average/Slow early race shape - something which could change today looking at the Plot and those race shapes playing a role in finishing (Square) ability. Those factors must be considered in price, especially as this is a competitive group and many of their rivals have yet to show their best this season.

#6 EL MUCHO could hold value return with the pair of show finishes this season. That comes with progressive OptixGRADES to suggest a “B” for this third start around. They hold back numbers on par and competitive under similar class conditions while at the shorter 5.5f distance, on either surface.

#5 CIAO TOMMASO has shown run in each start and put it together with the B+ MSW win two weeks ago. That type of effort along with the progression and foundation should see them hold their own against winners for the first time. Their early speed also noted here as a potential advantage with the shorter distance and to keep RED MOSCATO honest. Rail runner #1 FEVER NATION also holds early speed and while expecting better in terms of outcome on 5/21 they still recorded a B- OptixGRADE and coming right back with a rider change could signal intent and the lone runner in tis field with the ABOVE designation on Class.

The shorter distance could be a hurdle for #4 VERRAZANOINTHESKY while otherwise respected here. They projected to improve returning to Hawthorne unable to show their best at TAM while getting in some fitness for those races.

#3 FRONTIER MARSHAL is one to get a look at in the paddock as they have to my eye so far needed some conditioning coming back off the layoff this year.  They should be fit for this third start back coming off the turf two-turn race, in against open company 11-days ago, while still need to step up overall in the speed figure department. The gate has been an issue for them noting the VSLOG in the most recent start along with back on 10/16 and SLOG as well for the 5/21 return. 

For the second start of the season, #8 SBAGLIATO could show improvement from the local spin on 5/28. While “on paper” their back class and figures made them a contender, visually before the race (PRERACE-) did not standout race ready and similar in running with the TACTIC-and WIDE trip suggesting all around PREP. Looking at today’s race shape they should have the pace to chance here with the “Fire” Contention looking to stalk-and-pounce with the Q2 Square trip.

The early pace should be set with #2 ALL CHOKED UP looking to clear from the inside and a threat to take this field gate-to-wire. Intent should be in play from the PREP on 5/14 coming of the layoff where they chased NO_COVER before losing ground (NO_KEEP) and in hand (NO_PUSH) after. #10 LAMPLIGHTER JACK also brings in early speed and from an outer post should be looking to establish position and while they might not make the lead over ALL CHOKED up they could, and at the least should ensure an honest pace up front.

#3 SHAKE UP can also be upgraded (PREP) returning from the layoff in the 5/17 sprint with the rider and class change here. The distance change also in play and going back through their route/two turn races has been most effective when on the lead and should try to take advantage of that tactical speed tracking and looking to run down ALL CHOKED UP with first run – Q1 Square, a similar position/shape as rivals #4 GRAND ILLUSION and #11 VITALE.   

#9 ELECTRIC CHARGE does have a lot of recent turf races in their past performances though going back to the start of their career had run competitively on the turf as a maiden with speed figures consistent to the ones they are currently running and should hold that form in today’s race. Their runstyle should also suit today’s “Fire” race shape and noted rider change as L. Colon, solid turf rider, takes over today. 

As the projected heavy favorite #6 TIZ CHINA looks clearly the horse to beat. Speed figure wise she holds the highest and consistent speed figures in this field and as far as runstyle also a tactical advantage when looking at the Plot as a massive Q1 Square above the Par Line.

#4 LOST SUNSET recorded a figure on par with TIZ CHINA last season with the win on 10/12. That race under a similar condition at the time, though in terms of par that race a much higher par than today’s event and noted with every since one of their aces since taking on winners has had a higher par than today’s event and should compete with that hidden class edge in play. As far as the layoff, while LOST SUNSET has that to overcome, she has shown she can fire fresh with a competitive effort just missing on debut and coming back from the layoff last year on 5/4 a competitive race with the show outcome – again keeping in mind that race a higher 82-74 par, today a 70-62.  

#2 ZEE has a big look right back under similar conditions to the 5/21 race when breaking SLOG TROUBLE_S before putting in a inside/SAVED CLOSE X_FLOW behind the “lone” winner, Spinning Glory. The distance change comes into play for ZEE stretching out for the first time, though a move at a time as good as any and should handle the added ground especially with the fitness and other advantages to compete in this spot.

Coming into this race ZEE brings in the higher speed figures from the juvenile season compared to stablemate #1 CULTURE SHOCK though to be fair CULTURE SHOCK with subtle trips in those two last season starts, something which gave them the upgrade and ultimately the win on 5/17. Class wise they will be tested again protected while against winners for the first time, though overall could still hold their own and lightly raced continue to present upside.  

#5 ATHENIX projects to hold the role as the favorite for the connections as well as the higher recorded speed figure for their MSW win back on 2/28 at TAM. While that number recorded a new top for them, their prior route numbers (both dirt and turf) were also consistently competitive especially when accounting for the level of competition at MCL and KEE. While those factors make them a fit in this race, there are some value concerns to keep in mind while taking on winners for the first time, taking on older for the first time, while also lacking recency coming off the 103-day break.

Looking at the Plot, with the Fire Contention and higher 62 SpeedRate in play for the Q4 Squares #3 TWO HEARTED and #4 PEACOCK ROAD to get involved late. While the form and runstyle is perhaps easy to see in the case of PEACOCK ROAD (stepping up off the claiming win) that closing kick can appear “buried” for TWO HEARTED coming out of the recent FP dirt sprints, while looking back at the closing run in the routes at Hawthorne (and FP) during 2025 and prior seasons, that runstyle and closing kick is there.

OFF TURF TODAY

Not sure about scratches but will try to figure out who will stay in

Race 1-Moved to one mile 70 yards main track

Considerable rain expected but will it be enough to move the turf races to the main track? Just in case going to go with 6-DYNAMIS. He narrowly lost to the very tough Coach Jimi D in his first start of the meet. He was entered for the main track only and if this race does get moved, he’ll be facing mostly career turf runners. On turf I would expect 3-BIZZEE CHANNEL to hold the edge. This 10-year-old has been claimed from five of his last six races; three different times by connections with this trainer. He has earned over $550k on turf in his career. The well-traveled 4-DEVIL'S HARVEST makes his local debut. He loves the front end and figures to get the lead quickly but he has been running out of gas. However, this will be one of the easiest fields he has ever faced. 5-MOOGIE SON, stablemate of Bizzee Channel, takes on a bit better after just scoring his first Hawthorne victory. 

6-LITTLE STEVEN could be poised to surprise. Throw out his turf race in last and see that he had been splitting tough fields at Oaklawn. His versatility allows him to race competitively on or off the lead. 5-CODE RUNNER is almost always competitive. He finished in the money in 12 of his last 18 races, winning four times. However, he does his best running late and not sure there will be enough pace to set up for him. 3-EUCLID AVENUE might be in too tough but he sure does love Hawthorne. He’s had 18 races here and won seven of them, including last two, while finishing in the money another six times.

Five furlongs main track

4-ENGAGEMENT Recent local form has been good. They’ll have to catch her. 2-MACHA LITE didn’t race until late December 2025 in her 6^th year and makes her 2026 debut today as a 7-year-old but her recent drills have been impressive. Could be the best of these. 1-TIZSWIFTYSMUSIC finished far back in both her races but both were against maiden specials. Figures with the class drop.

2-RED MOSCATO reeled off two straight victories. Both were accomplished in near wire-to-wire efforts. He beat all but one of these rivals in at least one of those scores. There’s a good chance he’ll lead all the way again. 5-CIAO TOMMASO just crushed an Illinois-bred maiden special field on the lawn but he also finished second in his prior two starts on the main track. He doesn’t appear to be quite as quick as top choice, though he does often display good early speed. Turf to dirt is often a good handicapping tool. Wouldn’t ignore. 4-VERRAZANOINTHESKY just finished second at 44-1 but he is a runner that has always been at his best on this racetrack. He can finish fast. Could rush by them all.

One mile 70 yards main track

11-VITALE likely meets others with speed but he just wired the field in a similar race that was taken off the lawn. Can do it again. 8-SBAGLIATO has never shown much in limited main track races but he is dropping to a new career low and his pedigree screams for an off track, and he could get his wish if the weatherman is correct. 10-LAMPLIGHTER JACK is another dropping to a new low. He has the speed to challenge for the lead and his good recent form would suggest that he’s going to be a forward factor from start to finish.

4-LOST SUNSET has been training well in preparation for her 2026 debut. Toss out her turf debut in her last race of 2025 and you see a consistent mare who won her last two main track starts. Don’t know what to do with 6-TIZ CHINA. She wired the field in last, facing much better, and got claimed, but that claim was voided for whatever reason. Now she’s dropping to the basement. She should win by daylight but…. Another claim seems likely but will it be voided again? Hard to bet on or against her. 1-MISS SAIPAN isn’t really a closer but she does seem like the one most likely to close in this speed-filled field.

One mile 70 yards main track

5-ATHENIX like most in here, possesses good early speed but it was the closing move she displayed in her last two starts that makes her the pick in this speed-filled field. 2-ZEE could be the best of the speed and the stretch in distance might even enhance that speed. Gets Lasix for the second time while trying to navigate two turns for the first time. Might lead all the way. 6-LA REYNITA has been a consistent pace factor but she does tend to tire late in her races. She’ll have to step it up a notch to be close at the finish.