Handicapper Tips & Picks

Looking at R1 taking on #4 ROCK N ROLL SONG at the projected favorite role, lacking an edge as they show up from the recent series of claiming races into a different circuit. A shorter number is hesitation on #6 NOKIE as well one with back numbers that clearly make them the horse to beat, however the pattern of layoff lines still looms a handicapping factor which cannot be dismissed without price compensation. That is all to say their effort while coming up short as the chalk last month at LR was credible B- making a MOVE and GALLOP+ after the SLOG at 5f distance and notably WARM on the day. 

Playable alternatives: #1 RYTHEM GIRL fits on speed figures and class while finding a STRETCH from the 5.5f distance sprint in their recent start while returning to DMR where they have run well in the past; #7 SUPER ELLIE has some solid back numbers even on the dirt (giving them the "known" surface factor over #5 HEADING FOR OM) and sprinting, a distance change from the series of routes since June 2024; #8 BUDS N SUDS kept in the mix freshened back at DMR from a TRAFFIC trip chasing a Slow early/late pace on 6/28. 

As noted in previous analysis, trainer L. Powell has been off to a COLD start at DMR and with two in the race could be the spot to get on track. In terms of #3 DORIE MILLER they are capable though tough to take at a shorter number as they have come up short at this level without excuse since last year and their most "recent" win was at LRC in September 2024; #5 CECILIA STREET present more upside, 3yo filly with current form and competitive B- race at this level/distance last month at LRC and the connections scratching from the Fleet Treat stakes on 7/24 picking this spot. They could get attention as expected off the ML or perhaps dismissed given the two DMR starts last August both races sprinting and improved with the STRETCH. 

#1 CHRISTEL CLEAN from the rail and sprint speed shifting back to the dirt could be out early looking to take the field gate-to-wire, tactically could come down to how others stretching out are ridden in this race in terms of pace/race dynamic with the paired 61 SpeedRate and Snowflake Contention; #4 BERRY VALLEY one of those making the distance change here though should appreciate the STRETCH and third off should be the time if ever to return with a peak effort. 

#3 BUSY MAKING MUNNY value play finding the change in class, a significant drop when looking at race par, a much lower range for this race than anything they have faced since returning form the layoff in April. While they have been off the board in those races, they are not "off form" nothing TACTIC- trips and TROUBLE_S and the STRETCH Projection giving them further consideration making that distance change for the first time this year and career. 

#1 MIDNIGHT BUCK turfy visuals, works in blinkers and given the connections and rail, could project to show positional early speed; #2 LIBERTY CAT turfy, might need start and more ground, longer frame; #3 MISSED FORTUNE no knocks, not overly exciting, 5f could be shorter than their ideal; #4 BELIEVER step slog from gate on 7/10 tracked outside stablemate the two side by side under wraps in later part of move; #5 HALLAGREY on the right surface for debut based on action, high paddle, based on works could see them forward though was messy from the gate rush inside of company on 7/4; #6 CAN'TAFFORD NOT TO race ready, has run; #7 NEVER OBEY n/a have not seen; #8 HAL OF A DAY live, has run, race ready working in blinkers has shown early speed under wraps in work and best over workmates; #9 BOLD TIGER expect to show early speed and contest pace from outside, fine for turf, undetermined class; #10 VERN GOSDIN n/a have not seen

#6 MESMERMIZE looks every part of a runner and should be live and competitive on debut. They have class to show tactical speed and training have been willingly outworking stablemates in the morning on their own. Perhaps they are the second choice with #8 HIMARI expecting to get attention for Baffert though as individuals preference easily siding with MESMERIZE

4yo #5 CONVO returns to make a belated second start and under similar conditions and par to their December 2025 debut. They race competitively B- given the TROUBLE_S making a WIDE MOVE into a Slow early and Very Slog early pace, a clear place behind open length pacesetting winner, Into the Hall. For this return, they have been working steadily and frame suited to this extended sprint distance, by design. 

#5 SISSEL wheels right back for this second start, a lateral change in terms of race par, though a massive flow upgrade after making a RUSH into a Very Fast early (and late) pace with the race slowing late and was just one of two FTS in the 7/5 LRC maiden event.

#7 GRIEVOUS ANGEL races as one of the few 4yo in the field returning in this spot off the long layoff and barn change. They projected to need the DROP off the debut visuals last June and closed out the abbreviated two start season with a TROUBLE+ trip over the DMR turf.