Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 BRAZORIA turned in a B OptixGRADE despite the show outcome for their debut effort 16-days ago with a look right back. In the debut, they broke SLOG made a MOVE through TRAFFIC and CLOSE X_FLOW behind the pacesetting winner with minimal change in running order and continued to GALLOP+ out past the wire. The connections could suggest intent as they will stretch out in distance here and likely by design given the timing of the race rather than wait for something shorter. 

The 5f distance is not ideal for ML favorite #7 PAVEL IS APPEALING to take on for the top spot and present value on alternatives. #6 TIGER OF THE SEA wheels back from the BLANKET finish common race on 7/18 upgraded making an X_WIDE RUSH and into a DUEL holding position late. The rider change to J. Rosario could see a slight tactical change as well as they are not a "need the lead" runner. #11 ANDIAMO RAGAZZA will need some racing luck to draw in and with a trip from the outside though finds a key change in class back to state bred company for the first time in a long time and appears pointed to DMR where they have run well in teh past. Some further changes to note as the front wraps were added back on 6/12 and with the TACTIC- WIDE trip on that day find a rider change with A. Fresu taking back over -- the two paired in a turf sprint last April at SA finish a solid place.

LONGSHOT: #2 JET SWEEP JOE scratched from the Turf Sprint $250k stakes over this course and distance last week, the connections land here and logical with the needed class relief. The placement and class level has been a struggle throughout most of their career following the debut win at KEE as a juvenile has almost exclusively followed up with stakes races and that playing a role in race outcome. Their most recent win was an OCN1X turf sprint score at WO last June and coming back this year has shown run in spots despite the outcome on the track including the dirt Iowa Sprint last month making a WIDE MOVE in a much higher race par than today's event. 

Projecting #3 IN JUST MY HEELS to drift up from the 5-1 ML (would be no value at that number) and closer to the 10-1 makes for a value play. She bring in current form and their runstyle key for this race. While Q3 is generally a tricky spot; IN JUST MY HEELS has often run some of their higher figures, more competitive races from that plot position/shape looking for that to translate to a favorable trip to upset here.