Handicapper Tips & Picks

#8 EXEMPLIFIED could turn out to be a clever claim and a big price play in the opener. He debuted against open at HS Indy and a race that looked to be a "prep" for CD. He moved forward in that second start, the place finish was earned with a less than ideal trip, making an inside SAVED MOVE behind "perfect" winner, Washington's Union and continued to run on after the wire, showing stamina for the distance that day and the 9f distance they return to here and similar class as well. Claimed just over a week ago, he wheels right back from a race where he had adversity with TROUBLE, ground loss/WIDE when carried out by another rival and was unable to get into the race after noting the open length pacesetting winner, Desert Wolf. 

In terms of class, #9 ROCKSTAR RED could present a slight edge, however he comes back from another layoff and still unproven on dirt. Distance could be a another concern as in the longer distance races he has lost ground late.

Found this race tough to get creative in as #7 DRE ME LESS and #8 MY GOOD FORTUNE look logical as the race favorite. Outside of that pair, there is not much that separates the others in this field on ability, form, class and pace. 

#5 CHAMPAGNE SURPRISE could "surprise" here as she showed some run with adversity in her KY Downs debut back in August. That race is notable as the form from that event has held up with horses running well and improving, even if they did not record the win. Race strength could be the knock on #9 IUKA MISS as she makes this second start of the form cycle and showed some interest after the slow start (Talamo has a SLOG pattern and back aboard, buyer beware) poor handling and WIDE trip as she continued to GALLOP+ after the wire and could easily IMPROVE. 

In terms of #4 UP ON THE EDGE, the lukewarm morning line favorite he has a pace advantage over the others in this field that have run, however has shown the pattern in each start of losing ground late and without excuse coming out of races with soft/average paces for the level and one-turn distance. 

The two first time starters look to have some intent coming into this meet to debut: #1 MONEY WORKS was entered MSW at 7f on 10/15 unable to draw in; and  #3 MOTHER FREEDOM initially entered MSW 8.5f on 10/13 and trainer scratch that day lands here. 

Some considerable main players in this race are sitting on the AE and can change the race both pace and strength should they draw in. 

#10 DONEGAL MISCHIEF was strong on debut recording a B+ OptixGRADE and 88 OptixFIG. From a physical standpoint he looks the part of a SPRINTER and makes sense that he remains at one turn for the circuit switch, barn change and first against winners. #2 ARABIAN PRINCE did not have the chance to sprint on the turf until this year and for these connections but has shown an affinity for the surface and distance with competitive efforts under similar conditions. Trip can be the main hurdle with his RunStyle though could be some intent with R. Gutierrez taking back over. 

#14 CIRCLING is currently sitting on the AE and could further the tough luck as that was the case on debut; a BTL effort dealing with KICKBACK before making an eye-catching WIDE BURST and projects to IMPROVE off the debut and 7th place result. #4 NOTA BELLE also recorded a BTL effort on debut, a sneaky late, CLOSE run from her late after a SLOG/TROUBLE_S and continued to GALLOP+ strong after the wire. 

It appears, even with the lightly raced runners in this field, those that have run on the turf and/or route distance they have shown their potential. The exception is #4 RAINING SUGAR one that was scheduled to debut on the turf, unable to draw in on 8/1 before winning first out (B+ POCKET) when the races were moved to the main track on 8/4. The connections were indecisive when picking the second start as she was cross-entered in the Pocahontas (G3) as well as the 9/14 allowance they decided to run in. As far as the effort that day, she had some excuses that began with the poor TACTIC- (noted rider change today) that had her taking KICKBACK in TRAFFIC before moving WIDE against the inside favoring profile. As far as the visuals she made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and in-running can IMPROVE. 

This race is expected to change as the assigned morning line favorite Raise Cain is unlikely (and now ineligible) to run here after winning the Perryville Stakes on Sat. 

#10 DUCALE is likely to take up that favorite role. He has shown talent going back before the long, 557-day layoff he returns from today. 

#8 DETERMINEDLY looks well intended with the return to Keeneland and 7f distance, one he has run well over the past including when in his maiden days with Prat aboard. 

#6 W W CANDY is pace dependent and that was the case with the BTL effort (common race and similar overall effort to #5 ANGKOR) with TRAFFIC TROUBLE in the path of his late CLOSE. #1 VITTORIO has a favorable RunStyle and should have no excuse in terms of trip - he is often his own worst enemy in terms of lacking excuse on the win end and quite happy to find the minors for a paycheck. 

Of the experienced runners in the main body of the field, #1 MOESAHANDFUL is the most interesting as he looks to make his TURF debut, the surface that he was intended for earlier this season and visually suited for. 

The lack of "excitement" on the others upgrades the new faces with both #2 ADDED MISCHIEF and #3 NATION on debut and capable for their connections.