Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 SPOILER has shown some distance limitations despite the maiden win on another circuit earlier this year. As he returns with the cutback in distance, the timing is also on his side for this second start off the layoff and flow upgrade (and draw) from the 9/7 KY Downs race. His presence should keep the pace and rival #4 DARK VECTOR honest - one that is coming off a bias aided place finish over the off-track at Saratoga. 

The distance change is also a positive for #5 B SUDD as the connections tried the added ground last month and he proved that distance limitation. As an individual, he has consistent form and figures on par for this level, though has the tendency to settle for minors and requires the trip and on his "A" game to win. 

The early pace projects to be contentious, the type of race shape that benefits #2 COLLIER'S TIME and #7 MACHO VILLA. #8 TIME ANDBEYOND could also fall into a trip as he does not have a designated RunStyle often due to the tendency to break slow though with the right positioning from Leparoux and PLODDY nature can fall in the right time and place. 

#1 BHOMA has back numbers and coming off a BTL effort last out at KY Downs (and vet scr under similar allowance conditions to today on 9/29 at CD) could get return to winning ways. #4 BE LIKE WATER has the tendency to SLOG though unable to overcome the Very/VSLOG in the TCA (G2) earlier this month. In terms of class, she looked overmatched at that graded stakes level and all around this is a more reasonable spot for her to attempt to get back on track. 

Looking at a pair of second time starters that draw better today and could present upside: #3 KENTUCKYTERMINATOR was compromised by the outside post, WIDE trip that followed as well as the COLD barn during the CD meet. As far as her effort she showed early interest, lost position before showing interest again late while the top four finished in a blanket at the wire. #7 PRINCESS IS OLIVIA was set to make her second start here at KEE and today's 7f distance when unable to draw in off the AE on 10/12. As far as her debut, she was WARM on the track and from the outside post made a WIDE RUSH into a solid pace before losing ground behind the lone winner. The results of the race going forward have yielded mixed results though some have improved and even won next out. 

#7 RED RIVER MAGIC recorded a B OptixGRADE on debut and validated that effort last month coming off the layoff and second start changing things up to the turf. She will stretch out here and while unknown should hold her form. The distance change is also in play for #4 MON DIEU and while she is also "unproven" at the distance her visuals from a physical standpoint on debut suggest the STRETCH out in distance will move her up. 

#6 ASPIRING COMEDIAN isn't much horse, though the change in class to run for the tag moves them up naturally in this spot. The class change should also benefit #7 COMMISSIONER OSCAR as well as the recency as the connections wheel right back in less than two weeks for this spot. 

#11 MAGICAL MONARCH finds not just the class change but the barn change and layoff returning here and all things considered can almost be treated as a FTS. Some racing luck will be required for fellow "second time starter" #14 MIDCAT sitting on the AE though also taking his debut with a grain of salt given the WARM_UP, WIDE trip and NO_PUSH with the COLD barn to suggest the outing had "PREP" implications. 

This is a competitive race where many in this field have recorded similar speed figures and from that perspective there is no standout. #1 TOUGH LITTLE NUT was good but green (and lucky) winning on debut at Hawthorne, though things changed with the WIDE trip against the KY Downs profile, in his second start. Going back to the debut visuals, he presented as one that can handle added ground and will have another route chance here. #2 BLUE EYED GEORGE also caught WIDE against the course profile and still a lightly raced type, could be one we have not seen the best from yet.

#7 COPPER MISSLE turned in a solid effort at this level last month at CD and has that effort and recency on his side, though in terms of the win, must step up number wise. #8 LEGAL TITAN finishing place in that common race, had a more favorable trip saving ground throughout and assisted the finishing position. 

#13 FAMILY FACTOR (AE) must prove himself on class, though as far as the switch to TURF he should handle that surface switch. #14 BILLY THE GREEK (AE) also had adversity and legit EX - EXCUSE in the Juvenile Stakes, though must step up overall.

#8 NO JUDGEMENT has the benefit of a race and a solid effort making a WIDE MOVE in his debut, earning an 81 OptixFIG and B- OptixGRADE. The connections have been pointing to this meet and preferred extended sprint distance noting a pair of scratches (Trainer and AE) from the recent weeks. The 9/17 maiden race has been productive for runners here at Keeneland with two next out maiden winners, the race winner, Stretch Ride coming back to win an allowance and another called Nyquist Frequency finishing second.