Handicapper Tips & Picks

If this race stays together as its drawn, the pace should be Contentious (Fire) and a scenario to set up for #9 HIGH OAK from off the pace. As an individual, he showed brilliance early on when breaking his maiden on debut and improving in a big way to win the Saratoga Special (G2) in just his. Since those early juvenile days he has struggled to find the winners circle and also his way to the track noting excessive layoffs that arguably drew a line through his sophomore season. He has returned this summer in form, and running races without the time between starts. Those races also have seen him return to his top efforts, recording consistent OptixFIG in the 90's and numbers on par for today's G3 event. 

#7 EX WHY ZEE has come up short as the favorite in the two outings this season and could very well be favored again today. The timing as the favorite might not have been right on 10/13 though logical last week and he showed more than the line and 5^th place finish suggests. Trip will be key and some intent with C. Leonard back in the bike. That opens up #1 FRANKIEPARK and finds a solid change with C. Stewart. #6 NOT ME GRAM turned in a solid effort at this level on 10/8 with K. Husted the driver taking back over here. Older gelding #8 ERNIE THE MOOSS is tough to make a case for on the win end, though can get into the mix for a minor as he has been holding his own against many of today’s rivals. 

Value in this race sits with #4 KEY INGREDIANT one that earned a follow back on opening day, 9/9 and needed the start giving up recency on 10/6. #2 CAMMILLS MONEY MAN is logical off his overall form and races this season. #5 TELSTAR has been consistent picking up checks, though perhaps to a fault lacking the win without much in terms of excuse.

#1 ALMOST GONE likely needed the start on 10/13 and found himself further compromised against the track profile playing a role in their outcome.#2 ASHLEES SILVER GUY also can be upgraded against the bias that day and returns here with a driver upgrade to B. Bates – B. Bates drove the place finisher of that common race, #7 DAY OF LEGENDS. Going back to 10/6 FOX VALLEY BRUIN has the push returning from that common race and back in against many of today’s rivals. 

#4 GORGEOUS BIG GUY has been dominant in this division and the clear horse to beat here. The most obvious second tier sits with #1 FOX VALLEY JULIAN and #2 FOX VALLEY YORK, though looking to get more creative #7 ENRICO PALLAZZO and #8 GOTTA GO GRAM have been right there for the minors the outside draw should keep the numbers up as price alternatives underneath. 

Those following here of listening to me at the track, know my fondness for #9 MOPPIES MOOSS. He caught the eye with a sneaky strong effort on 10/8 and looked live and bet down from the 8-1 morning line in the 10/14 common race, partially due to the driver change and another change here as K. Husted is in the bike for the first time. Going back to the 10/14 common stakes race, MOPPIES MOOSS was trip compromised well before breaking - #7 LOUS PRIVATE EYE benefit from a trip setup to win; fourth place #1 TRU CASH reunites with C. Stewart and was right here for the minors. Going back to MOPPIES MOOSS, he put 10/14 behind him last week rebounding with a strong effort behind perfect winner, #3 SHADY MAPLE ALSTAR.

The main contenders should be no surprise in here with #7 GUITAR MAN suffering his first off the board finish on Night of Champions and quickly rebounded last week with the win and regaining confidence. #8 FOX VALLEY DURHAM might have peaked in his cycle with the 10/6 effort to win and some regression number wise still respectable show behind, Gorgeous Big Guy. #6 YOU NEVER CAN TELL was another recorded a top on 10/6 and projects to return to a top effort today and further noted return with C. Leonard in the bike. 

#4 FOX VALLEY PRESLEY stands out and projects to hold favoritism in this race and would not be surprised if he is shorter than the 5-2 ML. Second choice #1 MAZIN BLAZIN caught the eye returning off a freshening last week and gave up position at the start though put in a fierce rally with a late close. The challenge here as he must step against older.

#2 ROCKIN KAPHONE finds a driver change to J. Franco that should keep the number high as he returns with some subtle class relief and more subtle trip on 10/13. B. Bates had been in the bike for those recent starts and returns with #3 CHECKME, one that has races for a shard though will give up recency making this first start in October and still maiden eligible as are others draw outside and returning from the 10/22 common race – upgrading #10 CCCULATER of that set. 

#4 BOBS TIME projects to improve off the 10/20 effort and from the group returning from the 10/20 common race. The more obvious from that event, #7 ALWAYS A WARRIOR should be in the right spot to pick up the win as he improved with the class drop and overall consistency should carry here.

#6 BARRY J finds the class change with the circuit switch and appears well placed for these connections to compete and looks to regain some confidence with the changes.

It is worth following the early part of the card and the runners from Race 5 on 10/20 as #9 INCREDIBLE BOMBAY returns from that race and one that should be under the radar while capable of upside from the trip last week and back numbers that fits on par to win. 

The honest early pace should play to the trip for #5 TONCREDIBLYFASTFORU and C. Stewart. #4 FILLISTER PHOTO earned a follow on 10/13 where the placement suggested a prep against older males. She projected to improve and took a slight step forward on 10/20, a race where the top two were together at the wire and top five in a blanket; something to note with others returning from that event here. Value should stick with FILLISTER PHOTO given the driver change and the finishing position, something that should carry to #7 WAVZEKA as well.

The outside group return from a common race, Race 7 on 10/20. #9 VELOCITY MCSWEETS should be the shorter of that group if not favored though the overall effort was in line with #8 KIZZMELIKEUMISSME and even #10 FRISKIE JOLIE as they present upside and value. 

#7 LEVEE WAS DRY was GREEN on debut starting with the SLOG and unable to get position (TACTIC-) while showing a MOVE and overall interest to suggest they can IMPROVE with experience. Number wise his 77 OptixFIG is not far off the others in the field that have shown their ability. That includes both #2 SHORTSTOP setting a soft pace last month as well as #4 HALMSTED here at Keeneland 19-days ago stalking a Slow early Slow late pace and drifting in the lane. 

#3 RUNANDSCORE is listed as the fourth choice on the morning line and arguably the most likely winner. His OptixFIG have remained consistent and competitive given the class of competition. He recorded a B OptixGRADE in the 9/21 HS Indy MSW race in a BLANKET at the wire. He stepped up circuit wise here on 10/8 and chased WIDE though primarily overmatched requiring a DROP, the right change as they return here.  

On debut, #4 BETTE DAVIS made a positive PRERACE+ appearance on the track and stumbled (TROUBLES+) coming out of the gate. From there she showed run making a MOVE and continued on after the wire (GALLOP+) with the overall IMPROVE visuals as she returns from that effort for this second start. 

As far morning line favorite, #6 SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY fits that role, however she will have to work to win this race given the distance and pace scenario. She can be tough on the lead, though does not project to find herself "lone" or with a soft pace given the complexion of the field. #8 ALEXA LOU is unproven around two turns, though in terms of form cycle should be sitting on a peak effort. She has a win at the mile, albeit one-turn when breaking her maiden on the second start, on November 12th last year as a juvenile. She returned off the long 287-day layoff with a big effort, a new top 94 OptixFIG in her seasonal debut back in August at Ellis Park. The connections were ambitious though showing some confidence in the Dogwood (G3) where the class and timing wheeling back in less than 30-days (lacking recovery of a top) for that start. She has been freshened for this race retains Leparoux and if she takes to the distance here she makes herself a contender. 

#4 DAZZLIN' DICTATOR earned a follow from her BTL debut last month at CD. That race came during the meet where Wilkes was COLD and this filly after a SLOG made a MOVE through TRAFFIC and continued to GALLOP+ out after the wire. She should benefit from the experience, added ground and versatile to handle the surface switch. 

#1 SHE'S BULLETPROOF makes a belated return to the turf and does so in a reasonable spot. She has consistent form and fresh (41-days) in her form cycle. Her turf for stacks up with today's OFR and should be able to find the right pace (Fire/34 SpeedRate) for Rispoli to work a trip. 

On overall class and speed, #2 FLAT ON taking the significant class drop, holds an edge over the others, especially the more experience types in this race. #5 RANGER JOE has yet to show he is on the level of his main rival, though in fairness he has yet to have his best chance to race. He was very GREEN in his debut last month and showed run (especially late CLOSE) with visuals to suggest he can IMPROVE.

2-HOLDEN STEADY-Might lead throughout from better post

5-FOX VALLEY TREASON-Has dead aim late

1-FRANKIEPARK-Never far off the pace

5-TELSTAR-Knocking at the door all meet

2-CAMMIL’S MONEY MAN-Seems to be meeting a bit easier

6-DUM LUCK MOOSS-Dropper maybe a late share

2-ASHLEES SILVER GUY-First Lasix; dangerous speed

7-DAY OF LEGENDS-Finished second this level two back

1-ALMOST GONE-Casey chose this on of Terry’s three

4-GORGEOUS BIG GUY-Reeled off five straight wins

1-FOX VALLEY JULIAN-Second to “Big Guy” last three

5-SUPER SHARK-Ignore last; big chance at big price

7-LOUS PRIVATE EYE-Could make it three in a row

1-TRU CASH-Tough post crushed his dreams in last

4-FIREBALL’S PRIDE-Might get lead to himself

8-FOX VALLEY DURHAM-Tough post makes him slim pick

7-GUITAR MAN-Proved he can win from outside post

4-DOCTOR CRUISE-Was impressive maiden winner last out

6-YOU CAN NEVER TELL-How on the pace throughout

1-MAZIN BLAZIN-Inside post makes the difference

4-FOX VALLEY PRESLEY-Does seem faster than his rivals

9-ISLE COACH-Beaten favorite can make amends

6-BARRY J-Indy shipper meets easier; L2

7-ALWAYS A WARRIOR-Maybe grinds out the victory

2-FRONTIER METIS-Meets somewhat easier

5-LYONS MIKI-Been in great form for months

6-TONCREDIBLYFASTFORU-Just missed at odds-on

10-FRISKE JOLIE-Had tough trip in Hawthorne return