Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 VINNY LOU was compromised with the outside draw and extra wide trip that followed in the 10/20 common race. C. Stewart lands here to further intent noting the shift from morning line favorite #4 MR. SLEEZE. 

#3 BROOKLETS BANNER has not been seen since 10/13, a day where they were upgraded from the trip against both the flow and bias playing against them as the favorite – rival #7 PADDY MURPHY raced with the profile. #2 SEE YA WRITE N should hold their form coming right back from the common race last Saturday. 

#2 LIFEISBUTADREAM turning in a sneaky strong race here last Friday night. He was taken out the back early and from there a BTL move with ground loss making a strong late run to the wire. #6 IWANNAROCKNROLL also upgraded from their trip last week and given the handling the driver change to C. Stewart is very notable. 

With the right trip and top effort #2 BIG FLICKA can return to winning ways and compete with today’s group. She had an excuse behind #9 CHICKABELL back on 10/7 and had a subtle trip and timing with the return on 10/15 and has held her own against #5 HYPEYOURBESTIEUP. C. Stewart appeared to have some options in this race and remains with #1 FOX VALLEY REEVA one that has shown improvement this season and comes into this race sharp off the place finish behind much the best, open length winner, Fox Valley Sadie (Race 6) last Saturday. 

#4 STAND BY YOUR MAN was sitting on a peak effort and ran to it picking up the win in the common race on Night of Champions. Peaked for that day she will look to hold her form here though faces some solid rivals from that night including the Grummel pair #2 WHISKEY LOU closing in as the favorite and #10 CALYPSO MOON. The timing and price should be right with #3 PEEKABOO SAL. She also turning in a credible effort all things considered and has shown progression race to race. She comes back today with a driver change and that could signal intend just to mix things up and look to pick up that first win of the meet. 

#1 FOX VALLEY SADIE rebounded from an unfortunate excuse on Night of Champions with the dominant win to regain confidence last week. Class wise #2 FOX VALLEY TATUM has a test at this level, though coming off a BTL effort earning a follow last week is at the least a mention here at the price. #8 ADALECIA is less “obvious” compared to the rivals on her outside, #9 STEVIE MAE and #10 FIRST OF HER NAME, though has held her own against those two fillies this season. ADALECIA also returns from an “excuse” and BTL overall effort last week and picking up a driver change after some crucial tactical errors in that trip can suggest intent and a move forward here. 

To anyone watching the #2 BOMBAY PARKWAY race last week (10/22) an argument can be made that she was much the best and unlucky with the trip that resulted in a fourth place finish last week. #8 SENORITA MOUSE comes back to a level where she can compete and away from tougher competition where she was racing as a legit longshot this month. #4 WHO SAYS has form from last season that stacks up on par for this level and with T. Seekman that could see her step up in this second start of the cycle. 

#2 EAGLE ON A HILL has consistent and current form to present a slight edge in this group and back from the 10/20 common race. #1 MANNYS TOO SPECIAL overall does not have any strong edge, reflected in the morning line, though has had some subtle trips this season and buried competitive race under similar conditions going back to the local debut in September. If #6 AMERICA’S FLEET is to find his competitive form, this would be the time and place. He will make his second start of the cycle and in one of the softer conditions, level of competition.

#9 KEEN CATHY is logical as the favorite and horse to beat though she will require that edge to overcome the draw and trip as a filly that does not show much early speed and makes that late run. The class change alone could and should allow her to show more tactical speed. That same consideration on pace extends to #8 RAGS TO RICHES one that has held her form this season though appears to need ideal conditions to win. #7 CAN’T STAY TO LONG finds class relief from the most recent starts and was competitive under similar conditions here back on 9/17.

As far as the maiden group: #5 TIME TO RYDE has yet to turn in “bad” effort this season and has been giving up maturity as a juvenile against older. #1 SCORECARD LILLY presents upside as a lightly raced three year old filly. That upside carries from the 10/21 common race when she was taken back early at the gate and finished with a strong late move, one that is not seen when looking at the pacing line alone. 

This is a competitive race and place to look for some separation on value. #4 JEWELSTOWN has been running under similar conditions with a higher par than today's event. #2 BRUCE BANNER has select races that fit and buried form where he is further upgraded with the shift back to the one turn distance. 

Of the horses with experience (drawn in main body of the field) #1 FORT THOMAS exits a strong, productive race at KY Downs on 9/9, a race that has produced three MSW next out winners from the four (the winner, Double Your Money finished off the board in the Bourbon G2) horses that have run back. #5 J BIRD TIME appears to hold more upside off his debut last month at CD. He made a positive PRERACE+ appearance on the track and in-running making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW.

#7 YERWANTHERE has a look right back under similar conditions returning from the two month break. Going back August 26th she turned in a BTL effort after the SLOG making a WIDE MOVE and late CLOSE all against the dynamic/X_FLOW. #1 GIMME MO BABY could hold as the controlling speed and could be some value with that exacta combination. 

Giving #7 WAR AT SEA another look as he has been well-intended though unable to work trips this season at the graded stakes level. A big part of that was due to rider, V. Espinoza and noted a key rider change to M. Smith. Not only has Smith had success aboard in the past the change suggests intent and that trainer R. Ellis recognizing the trips and TACTIC- has not allowed this horse to run his race. 

5-ALLEGHENY HANOVER-Good form; last was better than it looked

1-FOX VALLEY FALCON-Wired them in last; can again

6-VINNY LOU-Better post helps chances

3-BROOKLET’S BANNER-Can wire them in 3^rd start of the year

2-SEE YA WRITE N-Fought hard in losing effort

4-GUSSYS TRUMP CARD-Made up seven lengths in last

6-IWANNAROCKNROLL-Needed last after 3 months away

7-DUNE DAME-Maybe found her spot

1-BOOTSY BOMBAY-Move to the rail likely big help

9-CHICKABELL-Tough post but 8 races, 6 wins, 2 seconds

5-HYPEYOURBESTIEUP-Almost as sharp as top pick

4-PLATINUM SHARK-Gets close with right trip

2-WHISKEY LOU-Just missed in Fox Valley Flan Final

4-STAND BY YOUR MAN-Edged out top pick in last
10-CALYPSO MOON-Figures prominently despite post

1-FOX VALLEY SADIE-Can overpower them late

10-FIRST OF HER NAME-Dominated last two

5-ILLINI BELLE-Haven’t seen the best of her yet

9-STEVIE MAE-Powerful winner last time out

2-BOMBAY PARKWAY-Just missed in far tougher

6-ONE R ANDIS STAR-Wired last at odds-on

1-SOME DANCING STAR-Won last with perfect trip

7-SPIRIT SHADOW-Goes for third straight win

10-FARMERS ONLY-Slight drop does the trick

5-ARTSPIRE-Just missed at 57-1

9-KEEN CATHY-Overcomes outside post with class

4-XENA’S FOXIE-tired fighting for lead in last

2-ROCKIN ARLENE-Last showed promise

#8 LAW PROFESSOR fits here in the Fayette (G2) on class (graded stakes winner), speed (consistent numbers on par), pace for today's race shape and track profile as well as form making his second start off the layoff. Trip is key in this race as the pace appears contentious, the "Fire" rating on OptixPLOT. That Contention is paired with a lower 15 SpeedRate, a scenario that requires tactical speed and class. #9 O'CONNOR requires pace and trip where he must get himself involved earlier in the race, something that has played against him on the win end. Some intent appears in play as he returns to the two-turn distance in this current form cycle and picking up a live rider in Gaffalione.