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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun October 29th, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
On current form, #6 BOURBON BOSS figures as the favorite and the horse to beat. Others could step up with the first time starters as well as #7 WISTUCKY one that has been waiting in the wings for a return to CD. Going back to the debut, he had some adversity with TRAFFIC and has continued to keep up the works since that event. #8 CLOTH OF GOLD also could present upside in this second start. On debut, he made a positive PRERACE+ physical appearance and chased WIDE (post 12) behind the eventual open length pacesetting winner, Khanate with the field spaced out at the wire - a common theme during the Keeneland meet. 

Hawthorne Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 FOX VALLEY CARLIN is upgraded with a slight change in class and returning from the higher claiming event on 10/22 making a strong late close. #2 TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER holds the edge coming back from the common race on 10/22. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 FOX VALLEY EXPLOIT was over her head against the group on 10/14 and this is a more reasonable level for her abilities. #5 TELL THE DREAM comes back from the 10/22 common race with excess ground loss and overall competitive noting #4 ROCK IT OUT had the more favorable, setup type trip and #1 LORRAINE SMOKE was able to save ground.

Hawthorne Race 3

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 TALK ABOUT VALOR does not have to face On Higher Ground today and holds a call edge in this spot and has been competitive winning under similar conditions this season. 

Hawthorne Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Leaning on two of the three S. Searle trainees with #1 LOUSRAPTOR finding a more favorable spot and requiring class relief from the Night of Champions group; #5 LOULITA is preferred given the wide closing run over #2 LOUZOTIC returning from the recent common race. 

Hawthorne Race 5

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 TEETER TROTTER is upgraded from the group returning from the 10/20 common race and looks to have intent for this second start of the meet given the driver change. #7 ZENA LOU also finds a driver change in addition to the change in class where if she stays flat, stays competitive. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 GET E UP was live and put up a top effort behind He’zzz A Wise Sky on Night of Champions (10/14) that projected some regression when he returned in the 10/22 common race and should cycle back to a top here. #5 FOX VALLEY GEMINI also could be in the right time and place for a top this season.

Hawthorne Race 7

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 LOVE TAP HANOVER appears live in this spot and with C. Stewart in the bike. #6 RJ ROCKS was dominant in the win earlier this month and should hold his form returning here. 

Hawthorne Race 8

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 ICE SPLITTER is deserving of a big look coming rival back off a BTL effort and against older in his local debut last week – a move forward, and more tactical speed can be projected. #9 LOU ADONIS also coming back from a BTL MOVE on 10/22 though finds along with #8 FOX VALLEY CORSO the step up here, whereas #2 MARIAH LOU and #6 AINT NO MOJO should benefit from the class drop. 

Hawthorne Race 9

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Sophomore #3 FOX VALEY CAYMAN earned a follow with a BTL effort parked widest throughout and moves up with today’s class change. #4 MARSHALL MALONE was compromised with the draw and suffered an extra wide trip two weeks ago at the level. Coming right back, #6 JULERICA finished in a blanket at the wire last week and BTL effort makes him a player right back under similar conditions.

Hawthorne Race 10

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 GRACEFUL HORIZON turned in an honest effort last week though was slightly overmatched and should appreciate the subtle change in class. Common rival #10 DANDY’S MMM is given no favors at the draw though did not have a chance with the trip last week and upgraded here and with the driver change. #11 JD’S QUEEN LORI also requires some racing luck to draw in and with the draw does she make the race, though given a flow upgrade coming back from the common race against some of today’s rivals last week, 10/22. 

Hawthorne Race 11

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 JERI SUE fits here and with leading driver, C. Stewart. #4 GENIE INA BOTTLE was stick on the outside last week and that played a roll in her trip and outcome where she comes back today with a better draw and can improve. #3 SILVERSHOE CHIXY gives up recency, though doing back to 10/7 she did not have an ideal trip and BTL making a WIDE move all things considered. 

Santa Anita Race 1

Post Time 3:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 MARGOT'S BOY appeared to be "given" the 9/29 race as a PREP coming off another layoff. It is encouraging they return in 30-days given the recent layoff history and with some positive changes such as distance back to a route. A rider change is also in play and noting the front wraps were added last out and a removal could further intent. 

Santa Anita Race 4

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The visuals from #5 BARTON STRONG validate the speed figure from the debut, a number that fits with this field and on par with the lateral class change. The BTL effort all around is noted though both horse and rider (TACTIC-) should benefit from the initial experience. 

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun October 29th, 2023

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Peter's Simulcast Plays

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
10 Run Jalen Run - 7/2 6 Bourbon Boss - 3/1 3 Coalpower - 10/1

Churchill Downs Race 2

Post Time 12:30 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
4 Orange Diablo - 5/2 2 Bowstreet - 6/1 1 Linzer - 3/1

Churchill Downs Race 3

Post Time 1:00 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
11 Coastal Invasion - 7/2 10 Chilled - 8/1 9 Clear Voice - 5/1

Churchill Downs Race 4

Post Time 1:30 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
10 Big Dreamer - 6/1 9 Turino - 7/2 11 Without Cause - 4/1

Churchill Downs Race 5

Post Time 2:01 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Tennessee - 9/2 2 Track Phantom - 6/1 8 Resilience - 5/1

Churchill Downs Race 6

Post Time 2:31 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
11 Barbratina - 4/1 6 Sharp Tune - 9/2 2 Mya's Halo - 6/1

Churchill Downs Race 7

Post Time 3:01 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
6 Snead - 3/1 4 Numero Siete - 4/1 8 Honky Tonk Highway - 6/1

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post Time 3:33 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
3 V V's Dream - 6/5 5 Shimmering Allure - 6/1 7 Gin Gin - 9/2

Churchill Downs Race 9

Post Time 4:05 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Just Steel - 3/1 7 Iridescent - 6/1 8 Sponge Bath - 8/1

Churchill Downs Race 10

Post Time 4:35 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
3 Northern Flame - 4/1 4 Moonlight - 5/2 5 Parchment Party - 5/1

Churchill Downs Race 11

Post Time 5:05 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
10 Pin Up Betty - 8/1 4 Sassy Princess - 9/2 1 My Favorite Girl - 6/1

Mountaineer Park Race 1

Post Time 6:00 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
6 Southern Will - 2/1 2 Professional - 7/2 3 Justin Front - 8/1

Mountaineer Park Race 2

Post Time 6:25 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
3 Be the Change - 5/2 7 Ames Mister - 7/2 5 Doctor Lee - 9/2

Mountaineer Park Race 3

Post Time 6:50 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
5 This One Can Run - 3/1 1 Gilded Quest - 5/2 6 Lady Ocean - 7/2

Mountaineer Park Race 4

Post Time 7:15 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Mentirosa - 1/1 8 Ramblin Chrome - 8/1 4 Estilo Favorito - 3/1

Mountaineer Park Race 5

Post Time 7:40 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Strong Attitude - 5/2 2 Stealth Mission - 2/1 6 Straus's Place - 4/1

Mountaineer Park Race 6

Post Time 8:05 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
6 Mambo Kitten - 2/1 3 Team Hot Line - 8/5 1 Market of Stocks - 6/1

Mountaineer Park Race 7

Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
5 Midnight Alibi - 8/1 1 Parker - 4/1 7 Political - 8/1

Mountaineer Park Race 8

Post Time 8:55 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
7 Summer Storm - 4/5 8 Bella Basora - 9/2 9 Gold Pass - 8/1
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun October 29th, 2023

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Stakes Spotlight

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post Time 3:33 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 V V'S DREAM has the edge on foundation and stakes experience with strong numbers and has herself as the one to beat. In terms of the lightly raced runners, many hold upside: #4 WEST SUNSET was dominant on debut; B+ OptixGRADE paired with a 87 OptixFIG while overcoming the outside post and X_WIDE trip that followed. #6 TWIRLING GOOD TIME also given a B+ OptixGRADE on debut and solid 91 OptixFIG, though visually there are some questions for today's route, two-turn distance.

Churchill Downs Race 10

Post Time 4:35 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 PARCHMENT PARTY might just have one start under his belt though the manner he handled himself on debut looked like a seasoned professional racehorse. He came out on the track making a positive PRERACE+ appearance, a trait for B. Mott runners. His in-running performance was just as eye-catching overcoming a rough/TROUBLE_S start (something of note as he can rate tactically, not a confirmed closer as the running line might suggests) showing some GRIT making a MOVE through a tight spot along the inside and continued to run on/GALLOP+ after the wire. He is already experienced over today's course and distance and has remained at CD since, keeping up his training and to prepare for this graded stakes race. 

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun October 29th, 2023

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Fox Valley Carlin 2 Tookadiveoffdipper 3 Caviart Richmond

Hawthorne Race 2

Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Rock It Out 5 Tell The Dream 3 Fox Valley Exploit

Hawthorne Race 3

Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Rockyroad Aldo 5 Perlucky 6 Talk About Valor

Hawthorne Race 4

Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Loulita 2 Louzotic 6 Justa Hintof Spice

Hawthorne Race 5

Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Xena Lou 9 Maple Grove Mangin 1 Snap Krackle Ntrot

Hawthorne Race 6

Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Fox Valley Gemini 4 Clearchoice De Vie 6 Play Me Rock

Hawthorne Race 7

Analysis by Jim Miller
6 RJ Rocks 1 Sonic Flare 3 Yankee Bounty

Hawthorne Race 8

Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Mariah Lou 6 Aint No Mojo 4 Its Swan Time

Hawthorne Race 9

Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Fox Valley Cayman 2 M I Rockin 4 Marshall Malone

Hawthorne Race 10

Analysis by Jim Miller
1 My Daddys Revenge 7 Graceful Horizon 4 My Uptowne Girl

Hawthorne Race 11

Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Lucky Dottie 3 Silvershoe Chixy 10 Found My Rock
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun October 29th, 2023

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 -TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER 6 -FOX VALLEY CARLIN 5 -BRANDON HANOVER

2-TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER-Led most of last

6-FOX VALLEY CARLIN-More competitive this level

5-BRANDON HANOVER-Finishes fast; gets close

Hawthorne Race 2

Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 -ROCK IT OUT 3 -FOX VALLEY EXPLOIT 5 -TELL THE DREAM

4-ROCK IT OUT-Won 2 of 3 this level here

3-FOX VALLEY EXPLOIT-Always in the hunt

5-TELL THE DREAM-Won 2 local Opens in September

Hawthorne Race 3

Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 -TALK ABOUT VALOR 5 -PERLUCKY 4 -ANNAS LUCKY STAR

6-TALK ABOUT VALOR-Gets back on winning track

5-PERLUCKY-Fights top pick for the lead

4-ANNAS LUCKY STAR-Veteran mare always figures

Hawthorne Race 4

Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 -LOULITA 7 -NEVER MIND N 6 -JUSTA HINTOF SPICE

5-LOULITA-Finds another gear late

7-NEVER MIND N-Capable of leading throughout

6-JUSTA HINTOF SPICE-Finishes with a rush

Hawthorne Race 5

Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 -SHE PIRATE 3 -STYLISH GRACE 1 -SNAP CRACKLE NTROT 9 -MAPLE GROVE MANGIN

5-SHE PIRATE-Can wire them right back

3-STYLISH GRACE-Missed a start but impressively won prior

1-SNAP CRACKLE NTROT-Maybe fastest of these

9-MAPLE GROVE MANGIN-Can overcome outside post

Hawthorne Race 6

Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 -PLAY ME ROCK 5 -FOX VALLEY GEMINI 4 -CLEARCHOICE DE VIE

6-PLAY ME ROCK-Can edge by late

5-FOX VALLEY GEMINI-Never far off pace

4-CLEARCHOICE DE VIE-Maybe best of the speed

 

Hawthorne Race 7

Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 -YANKEE BOUNTY 6 -R J ROCKS 4 -LOVE TAP HANOVER

3-YANKEE BOUNTY-Might be right pace set up

6-R J ROCKS-Fastest if he fires

4-LOVE TAP HANOVER-Needed last after months away

Hawthorne Race 8

Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 -EL CHAMP’ONN 6 -AIN’T NO MOJO 8 -FOX VALLEY CORSO

3-EL CHAMP’ONN-Could lead from flag fall to finish

6-AIN’T NO MOJO-Flies late; won this level early October

8-FOX VALLEY CORSO-Sleeper will finish fast

Hawthorne Race 9

Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 -FOX VALLEY CAYMAN 6 -JULERICA 2 -M I ROCKIN

3-FOX VALLEY CAYMAN-Meets easier /post position relief

6-JULERICA-Been just missing

2-M I ROCKIN-Moves up but won 3 of 4 here

Hawthorne Race 10

Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 -MY DADDYS REVENGE 7 -GRACEFUL HORIZON 10 -DANDY’S MNM 6 -LOOK KIMBO

1-MY DADDYS REVENGE-Great form all year; can beat older

7-GRACEFUL HORIZON-Faced better since getting here

10-DANDY’S MNM -Tough post but certainly figures

6-LOOK KIMBO-Likely threatens late

Hawthorne Race 11

Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 -SILVERSHOE CHIXY 7 -JERI SUE 2 -LUCKY DOTTIE

3-SILVERSHOE CHIXY-Dropper likely holds the edge

7-JERI SUE-Indy shipper figures prominently

2-LUCKY DOTTIE-Possible speed threat