« 10/28/2023 | 10/30/2023 » |
Sun October 29th, 2023 |
Download as PDF |
Emily's Analysis
Churchill Downs Race 1
Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 1
#6 FOX VALLEY CARLIN is upgraded with a slight change in
class and returning from the higher claiming event on 10/22 making a strong
late close. #2 TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER holds the edge coming back from the common
race on 10/22.
Hawthorne Race 2
#3 FOX VALLEY EXPLOIT was over her head against the group on
10/14 and this is a more reasonable level for her abilities. #5 TELL THE DREAM
comes back from the 10/22 common race with excess ground loss and overall
competitive noting #4 ROCK IT OUT had the more favorable, setup type trip and
#1 LORRAINE SMOKE was able to save ground.
Hawthorne Race 3
#6 TALK ABOUT VALOR does not have to face On Higher Ground
today and holds a call edge in this spot and has been competitive winning under
similar conditions this season.
Hawthorne Race 4
Leaning on two of the three S. Searle trainees with #1
LOUSRAPTOR finding a more favorable spot and requiring class relief from the
Night of Champions group; #5 LOULITA is preferred given the wide closing run over
#2 LOUZOTIC returning from the recent common race.
Hawthorne Race 5
#4 TEETER TROTTER is upgraded from the group returning from
the 10/20 common race and looks to have intent for this second start of the meet
given the driver change. #7 ZENA LOU also finds a driver change in addition to
the change in class where if she stays flat, stays competitive.
Hawthorne Race 6
#3 GET E UP was live and put up a top effort behind He’zzz A
Wise Sky on Night of Champions (10/14) that projected some regression when he
returned in the 10/22 common race and should cycle back to a top here. #5 FOX
VALLEY GEMINI also could be in the right time and place for a top this season.
Hawthorne Race 7
#4 LOVE TAP HANOVER appears live in this spot and with C.
Stewart in the bike. #6 RJ ROCKS was dominant in the win earlier this month and
should hold his form returning here.
Hawthorne Race 8
#5 ICE SPLITTER is deserving of a big look coming rival back
off a BTL effort and against older in his local debut last week – a move forward,
and more tactical speed can be projected. #9 LOU ADONIS also coming back from a
BTL MOVE on 10/22 though finds along with #8 FOX VALLEY CORSO the step up here,
whereas #2 MARIAH LOU and #6 AINT NO MOJO should benefit from the class drop.
Hawthorne Race 9
Sophomore #3 FOX VALEY CAYMAN earned a follow with a BTL
effort parked widest throughout and moves up with today’s class change. #4
MARSHALL MALONE was compromised with the draw and suffered an extra wide trip
two weeks ago at the level. Coming right back, #6 JULERICA finished in a
blanket at the wire last week and BTL effort makes him a player right back under
similar conditions.
Hawthorne Race 10
#7 GRACEFUL HORIZON turned in an honest effort last week
though was slightly overmatched and should appreciate the subtle change in
class. Common rival #10 DANDY’S MMM is given no favors at the draw though did
not have a chance with the trip last week and upgraded here and with the driver
change. #11 JD’S QUEEN LORI also requires some racing luck to draw in and with
the draw does she make the race, though given a flow upgrade coming back from
the common race against some of today’s rivals last week, 10/22.
Hawthorne Race 11
#7 JERI SUE fits here and with leading driver, C. Stewart. #4
GENIE INA BOTTLE was stick on the outside last week and that played a roll in
her trip and outcome where she comes back today with a better draw and can
improve. #3 SILVERSHOE CHIXY gives up recency, though doing back to 10/7 she
did not have an ideal trip and BTL making a WIDE move all things considered.
Santa Anita Race 1
Post Time 3:00 PM CST
#2 MARGOT'S BOY appeared to be "given" the 9/29 race as a PREP coming off another layoff. It is encouraging they return in 30-days given the recent layoff history and with some positive changes such as distance back to a route. A rider change is also in play and noting the front wraps were added last out and a removal could further intent.
Santa Anita Race 4
Post Time 4:30 PM CST
The visuals from #5 BARTON STRONG validate the speed figure from the debut, a number that fits with this field and on par with the lateral class change. The BTL effort all around is noted though both horse and rider (TACTIC-) should benefit from the initial experience.
Sun October 29th, 2023 |
Download as PDF |
Peter's Simulcast Plays
Churchill Downs Race 1
Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 2
Post Time 12:30 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 3
Post Time 1:00 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 4
Post Time 1:30 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 5
Post Time 2:01 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 6
Post Time 2:31 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 7
Post Time 3:01 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 8
Post Time 3:33 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 9
Post Time 4:05 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 10
Post Time 4:35 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 11
Post Time 5:05 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 1
Post Time 6:00 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 2
Post Time 6:25 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 3
Post Time 6:50 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 4
Post Time 7:15 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 5
Post Time 7:40 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 6
Post Time 8:05 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 7
Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 8
Post Time 8:55 PM CST
Sun October 29th, 2023 |
Download as PDF |
Stakes Spotlight
Churchill Downs Race 8
Post Time 3:33 PM CST
#3 V V'S DREAM has the edge on foundation and stakes experience with strong numbers and has herself as the one to beat. In terms of the lightly raced runners, many hold upside: #4 WEST SUNSET was dominant on debut; B+ OptixGRADE paired with a 87 OptixFIG while overcoming the outside post and X_WIDE trip that followed. #6 TWIRLING GOOD TIME also given a B+ OptixGRADE on debut and solid 91 OptixFIG, though visually there are some questions for today's route, two-turn distance.
Churchill Downs Race 10
Post Time 4:35 PM CST
#5 PARCHMENT PARTY might just have one start under his belt though the manner he handled himself on debut looked like a seasoned professional racehorse. He came out on the track making a positive PRERACE+ appearance, a trait for B. Mott runners. His in-running performance was just as eye-catching overcoming a rough/TROUBLE_S start (something of note as he can rate tactically, not a confirmed closer as the running line might suggests) showing some GRIT making a MOVE through a tight spot along the inside and continued to run on/GALLOP+ after the wire. He is already experienced over today's course and distance and has remained at CD since, keeping up his training and to prepare for this graded stakes race.
Sun October 29th, 2023 |
Download as PDF |
Jim's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Hawthorne Race 2
Hawthorne Race 3
Hawthorne Race 4
Hawthorne Race 5
Hawthorne Race 6
Hawthorne Race 7
Hawthorne Race 8
Hawthorne Race 9
Hawthorne Race 10
Hawthorne Race 11
Sun October 29th, 2023 |
Download as PDF |
Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
2-TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER-Led most of last
6-FOX VALLEY CARLIN-More competitive this level
5-BRANDON HANOVER-Finishes fast; gets close
Hawthorne Race 2
4-ROCK IT OUT-Won 2 of 3 this level here
3-FOX VALLEY EXPLOIT-Always in the hunt
5-TELL THE DREAM-Won 2 local Opens in September
Hawthorne Race 3
6-TALK ABOUT VALOR-Gets back on winning track
5-PERLUCKY-Fights top pick for the lead
4-ANNAS LUCKY STAR-Veteran mare always figures
Hawthorne Race 4
5-LOULITA-Finds another gear late
7-NEVER MIND N-Capable of leading throughout
6-JUSTA HINTOF SPICE-Finishes with a rush
Hawthorne Race 5
5-SHE PIRATE-Can wire them right back
3-STYLISH GRACE-Missed a start but impressively won prior
1-SNAP CRACKLE NTROT-Maybe fastest of these
Hawthorne Race 6
6-PLAY ME ROCK-Can edge by late
5-FOX VALLEY GEMINI-Never far off pace
4-CLEARCHOICE DE VIE-Maybe best of the speed
Hawthorne Race 7
3-YANKEE BOUNTY-Might be right pace set up
6-R J ROCKS-Fastest if he fires
4-LOVE TAP HANOVER-Needed last after months away
Hawthorne Race 8
3-EL CHAMP’ONN-Could
lead from flag fall to finish
6-AIN’T NO
MOJO-Flies late; won this level early October
8-FOX
VALLEY CORSO-Sleeper will finish fast
Hawthorne Race 9
3-FOX
VALLEY CAYMAN-Meets easier /post position relief
6-JULERICA-Been
just missing
2-M I
ROCKIN-Moves up but won 3 of 4 here
Hawthorne Race 10
1-MY DADDYS
REVENGE-Great form all year; can beat older
7-GRACEFUL
HORIZON-Faced better since getting here
10-DANDY’S
MNM -Tough post but certainly figures
6-LOOK
KIMBO-Likely threatens late
Hawthorne Race 11
3-SILVERSHOE
CHIXY-Dropper likely holds the edge
7-JERI
SUE-Indy shipper figures prominently
2-LUCKY
DOTTIE-Possible speed threat