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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu July 4th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Delaware Park Race 7

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The connections have been looking for the right spot for #5 LORD DONEGAL and could find it here. They had tried to run in a grass event at DEL on 6/26 though unable to draw in off the AE took the other spot. Both races this year should provide fitness (especially on the quick turnaround!) and keying off the 12/14 Turfway race (IMPROVE) gives him a look off in this spot along with prior efforts that fit on par. 

Ellis Park Race 3

Post Time 12:49 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 BAG LADY makes a lot of sense on the DROP with the much required class relief to match her current form. #11 ITALIAN IVY has a lot of hurdles and must improve on numbers for this field to compete. With that said, she turned in a strong B+ BTL effort on debut at TP and off the visuals last out can move up on the TURF. 

Ellis Park Race 4

Post Time 1:21 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 NOT THIS BOY was very live and dominant (B+) breaking his maiden on debut last year. He required the time off before returning late May for a belated second start and held his own against winners with a BTL effort making a WIDE MOVE and still CLOSE-ing to the wire. 

Ellis Park Race 8

Post Time 3:19 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

In a competitive turf allowance, the recent form and trips for #7 IRONSIDES. Oliver has struggled this year in KY though a solid trainer to get on track at any point. The timing could be right in this second of the cycle and returning from a sneaky BTL effort last out at HS Indy, the type of trip that is tough to dismiss and pass up next out at a price. 

Ellis Park Race 9

Post Time 3:48 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 PISCOTTA earned a follow off the BTL debut at KEE racing with TRAFFIC TROUBLE showing run with a MOVE and still late/CLOSE to the wire. DeVaux has been sending out live and should have tote attention that would be no surprise under the 9-2 ML. #9 LEO TORO could be a little less obvious with her BTL back in March and has been freshened since the CD second start WIDE trip.

Woodbine Race 3

Post Time 4:53 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 MAKE NO MISTAKE was the lone mare in the 6/8 field and finds a considerable drop in class with today's par. She turned in a competitive effort and progressive pattern in the May return races that should translate to a rebound here. 

Woodbine Race 5

Post Time 5:57 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

In terms of the horses with experience (though in this case could look to a FTS) #4 GOOD NEWS MONEY looked to require the class DROP from the MSW races last season. The change gave her a look on 5/24, however also required the race that day and compromised with the SLOG from the rail. She has the current form in this cycle, third off, and improving numbers to return to a top while retaining Kimura.

Woodbine Race 8

Post Time 7:27 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

While #11 LOOKS LUCKY TO ME fits logically here as the expected favorite there are a couple of runners that have yet to show their best and could step up with that effort here.

#2 ANNIE CORNIFICIA F improved with each start last season earning a follow (IMPROVE) from the debut. She showed run in the return on 5/10 in what appeared a prep with a less than ideal ride and was against the dynamic (VS early/late) on 5/30. 

#7 BRIT also earned an IMPROVE off the debut on 5/10 and subtle subtle trips in the two starts that followed though to her credit has shown a move forward and physicality for the return to the TURF.