Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is a spot where on numbers there is not much between the field top to bottom. The preference will side with a lightly raced and established runner in this group:

#4 CAPTAIN’S FLAG makes some changes for this third start and second start back off the layoff. He backed up after making a RUSH for position last out at HS Indy though did so into a Fast early pace and can be upgraded on race flow along with the class and distance change.

#5 SECRET HONOR is that “established” runner he has run the most in this field and the only older horse in the group. While he has the two starts at this level (not necessarily a “new” face) he is making a change in distance and race par. The times he has run under a similar race par were his most competitive to date both on numbers and GRADES.

#2 TALLAPOOSA is worth a mention for the connections and the drop for this second start. Going back to his debut just two weeks ago, he might have lost his race in the GATE before it started and making contact with the stall (TROUBLE_S) at the break. Intention also questionable that day as his stablemate Willie Bird (stepping up in class on a 7 day turnaround) set the pace and finished second. The race par is closer to a lateral move for TALLAPOOSA and a slight step up for #3 RED RIZZLER despite the change in claiming tag as the connections are looking for the right spot for him to compete. Class is the big test for #1 MALIBU BRAD stepping back up off the claim though has early speed from the inside to try and take them as far as he can on the lead.  

#2 WILDWOOD SICILIAN appears live in this spot for the third start off the layoff, one of two in for S. Becker and racing today for the claiming tag. The move comes with progressive form returning in this third start off the layoff and a return to Hawthorne looking for a win. He was competitive last season at the higher level with the minor finishes and has had further local success in limited starts as a juvenile along with C. Emigh aboard.

The pace is noted for WILDWOOD SICILIAN with today’s lower SpeedRate and drawn inside the other speed, #6 ABSOLUTE CHAOS. The race shape is also noted for S. Becker stablemate #3 ETERNALLY GRATEFUL also in this field and a capable type though trip will be key as he often has the tendency to break SLOG and make his run from off the pace.

#1 BLOW TORCH wheels back with some key changes for the second start this meet. The distance change back to the ONE_TURN is key as well as the change for a better trip (WIDE, TACTIC-) that impacted his outcome on the day. The connections return with a rider though not a change in class as a positive. 

#2 COWBOY’S DREAM fits today’s condition as he makes his second start off the layoff. He should benefit from the return and subtle change in class. His C+ effort showed run in spots making a middle MOVE to provide some fitness on the two week turnaround. His back class and figures make him a player here and to work out a trip in today’s race shape (Sun) and the edge/value over the other “closer” in #3 MILLARD’S SMILE both Q4 Squares.

The two C. Block runners bookend the field and lead in the selections. #1 FACCIA BELLA will find the bulk of attention coming off the CLOSE place finish together at the wire in the 6/9 common race and overall has recorded some of the higher, most consistent figures that fit on par and with the others in this field. Going back to the 6/9 common race #7 DIAMONDS JOY was given preference of the two and similar right back in this spot. DIAMONDS JOY presented the most upside of the two going into the race and coming out as DIAMONDS JOY made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and had TRAFFIC TROUBLE trip adversity impacting the outcome and suggestive of a move forward. 

This is a tricky race that lacks a standout and requires a “value play” on that alone. #3 HEAVENLY HASH could present value with the 4^th place result last out, a BLANKET finish that included today’s rivals #7 LADY ATLANTIC the 75-1 upset winner and #6 SUPORB on that has been right there 1-2 this season. #5 ESSENTIAL BELLA could also find her form exiting that common race and SLOG on the day moves off the rail, a better draw for her to compete today.

Even a runner such as #1 MORNING LINE NEWS one that “on paper” appears off-form though number wise has improved this cycle and could move up naturally on the drop in this field. Number wise the two recent figures for MORNING LINE NEWS sit in line with the consistent #8 JOLIE RULER one that could be favored here and default public opinion as the “safer” option in this field. 

Looking at the OptixPLOT there are two extreme pace scenarios: #6 ALL ABOUT ME looks to hold dominant early speed (Quad I) and potential to “wire” this field with the early pace advantage. With that said, she is a Circle, and the lack of finish is not only present with that shape but along with the OptixNOTES showing the “Red” Keywords and NO_FINISH in the Past 3 Runlines. #4 MISS RIVER RAT sits on the opposite side of the Surface/Distance Plot as a Quad IV Square and can pick up horses from off the pace, especially with the “bunched” second flight of runners chasing the front runner. MISS RIVER RAT could present more tactical speed with the change in distance from the recent sprint races as shown on Standard (current form) to work out a first run trip.

As the “Red” Keyword and figures are marked in the Past t3 Runlines, the solid GREEN for #1 BALI BABY is an upgrade returning from a BTL effort less than a week ago and the connections must also think she can IMPROVE wheeling right back for this race. #3 SIGNATURE STREET does not hold as much GREEN though can upgraded making a CLOSE X_FLOW in her most recent start, though will take the rise in class to compete here. 

The “Fire” Contention and honest 27 SpeedRate should set up the right trip for #5 GO EMI in this field. His current form (Standard) should allow for first run on the Quad I first flight, and class edge shown visually with the Large Square something that might not as obvious “on paper” with the recent running lines and finishing positions.

Even with the noted race shape, #1 PAT’S PROPERTY should and could attempt to take this field gate-to-wire given his early speed, the rail draw and coming in fresh for J. Haran off the three month break returning to Hawthorne where he picked up his most recent win – the dominant B+ BOS last June under similar conditions to today’s event. 

#2 FLYING SAMURAI looked to hold a pace advantage on 6/15 and did playing a role in the place finish and while he could look to find similar today, things change with #8 HELIOCHROME making his return to the races in this spot. While the F. Bahena trainee will give up recency (235-days) he is back at the right spot to compete and race shape to give a look at a price. His stablemate #6 POWERFUL MAN can also be upgraded returning here. While he does not have as strong a Plot position, he has the benefit of a race and positive OptixNOTE (PREP) in his layoff return last out.

The Plot can also make a case for #3 DIAMOND DAVE returning off the layoff in here and notable with O. Mojica on the call. His position sits in line with #9 FIRST MASAMUNE – one going back to 6/23 looked enough under the radar and the right scenario to get the win on the day, though lacked any real excuse, PLODDY late with the place finish. He should find a similar race shape today and looking at the Plot, no excuses once again and can go back to him as the play at the right number. 

C. Block has been dominant on the turf and sending out a pair is tough to ignore. #5 EVEN THE WIND will make his first start here against winners and while there are hurdles with that change, this gelding holds plenty of foundation and despite taking some time for that initial win, has yet to run a “bad” race including his sneaky good debut.

As far as #2 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY he will be tested on the rise back to allowance company though the experience against winners and his top effort sits on par and in line with the current form of rivals #6 PROFESSOR HIGGINS shipping in for this race as well as his locally based stablemate, #9 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE for another live turf outfit in L. Roussel.

#4 CODE NAME will be tested with the distance change, though looking at the Plot, has enough early speed where a gate-to-wire threat is present. #1 DANVILLE would clearly move up with this race on the main track, though his grass form does not leave him out of contention here and could be overlooked with this race staying on the turf.